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By Amer Al Sabaileh

After the conclusion of visits by most of the Middle Eastern leaders to the White House, it seems that there will be no concrete change in the American way of dealing with the Syrian crisis. Actually, some observers believe that raising the issue of the use of chemical weapons in Syria aims to give the US an extra strong card of pressures on Moscow.

This explains the “non-aggressive” tone in Obama’s words during his meeting with King Abdullah II, when he tackled the case of chemical weapons in Syria. The no fly zone over Syria might be the new influential threat to be used by the American administration, especially after the failed attempt to attack a Russian civil airplane over Syria, the thing that pushed Russia to call off the flying of its civil planes in Syrian skies. However, in both his meeting with King Abdullah and Amir Hamad of Qatar, Obama insisted on achieving a political transition in Syria that will lead to a new pluralist democratic Syria, but of course without President Bashar Al Assad, who lost his legitimacy according to Obama.

On the other hand, many analysts question the motives behind Jordan’s decision to send the Syrian refugees case to the UN Security Council. Some believe that this move could be the vase course of applying the buffer zone inside the Syrian territory. Yet this Jordanian step may, in fact, set Jordan free from any kind of pressures that some countries might apply on Jordan to push it toward having a role in Syria. Moreover, during his Washington visit King Abdullah II chose the time that anticipates his meeting with President Obama to underline the impossibility of any Jordanian military intervention in Syria.

While the Syrian crisis goes on, the American administration seems to pay more attention on the Middle East peace process. Obama renewed his request for Jordan to play an active role between the Israelis and the Palestinians, and to work more to accomplish a broader base for normalization between Arabs and Israelis.

It is important to notice also the two different visions regarding the regional settlement introduced to Washington by the two new regional blocs: the first consisting of Qatar, Turkey and Egypt, and the second of Jordan, UAE and Saudi Arabia. This explains why in his interview with Obama, king Abdullah II mentioned the presence of UAE’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed in Washington. The Jordanian monarch urged the American President to listen to the vision of the Emirati sheikh described by the king Abdullah as Jordan's strategic ally in addition to Saudi Arabia. Another thing to mention is the absence of the historical political players in the region. Personally I was amazed recently to see the UK being far from what is really happening on the ground. I had this impression from a direct talk to the British minister for the Middle East, who seemed to be involved in the chemical weapons story but at the same time out of touch on all of what is going on in the whole Middle East.

The phase of settlements in the region may be on the doors, from the Syrian to the regional one. This means that the coming weeks will bring more developments everywhere. Still, chaos might be part of this transitional phase. At the end, I conclude by quoting the words of a senior diplomat regarding the difficulty to achieve a political settlement in Syria: “Conflicts out of Syria is much bigger than conflicts inside Syria”

Dr.Amer Al Sabaileh
http://amersabaileh.blogspot.com