James J. Zogby

This past week, Israeli, Lebanese and US leaders were busy patting themselves on the back announcing the completion of an Israeli/Lebanese ceasefire agreement. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu crowed about Israel victorious and now the unquestioned dominant force throughout the Middle East. Hezbollah declared a “divine victory” greater than their 2006 victory. Meanwhile, US leaders congratulated themselves for their leadership in a settlement they hoped would “advance broader peace and prosperity in the region.”

To say I’m skeptical is an understatement. At least the Lebanese will have some respite from Israel’s relentless bombings. And Israeli forces will begin withdrawing from Lebanon’s south. Nevertheless, I’m not celebrating. Too many have died, too much bitterness sown, no lessons learned, and too many issues unresolved.

In announcing the ceasefire, President Biden said that Israelis and Lebanese can return home, except that, for hundreds of thousands of Lebanese, their homes no longer exist. Further, the ceasefire is tentative, and its terms are decidedly lopsided.

Once again, like in 2006, Hezbollah miscalculated. Demonstrating solidarity with the Palestinians in Gaza may have seemed honourable, but they kicked the hornets’ nest of a foe whose ruthlessness knows no limits and faces no restraints. Israel responded with complete impunity, violating all norms of international law and civilised behaviour.

Now, Hezbollah has been weakened, forced to relocate north of the Litani River and with less claim as a feared deterrent against Israeli dominance. Their ability to use their armed presence as the pretorian guard protecting the ancient regime in Lebanon

is unclear.

While Hezbollah certainly plays a role in Iran’s regional strategy, it is also a movement born of problems internal to Lebanon. Hezbollah represents an aggrieved Shi’a community that is long felt disadvantaged in Lebanese affairs. They suffered the consequences of Israel’s war with the PLO, with its villages occupied by the Israeli military for decades. With Israel being forced to end its occupation in 2000, Hezbollah’s stature grew.

Most estimates place the Shi’a community as Lebanon’s largest sectarian grouping. They harbour a deep sense of disenfranchisement and are unwilling, especially after what they have recently endured, to accept a subordinate status.

While some say Lebanon must “get it together,” elect a new president and establish a government, that is not nearly enough. Ending the corrupt, outmoded sectarian system is essential. Whether one blames Hezbollah for this war or not, without real reform, the inequities of Lebanon’s sectarian divisions will cause tensions and disruptions, continuing to risk the country’s recovery.

Netanyahu’s crowing about his great successes in defying world opinion and defeating Israel’s foes was both frightening and disturbing. He further threatened the continued use of Israel’s unmatched military might to ensure Israel’s security and dominance. But here too a reckoning must be addressed.

As we have learned from past wars, there are wounds that do not heal. Israel may be feared, but it is hated more than ever. Palestinians, many Lebanese and Arabs in general are now more hostile to Israel than before.

Netanyahu and the majority of Israelis have learned no lessons at all. Their blind self-righteousness emboldened by US support has metastasised into a cancerous sense of impunity. Their genocidal campaign in Gaza hell-bent on the destruction of Hamas continues, but another goal is increasingly clear, to liquidate the Palestinian presence in most of Gaza and establish a permanent regime there. In the West Bank and East Jerusalem, the Israelis are also determined to subdue and annex and expand their settlement presence.

Despite Israel’s military dominance, Israelis are not safer, daily falling victim to resistance born of anger at their brutal occupation policies. They will not be secure or achieve broader regional acceptance without change. And given the far-right’s hold over Israeli politics, change is not forthcoming.

Lebanese and Israeli leadership failures are distressing, but US policymakers’ are worse for their significant responsibility for what’s transpired. For decades, the US turned a blind eye to Israeli settlement expansion, policies that sabotaged the peace process, contributed to Palestinian governance’s collapse and Hamas’ rise, the Palestinian people’s subjugation, and Israel’s extremist right-wing’s empowerment. Instead of accepting our responsibility for this mess, we’ve armed Israel to the teeth and covered for its crimes in international fora.

The “deal” we negotiated between Israel and Lebanon addresses none of the conflict’s root causes and gives Israel a freer hand to pursue its goal of a “pax Israelica,” which will produce greater conflict, not the hoped broader regional peace.

The writer is president of the Washington-based Arab-American Institute