Ammon News - A record-breaking hot year is almost certain by 2030 as the climate crisis intensifies, the UN’s World Meteorological Organization has warned.

With an El Niño event expected later this year, the global temperature record could fall as soon as 2027.

Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are continuing to rise, trapping more heat and driving more extreme weather, including the record-breaking heatwave that has hit the UK and Europe this week.

Global heating is already estimated to be taking one life every minute, with the toll likely to rise unless emissions fall rapidly.

The report, produced for the WMO by the UK Met Office, predicts an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest ever recorded. There is a 75% chance that the average temperature for the five-year period from 2026 to 2030 will be more than 1.5C above the pre-industrial average.

Simon Stiell, the UN climate chief, said: “The latest heatwave in Europe is a brutal reminder of the spiralling impacts of the climate crisis, both human and economic. Many other parts of the world are also getting hit hard, such as India and other parts of Asia.”

“Protecting human lives, businesses and economies from extreme heat and the many other soaring costs of climate change is core business for every nation, and it starts with kicking the fossil fuel addiction much faster,” he said, noting that clean power is now cheaper than fossil fuels and faster to produce.

Scientists have repeatedly warned that warming of more than 1.5C risks unleashing more severe heatwaves, droughts, storms and floods, and makes it harder for communities to adapt. However, every fraction of a degree of warming avoided reduces damage.

The Paris agreement goal of limiting global temperature rises to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels is assessed over a 20-year period, but is now unlikely to be met. The weaker 2C target remains within reach if urgent action is taken. The WMO report found a less than a 1% chance that any single year from 2026 to 2030 will exceed 2C above the pre-industrial average.

Global temperatures are expected to be boosted by El Niño, the natural and cyclical weather pattern now expected by the end of the year. The latest forecast from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is a 96% chance of an El Niño in December 2026 to February 2027. There is a 35% chance of a super El Niño.

El Niño events form due to changes in winds in the Pacific Ocean, which cause heat stored in the ocean to be released into the atmosphere. Dr Leon Hermanson, the lead author of the WMO report, said: “There is an El Niño predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year.”

The Met Office is the WMO’s lead centre for annual to decadal climate prediction and synthesises predictions from 13 institutes around the world. The new report predicts the next five winters in the Arctic are set to be 2.8C above recent averages, meaning the region is heating up more than three times faster than the global average.

The report also makes rainfall predictions, suggesting northern Europe, the Sahel, Alaska and Siberia are likely to be wetter than usual from May to September over the next five years, while the Amazon is likely to be drier.

The Guardian