Dr. Mahmoud Gudra Anakrih

The Middle East is entering a period of heightened strategic uncertainty, with the possibility of a direct confrontation between Iran and the Gulf states becoming more difficult to dismiss. Years of accumulated tensions, competing security visions, and the erosion of durable diplomatic solutions have created a volatile environment in which miscalculation could carry far-reaching consequences.

At the center of this shifting landscape are two competing approaches to regional influence. Iran has continued to build its power projection strategy around military capabilities, missile development, and an extensive network of allied armed groups operating across the region. These networks have allowed Tehran to extend its reach beyond its borders and shape regional dynamics through indirect means.

The Gulf states, by contrast, have pursued a different path, strengthening their defense capabilities, investing heavily in advanced military systems, expanding economic resilience, and reinforcing strategic partnerships. Yet questions remain about the long-term reliability of external security guarantees, particularly as global powers reassess their priorities and recalibrate their commitments in the Middle East.

It is within this complex environment that Jordan’s strategic importance has become increasingly evident. Jordan is not merely a longtime partner of the Gulf states; it represents a critical pillar of regional stability. Its significance stems from a combination of factors: decades of trusted relations with Gulf capitals, the consistency of its foreign policy, the professionalism of its security institutions, and a national security doctrine that views the stability of the Gulf as inseparable from Jordan’s own security interests.

For decades, Jordan has pursued a foreign policy defined by pragmatism, restraint, and strategic consistency. Despite the region’s frequent upheavals, Amman has avoided policies driven by ideological ambition or regional adventurism. Instead, it has focused on maintaining stability, strengthening Arab cooperation, and addressing shared security challenges.

One of Jordan’s greatest strategic assets has been the continuity of its approach. Regardless of changing governments or shifting regional circumstances, Amman has maintained a clear position: the security of the Gulf is a fundamental component of Arab security and a direct extension of Jordan’s national interests. This principle has translated into sustained military cooperation, intelligence coordination, and security partnerships with Gulf states.

This distinguishes Jordan from many regional fragile alliances that have historically been shaped by short-term interests or temporary political calculations. Amman has not treated Gulf security as a transactional relationship or a diplomatic bargaining chip. Instead, it has approached it as a long-term strategic commitment. This consistency has earned Jordan a high degree of trust among Gulf partners, particularly in areas such as military training, intelligence cooperation, counterterrorism operations, and joint security initiatives.

Meanwhile, Gulf security faces a growing challenge from Iran’s regional strategy. Over the past several decades, Tehran has invested heavily in cultivating a network of armed partners and proxy groups, allowing it to influence regional affairs without relying solely on conventional military power. These networks have become deeply intertwined with many of the conflicts and crises that have shaped the Arab world in recent years.

Several moments of heightened tension between Iran and Gulf states have brought the region close to direct confrontation. In these instances, the United States has played a central role in containing escalation through diplomatic engagement, military deterrence, and crisis management, largely driven by concerns over global energy markets, international trade, and broader regional stability.

However, continued reliance on the same level of American involvement cannot be taken for granted. Washington has increasingly shifted its strategic attention toward other priorities, including competition with China in the Indo-Pacific and security challenges in Europe. This changing global landscape has pushed Arab states, particularly those in the Gulf, to rethink their security frameworks and develop a more diversified approach to regional defense.

Against this backdrop, Jordan’s role becomes even more significant.

Jordan offers capabilities that complement the broader security needs of the Gulf states. It maintains a highly professional military, experienced intelligence and security services, and decades of expertise in counterterrorism and regional security operations. Its geographic position, linking the Levant with the Arabian Peninsula, also gives it strategic relevance in any future regional security architecture.

The security of the Gulf is no longer simply a military issue. It is directly connected to global economic stability, energy supplies, international commerce, and the security of vital trade routes. Any major military confrontation in the region would have consequences extending far beyond the Middle East, affecting markets and strategic interests worldwide.

For this reason, Jordan remains one of the Arab world’s most dependable security partners for the Gulf states. Its institutional stability, professional security apparatus, and consistent foreign policy make it a valuable contributor to any future regional security framework.

The partnership between Jordan and the Gulf states has the potential to expand beyond traditional security cooperation. It can play a larger role in collective defense planning, intelligence coordination, CT efforts, and long-term strategic planning at a time when the regional order is undergoing profound transformation.

The future of Gulf security will not be determined solely by defense spending, advanced weapons systems, or external alliances. It will also depend on the strength of regional partnerships built on trust, shared interests, political stability, and institutional credibility.

In this evolving environment, Jordan stands out as a rare example of strategic continuity. It has avoided the shifting alliances and short-term calculations that have often characterized regional politics. Instead, it has maintained a consistent view that the security of the Gulf is directly linked to its own national security.

Strengthening the Jordan-Gulf partnership, therefore, is not simply a diplomatic preference or a temporary alignment of interests. It is a strategic necessity driven by the realities of a rapidly changing Middle East. As regional challenges grow more complex, the value of reliable partners with institutional strength, political credibility, and long-term commitment will only increase.

Jordan’s record of stability and cooperation over decades places it at the heart of any serious effort to build a more resilient and coordinated Arab security framework for the future.