On Syria: Pitfalls and Possible Outcomes

16-06-2013 03:16 PM

By Abdulillah

Like you I have been reading the plethora of articles from analysts and scryers as well as statements by leaders and their cabal regarding the Syrian crisis and other issues that we seem to plagued with in the Middle-East. So in the effort to understand all of this macaronic gobbledygook for us layman out there I am compelled to try to organize them for you in a much simpler way adding a bit of my own opinions and conclusions.

For those who have waited for my article on Holistic Crop Management to eliminate desertification of land that I promised earlier, I am sorry, all preliminary analysis of this theory and practices techniques I have concluded in my research really will not work in Jordan because we have little or no real grass lands like those in Africa. Australia, or North and South America. However I am still researching and will try to put it all down in an article soon. Back to the topic at hand.

The issues starting with the Syrian one:

• The Syrian crisis seems to be the hot issue today. It appears that all of a sudden with Iran practicing its proxy war through Hezbollah of Lebanon, while Russia and China fly political air cover is winning the immediate war. One wants to call it a civil war but this type of war really only lasted a few months after the start of the civil unrest in the country just over two years ago, and since then a proxy war with the parties noted above and the US, UK, Saudi, Qatar, and others on the other side has been going on.

Civil wars are the most extreme in bloodshed and turmoil. More people die or are displaced in these conflicts than any other. They typically start with ideological, political or economic differences and in very few months escalate to those more entrenched deeply rooted identity differences typically religious or ethnic in nature as this one has. Like many others such as the US Civil War, the Protestants and Catholics wars between the UK and Ireland, Rawanda and in Lebanon in the late 1970’s and 80’s these conflicts will rage on until one side or the other wins some form of upper hand or in most cases slowly peter out due to war fatigue, but continue to simmer until the next blow-up.

What makes the Syrian one more dangerous in this writer’s opinion is the many outside players all looking to advance their political positions. The US and their allies, really believe that with the dictator Assad gone and Hezbollah without a clear friend or conduit to its benefactor Iran they can overtime work out a peace deal with the occupation forces in Palestine, as Syria is the last of the major player countries who has yet to sign a peace treaty with the occupying power. They then conclude that with this and a small Palestinian State alongside the occupying power, harmony and peace will come to the Middle-East. This all to maintain Israel’s existence and prominence and to control the oil energy supply from their economic competitors, principally China. Russia here only wants its money back from all the arms purchases made to the Syrian regime over the past 50 years and to maintain a warm water seaport for it naval ships in such a strategic area.

In my opinion this strategy is a bit naïve if not ingenious. The root of the problem in occupied Palestine is seated in religious identity and has always been so. Jerusalem and the entity who controls it is the main issue, followed by right of return, and justice in acquiring back what was illegally taken. We can argue the minutia of each of these items but in reality this is the crux of this particular issue. And no Mr. Blair you cannot take religion out of the equation by trying to morph into secularity. As you can see it does not work even in your country. It merely simmers with the main fuel ingredients for a blow up still present. Further the religious identity although not explicitly stated by yourself a proclaimed evangelist Christian is also the crux of the issue to the West.

On the other side, that being Iran, Hezbollah and what’s left of the actual Syrian army. Their desire is to not change the status quo. They want dictator-ship and preferably without representation from the Sunni majority or with token representation as practiced in many Western nations of today.

Meanwhile Iran really wants to be regarded as a major player in the Middle East. To do so they will wreak havoc all over the Middle East, from Lebanon and Syria, to Iraq and Bahrain and even the small islands in the Gulf. Where to win the hearts and minds of the general Arab public they will instigate and back any entity who will fight the Israelis in a proxy war against their arch enemy the US, who is also trying to starve them to death, while thwarting them from reaching their desired historical Persian prominence they so much desire.

This is what is scaring the Saudi’s and Gulf states a lot. They know the historical desires of Iran for Persian prominence over the Arabian Peninsula and as such have thrown their hat with the other group even though they all do not see eye to eye on many of the other issues. It’s amazing how situations of strategic nature can bring strange bed fellows. Sometimes one wonders if any originality of thought even takes place or if power is all consuming that clear thinking actual take place.

If the Assad regime wins, Jordan will be plagued with more than ½ million refugees that will not be allowed to return or selectively chosen to return depending on their ideological leanings or non-ideological preferences. This will leave Jordan with a massive burden that cannot be tolerated and as such will be forced to repatriate them across the border possibly instigating even more turmoil between Jordan and the Assad Regime and Iran. If we take this another step into the abyss of darkness, They may then feel empowered with this victory to destabilize Jordan either by stoking internal strife between in its leaders and people. Jordan and its people need to be aware of this now so as to work collectively such that our nation does not fall like theirs in disarray, chaos and turmoil.

• The energy crisis in Jordan:

This issue with energy has been discussed by many analysts in Jordan. Our government feels it is necessary to raise electricity rates, this being advocated by our creditors and benefactors as well as many other analysts as a way to limit or budget deficits. Some of our leading scientist and economists are pushing nuclear power as the long term solution while others have been pushing for renewable energies (both have technical, cost and implementation issues, while one is strong on one end it is weaker on the other). In the meantime the ordinary citizen is going to be hit hard yet again. It’s hard to have growth and prosperity when the countries pot of wealth is being diminished just to pay lenders.

I am not sure if anyone has actually thought of the issues clearly. On one hand we have present day regional defense issues that will be necessary to contain so cutting the defense budget (albeit very high against GDP as compared to other nations) is not presently the best solution, none-the-less need to managed better. How about cutting back on the government itself, by making it smaller? Sounds easy does it not? Cut government workers and agencies and the civil services it provides and try to balance the pain more effectively. However we must be aware. If we do this we will put many on the streets of Jordan who otherwise rely on the government for jobs and if laid off will join the ever growing unemployed, further burdening our economy. If we elect to do this we must do this with sensitivity and planning such that an immediate shock to the economic situation will not occur, that can push us closer to the metaphorical economic cliff.

My fellow citizens these and many issue plaguing our region and country are serious and can lead to major openings to strife, chaos and turmoil. We must be fully aware and vigilant and must come to terms with our issues collectively, knowing that as a leadership and a people we must work together and belt tightening at both ends will be necessary.

Our transparency to each other and our listening to each other for ideas are paramount in winning this and many battles ahead. Our leadership must be clear and look for consensus between it and the people, whilst we the people need to understand that we are the backbone and structure by which the body politic of this nation cannot otherwise stand, and as such must endure whatever situation we are thrust into. For united we stand and divided we too will fall.

God Bless Jordan and it People

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