Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

It is a mistake to believe that the region can emerge from the post-October 7 era as it was before. More importantly, what we are witnessing is not a passing crisis, but a prolonged one. Long crises place enormous pressures on states, but they also create space for changes that can become genuine threatsor opportunities, if they are approached properly.

Looking at the current regional transformation, particularly Israel’s continued effort to dismantle the idea of “unity of fronts” at its roots by reshaping the security geography of Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank and Gaza, Jordan faces direct challenges, foremost among them those connected to the West Bank and its relationship with Israel.

But viewing this phase only through the lens of threats may not be enough. Challenges can also create opportunities. Jordan’s geography is central to many of the projects being discussed for the future, whether in transportation networks, railways or energy. This means Jordan must begin thinking seriously about how to benefit from what is coming, rather than focusing only on how to protect itself from its risks.

But preparing for what lies ahead begins, above all, at home. Preparation also requires breaking out of inertia, changing our tools and our thinking, and refusing to approach new realities with the mindset and instruments of the past.

Looking inward becomes even more important during prolonged crises. As crises continue, states are forced to reassess their internal challenges and their relationship with their citizens. Issues that could once be postponed gradually become urgent. While many of these challenges are clearly economic and related to difficult living conditions, limiting the problem to economics alone would be a mistake. There are also social and political challenges, and a growing need for clear direction about what comes next.


For this reason, putting the house in order cannot be about simply getting through the current crisis. It must be about preparing for the future. A state that remains permanently in a defensive mode, preparing for crises, containing them and simply trying to survive them, is operating in a way that ultimately contradicts the idea of state-building. State-building requires long-term projects with clear direction, projects capable of anticipating change rather than merely reacting to it after it happens.


This is why Jordan needs the Jordanian national project to become the defining framework for the next phase. That project should begin with building a Jordanian narrative, strengthening national belonging and making Jordanian affairs a priority in domestic thinking, particularly at a time when external issues can easily overshadow internal concerns.


Being Jordanian today is an important title in itself. But it requires collective thinking, not individual thinking. The thinking of a state, not merely the thinking of individuals. It also requires a social environment that strengthens national identity and national thinking, while preventing any single intellectual or ideological pattern from dominating the shaping of society’s identity.


A long-term national project cannot be complete without an enlightenment-oriented cultural policy that allows space for different ideas and perspectives. Cultural enlightenment is ultimately a state project, and the institutions of the state are the tools capable of carrying it forward. But this also requires those institutions to be capable of identifying early signs of social risk and addressing them before they become deeply rooted and far more difficult to deal with.


The strength of a state is not measured only by its ability to confront danger after it emerges, but by its ability to recognise its early signs, anticipate it, and put preventive solutions in place before it becomes a crisis. Jordan needs a cultural and social environment in which citizens feel that they are part of the national project, and in which they can see opportunities and a future beyond the current sense of frustration and economic hardship.


The next phase will therefore not only test Jordan’s ability to confront external threats. It will also test the state’s ability to build from within and turn its difficulties into opportunities for development. And we must remember that, in prolonged crises, the survival of states cannot be the only objective. What matters even more is knowing where they want to be once the crisis is over and to undertake the necessary steps to achieve that outcome.