By Abdulilah - Yes Jordan has limited political power both due to its size, population, economic and military capacity as it relates to much of the world; however this is not the subject I would like to tackle with you today. The subject at hand is Jordan’s ability to generate enough power to supply its citizens in the coming years.
Why now you may ask, well my interest in this subject started last year when we had that great big snowfall and people were hollering and crying about how we lost power, and how badly the government did in clearing the streets, etc… Moreover; how some in the government reacted by blaming the electricity company for not being able to fix the lines quickly and threats of lawsuits.
For those who cried the loudest about the shut downs, let me very frank and honest with you all, it matters not in which country you are in when natural calamities like this occur, they all tend to struggle. In fact right after our fiasco in Jordan, over a million lost power in the US from freak and very cold storms, that many were without power for much longer than we were and many also died as well on their roads from traffic accidents related to these freak storms.
As for those in government that looked to pave the way towards getting this fixed by filing lawsuits, I first have to tell you that the electricity company is NOT responsible for cleaning the streets such that it can get to the downed power lines, it is Municipalities and State governments that are responsible. Well as you all can imagine, the electricity companies hit back by publishing documents that made you all look pretty bad in comparison. Goes to show;as the old adage says, “People in glass houses should not throw stones”.
Well I really wanted to learn something about this power generation issue in Jordan, so I dug a bit, and it seems one learns more from outsiders of our country than those that are supposed to represent you.
I have found a few papers and notices for tenders such as the white paper commissioned by the Jordan Atomic Energy Commission back in late 2011, by Worley Parsons and the Infrastructure’s Journal dated August 2013 for Jordan’s 2nd renewable energy tender…by the way I have always wondered why we never trust our own experts to do this? I guess either we do not have them or they will never be believed.
By the way you should also be cautioned that Worley Parsons paper was commissioned to push for a nuclear energy program and not against it. So putting aside the very applicable issues of safety, etc… of a nuclear program we can ascertain some of Jordan’s Power generation dilemma for the future, as follows:
•Jordan is completely dependent on imports to cover its power energy needs. At the time that these papers were commissioned, 96% percent of Jordan’s electricity power generation was fueled by imports. 80% relied on natural gas from Egyptian natural gas which has many times been interrupted by explosions of the pipeline which by the way also supplied some of Israel’s southern regions and cities. I do not believe that much has changed since then.
•Jordan’s electricity generation plants are relatively old and many are due to be decommissioned by 2020, just 6 years from now, where in this time frame the widening gap between power generation and growing electricity consumption, will widen the gap between capacity and use even more than it is. According to the Worley Parsons paper, the projected electricity demand translates into an electricity need of 15,000 MW of electricity, up from 2,662 MW of electricity in 2007. A growth rate of ~ 6%.
•The National Electricity Company NEPCO has tried to address this shortage by building some new plants such as the 370 MW Amman East IPP(the first independent power generation project in Jordan), The Qatrana 373MW IPP, The 573MW IPP3 and the 241 MW IPP 4. As you can see this is well short of what will be required to cover the above widening gap. More-over getting the required fuel to power these plants is going to be hard and very costly. This could very well mean that if we do not get on this issue immediately, it will be inevitable that electricity rates will go up. It is a supply/demand issue.
•In 2011 The Kingdom’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR) under its first round of tenders for renewable energy has accepted from a total of 23 applications including 12 wind, 15 solar photovoltaic and 2 concentrating and 5 concentrated solar photovoltaic power projects, but approved only 2 wind and 12 solar photovoltaic projects. The 2 wind projects are to generate up to 200MW while the 12 solar photovoltaic projects around 170MW. A second tender has recently been issued but nothing yet approved. This first tenderrequest allowed for the proposed plants to be concentrated in and around the Maan region in particular the 8.75 sq. kilometer region dubbed as the Maan Development Region, both because of its suitability and more for its streamlined and flexible regulatory allowances than would be otherwise.
Exactly why we as a nation need these types of regions is beyond me, since it should be abundantly clear to all we need power generation and renewable energy is the best from a hazardous standpoint.
Note; that few if any of these new plants will be financed or built by Jordan firms as we have very little expertise in these types of power generation, but by those from abroad. So unless we start to learn fast, we will always be at someone’s mercy outside of our own people. Do not get me wrong here, I am not against any investor, but I surely would like it to benefit our own firms first of possible, if they exist.
•The 2nd round tender recently posted, MEMR explicitly stated that is wanted to shift the focus away from the Maan region to the north and east of the country and that proposals submitted with these newer regions will be prioritized. According to the tender the key driver for this shift in geographic regions is to “ease the pressure on the already fragile national grid in the southern part of the country.” Whereas the northern and eastern grids of Jordan are currently less saturated. This should tell us all that NEPCO and its distribution arms of IDECO in the north Irbid and eastern regions, JEPCO Amman/central/north region, EDCO Mann southern and northwest region , and the many other small distribution companies connected to the state wide grid are outdated and are in need of expansion.
The tender further states the power purchase agreement between the two is an important consideration, “first because there is an asymmetry of interest for each of the transmission company and the distribution companies to adopt renewable energy based power.
Second, varying experience levels mean that power purchase agreement negotiations may be laborious with certain parties”. Why exactly is there an asymmetry of interest between these distribution companies is beyond me, as the interest of the country should come first. Furthermore who actually owns these distribution companies? In most cases that I am aware of, distribution companies although they may be owned by private utilities they are regulated because of national importance, unlike that of the power generation companies.
A simple way to put it is the wires and poles that deliver electricity to the public are regulated utilities, while those who generate and supply this grid are typically unregulated and all can use the national grid at a regulated cost.
The power generation companies should be able to sell electricity to the public directly, using the national grid. As such; electricity rates and types can be competitively floated openly in a freer environment where the public can decide on whom to purchase their electricity from, and from their own personal preferences, on how it is generated. For instance someone with a green eye on protecting the environment can decide of purchasing his electricity from only renewable power generation sources, etc…
•Jordan has been recognized as one of the top 5 most deprived water resource countries in the world. As such, with the need to pull water from regions far away and from very deep wells like those of the Disi deep aquifer project recently placed on-line last year, and from low lying areas such as the Jordan Valley where the treatment of brackish water and the elevation to pump water is very steep, the Azraq water basin, and from collected surface water mostly in the northern regions of Jordan, makesJordan even more dependent on trying to build desalination plants in the Aqaba region.
The Red-Dead project appears to be dead at this time however, it is my opinion that such mega projects rarely ever work even when only the one country trying to implement them does it, let alone two (2) countries with different reasons as to why they want such a project in the first place.
The growing need for water as such will require even more power and energy generation making this widening gap between the present and future needs even wider, that as of 2020, we will start to see some cracks in the present system if we do not get on-line with new power generation ASAP.
The government at least has recognized this and has started to put a plan to get some desalination plants on-line by 2045 (By the way desalination will take approximately 1MW of power to convert 1MCM of sea water to drinkable water).
The Red to Dead project was first anticipated to provide for the power generation to fuel these plants from Hydro power generation due to elevation changes, however as noted, this does not appear this will be on-line by the anticipated 2018 date for many reasons which we can cite and debate in later pieces.
•Arguments for nuclear power are pretty convincing, it is one of the cleanest ways to generate power from and environmental perspective where carbon emissions are reduced or nil. However it also brings along much baggage with it as well. This includes a need for a high safety program, water for cooling and a cost for uranium enrichment or fuel purchases from overseas suppliers as well as spent fuel disposal cost. We can argue these issues independently but what we cannot argue is the need for power generation now and in the near future.
My brothers and sisters, one can see our dilemma with power generation, in the coming years. The combination of a growing demand, imported fuel interruptions, cost, and many other factors associated with this issue is going to either allow our country to flourish or slowly wane in the coming years.
Unless we get a handle on this very important issue quickly, as many of these new facilities proposed or otherwise projected, and water issues that will require desalination and the power needs to fuel these plants, cannot come without some pain and money. Or as earlier stated we will not join the rest of the flourishing countries.
It would help a lot more if our leaders can actually speak about these issues with some detail instead of us having to root around to try to find out what is actually going on. A bit more transparency and education of the public always helps. We are not stupid, nor should you think that you can push such important issues through without our input. So come prepared to discuss and debate, your positions otherwise we will know that you do not understand them yourselves but are only mouth pieces for others.
You may want to start by using some of the monies slated by the GCC sates for these worthy endeavors, instead of sitting on the cash hoping it will hatch and make more money. Remember money is like manure if not spread around it does little good.
May God Bless Jordan and its People
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