By Amer Al Sabaileh

Over the recent weeks, the Syrian army has employed a noticeable escalation in the use of power. Some have attributed the increased level of violence to a military strategy that hopes to regain influence internally to position itself for a future political solution in Syria.

Many observers believe that the two major international players, Russia and America, have been trying to keep the violence within Syria’s geographical borders, to ensure there is “no expansion” of the crisis. However, the aftershocks of the crisis have started to appear through political and security expressions in confrontations locally and further abroad, from North Korea, Iran and Syria to the black sea, Africa and Americas.

Several news reports recently referred to a mysterious American role near the Syrian borders. It appears they are using military tactics aimed to weaken the regime but not topple it, in order to impose conditions on the regime rather than allowing it to collapse altogether. A key part of this is the insistence by the Americans that Bashar Al Assad leave Syria.

Some analysts argue that political settlement in Syria is not at the top of America’s agenda, as it might be a single part of political settlement in the region. In this context, the new position of Hamas is considered a political victory, while the major obstacle now is Hezbollah. This may explain increasing talk about a role for Hezbollah in Syria. It is almost as if the US is saying: the Lebanese party should be part of the political settlement in Syria.

The border triangle between Jordan, Iraq and Syria is another situation America is using to improve its negotiation position. Recently, the status of this area has been ambiguous. There is suspicion in Syria that this border is the source of weapons smuggled into the country as well as a launching pad for spy operations inside Syria.

In the end, it is important to remember that the path of the Syrian crisis would have been very different if Jordan had played a more hostile role toward Syria. In fact, it seems there is a military refusal to be part of any hostile attack against Syria. However, the coming days will be full of events and surprises on all levels, regional and international.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh
http://amersabaileh.blogspot.com

* Photo courtesy of AFP