ammonnews.net

By Amer Al Sabaileh

The Kremlin earlier warned outside powers — presumably the United States — against wading into the crisis with “ultimatums.”

The Arab world today is wondering why the Russians are taking such an ambiguous position. Russia has never had such a negative image and it is continuing to lose any credit it held in the past. The Russians have the chance to demonstrate sensitivity to the voices of the young Arab generation and the intricate and problematic issues inherent in the heterogeneous politics of the area. On the contrary it seems that now their position has moved to relegating these issues to a policy of self interest. In sharp contrast, we are finally witnessing a complete shift in policy towards assisting in the Middle East populations on the part of Obama's administration.

From the moment the winds of change started to blow over the Arab world, the Russians have declared their complete opposition to uprisings calling for more democratic regimes. The Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov went as far as to warn the West that it was counterproductive to encourage the spread of revolutions in the Middle East.

Yet again, we are witnessing today a Russian position which is supportive of the anti-democratic system. Its pragmatic choice to support totalitarian regimes is doing nothing to help its image or standing on the international scene. While the whole world has been shocked by Gaddafi's brutal massacres and for the first time in history Arab people are actually welcoming a US and NATO intervention, Russia is opposing any form of military intervention in Libya.

The current changes in the Arab world have bred confused and conflicting reactions even inside the American camp, especially from its historic allies. The former IDF Chief of Staff, Gabi Ashkenazi claimed that " the moderate camp among the traditional Arab leadership is weakening”. He also noted the “fascinating phenomenon” whereby power is shifting to the people thanks to social networks online.

When these words are uttered by one of America's chief allies, there is evidently real confusion in the US camp.

The Russians are trying to find a role in this chaotic situation and it would be all too easy to exploit the current unease among certain Arab and Israeli leaders who are now under pressure from their historic US ally to tow the line. By playing on these tensions Russia could carve a role for itself as appearing to offer shelter and support for the 'victims' of US policy . At a time when these countries may be confused or reluctant to stick their necks out too far, and with Mubarak's lesson in mind, the Russian proposal to escape American pressure could well be tempting. Enticing US allies into its own camp would also give leverage to Russian leaders in putting pressure on the US administration to revise their policies in the area.

This was proved when Russian, Israeli and Saudi leaders discussed the ramifications of the Arab uprising in Moscow. Many believe that Israel and Saudi Arabia have mutual interests in circumventing the US policy that supports uprisings in Libya and Egypt.

It is inevitable that changes are coming to the Arab world so wouldn't it be better for the present leaders to be an integral part of the process and prove their willingness to represent their people's wishes? Perhaps the Russian leaders too should take stock of the current situation and revise their policy. With such a strong undercurrent for change, the tide is turning and it would be highly unwise to swim against it.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh
http://amersabaileh.blogspot.com