Dr. Hamad Kasasbeh

What is happening in global energy markets is no longer simply another rise in oil prices. It has become a broader crisis exposing the fragility of the supply system itself. The problem is not a lack of resources, but the ability to transport, refine and deliver them at the required cost and speed. When shipping lanes, refineries, freight networks and inventories come under pressure together, the shock quickly spreads into transport, industry, food and inflation.

Historical comparisons show the scale of the shift. The International Energy Agency has described the disruption linked to the Strait of Hormuz as the largest in oil-market history in terms of affected supply, exceeding the impact of the 1973 crisis. Yet today’s situation is more complex because the pressure extends beyond crude oil to refined products, gas and maritime transport, making a return to balance more difficult even when production and tanker traffic begin to recover.

One of the clearest signs was the agreement announced on 9 October 2026 to make more than 300,000 tonnes of Russian diesel available immediately, with additional volumes to follow. The importance of the move goes beyond the amount of fuel. The need for diesel pushed Washington to ease some restrictions linked to Russian fuel, showing how supply security can reorder priorities when alternatives become limited.

The deeper problem is not crude oil alone. Energy-sector estimates point to a significant global shortage of refined products while large volumes have also been drawn from inventories intended to provide a buffer during shocks. The world is therefore consuming not only energy, but part of the safety margin that protects it. This is why the International Energy Agency and its member countries have released substantial quantities from emergency reserves, with particular attention to diesel.

The Strait of Hormuz illustrates the problem clearly. Gulf crude exports have improved, but refined-fuel flows remain more exposed while shipping and insurance costs have risen. The return of tankers does not automatically mean a return to normal. A bottleneck can move from the field to the refinery, from the refinery to the tanker, or from the tanker to the maritime passage itself.

The picture becomes more complicated around the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab. When Hormuz comes under pressure, pipelines and alternative ports become more important, but those routes are neither unlimited nor immune from risk. The crisis has also extended beyond oil to liquefied natural gas trade. Energy security is therefore increasingly about the number of available routes and their ability to keep operating under pressure, not simply about production volumes.

These developments are reshaping the meaning of energy security. For years, markets focused on lower inventories, lower costs and just-in-time supply. The current environment is pushing in another direction: larger stocks, more diverse sources, alternative export routes and spare refining capacity. The priority is gradually shifting from securing the cheapest supply to securing the most reliable and resilient supply.

The consequences do not stop at the energy sector. Higher diesel prices raise the cost of transport, agriculture and industry, then move into food, goods and services. For an energy-importing country such as Jordan, the lesson goes beyond monitoring Brent prices. It means diversifying supply sources, strengthening strategic stocks, accelerating domestic and renewable energy, and reviewing logistical alternatives before an external disruption becomes domestic pressure.

The current crisis shows that the world may have sufficient resources without having a permanent guarantee that they can reach consumers. The real danger appears when several links are under pressure at once: a strait, a refinery, a pipeline, shipping fleets and declining inventories. Future energy security will therefore be measured not only by production and reserves, but by the ability to diversify sources and routes and prepare for shocks before they occur. The resources exist, but access to them has become part of economic security itself.