Ammon News - Muasher: Jordan has established solid connections with Washington and is capable of working with the Trump administration.
Conversations: Trump plans to come back to carry out the deal of the century.
Shanikat: Jordan's beliefs and political stance oppose Trump's views.
Ammon - Munther Al-Faouri - The initial results of the 2024 US presidential elections show Donald Trump leading with over 270 electoral college votes, setting up potential challenges and opportunities for the Middle East. Trump's policies towards Israel and Iran, as well as his plans to reduce military presence, could shift the region's dynamics.
In Jordan, we are closely monitoring the situation, as our relationship with the United States under the Trump administration requires careful diplomacy and balance to protect our national interests while benefiting from American support.
Dr. Marwan Muasher, an ex-Jordanian Foreign Minister and politician, stated to Ammon that it is evident that Donald Trump's campaign is gaining momentum as most swing states appear to be leaning towards him. Additionally, there is a growing number of Republicans in the Senate, potentially reaching a majority of 55 members. The House of Representatives, on the other hand, is still seeing a tight competition. Ultimately, the new Trump administration is expected to have a broader support from the public. Al-Muasher stated that Jordan is observing the new administration's actions on the Palestinian issue, as their previous stance on the "deal of the century" did not support it due to its potential harm to Palestinian rights. This could impact Jordan regarding the two-state solution, but the country has strong ties with decision-makers in the US from both political parties, ensuring a similar approach to dealing with the new administration. Despite concerns, American aid to Jordan is expected to remain stable under Joe Biden.
Al-Maasher believes the Palestinian issue is the main concern, waiting to see Trump's plans as he has not disclosed his intentions.
This lack of clarity could lead to increased support for Israel. Netanyahu has already congratulated Trump, anticipating challenges ahead for Jordan, based on Trump's past record with the Palestinian issue. Dr. Munther Al-Hawarat, a writer and political analyst, echoed Al-Maasher's sentiments to Ammon, stating that based on Trump's past statements and actions during his first term, there is little hope for Jordan aligning its strategy in support of the Palestinian cause and the establishment of a fully sovereign Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital, in line with the two-state solution, cessation of settlements, and the refugees' right to self-determination.
During his first term, Trump resolved all of these problems and is unlikely to change his stance as he aligns with Israel on Jerusalem and believes that Israel's accomplishments are legitimate, while Palestinians have no claim to anything beyond what they currently possess.Hence, his discussion of a potential Palestinian state would consist of isolated territories or concentrated population areas with inhabitants, rather than complete autonomy as outlined in international resolutions. Regarding Jerusalem, Trump acknowledges it as the sole capital under occupation.
Concerning refugees, he abolished UNRWA, placing Jordan in a tough spot as the top host of refugees. If it naturalizes 800,000 Palestinian refugees, a demographic threat looms. The lack of "communicative chemistry" between King Abdullah II and Trump from a political standpoint seems to have improved after the king reached out to Trump during an assassination attempt, showing concern for his safety and recovery. This could be seen as a positive development, given Trump's unpredictable behavior and temperamental personality, and it reflects his influence on Jordan.
He mentioned that the Gulf states understand the advantages of Trump, but the concern lies in his support for Israel, particularly regarding his pledge to attack Iran's nuclear program, indicating backing of extreme right-wing actions. This could escalate tensions and widen conflict as Iran may target American interests and bases in response, as implied by Trump's statement to Netanyahu to act swiftly without repercussions. He emphasized that Trump will revive the deal of the century and might broaden it to involve more countries due to America's strong leverage, despite previous setbacks due to the Gaza conflict.
Trump has a clear plan for the issue unlike Biden, who proposed a two-state solution without concrete steps. There is disagreement between Biden and Netanyahu personally, but Washington remains supportive of Israel and Trump. Netanyahu was the first leader to congratulate Biden in the 2020 election, but Trump's unpredictability may affect their relationship.
He concluded the dialogues by saying that Trump believes in one thing only, which is “the victor and does not stand with the weak.”
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