Dr. Hamza Alakaleek

In today’s hyperconnected world, the global economy runs not only on oil and trade routes, but increasingly on invisible streams of data flowing beneath the oceans. By 2026, a new term has emerged to describe this dependency: chokepoint captivity. It reflects the growing reliance of the digital economy on narrow maritime passages, particularly the Bab El Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz.

Historically, these waterways served as arteries of global commerce. Today, they have evolved into digital lifelines, carrying trillions of bytes that power financial markets, artificial intelligence platforms and sovereign cloud services. This transformation has elevated submarine cables from technical infrastructure to strategic assets.

Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have exposed a critical vulnerability. Any disruption in these narrow corridors can trigger economic shocks comparable to major energy crises. Among them, Bab El Mandeb stands out as the most sensitive node in the global digital network connecting Asia to Europe. Nearly 20 per cent of global internet traffic passes through this narrow strait, making it a digital backbone of East-West connectivity.

The scale of data flowing through the Red Sea has reached unprecedented levels, driven by the deployment of next-generation mega cables. Systems such as Africa2, spanning 45,000 kilometres with a capacity of up to 180 terabits per second, and Africa-1, delivering around 96 terabits per second, have dramatically increased bandwidth. However, this concentration of capacity in a confined maritime space creates what experts call a single point of failure. A single incident could simultaneously disrupt multiple systems.

If cables in Bab El Mandeb are severed, data must reroute along significantly longer paths, most notably around the Cape of Good Hope. This is not merely a geographical detour but a performance crisis. The additional distance, estimated between 10,000 and 15,000 kilometres, translates into latency increases of 100 to 120 milliseconds. For high-frequency trading systems, where profits are measured in microseconds, such delays effectively amount to a service outage.

While Bab El Mandeb functions as a global transit corridor, the Strait of Hormuz plays a different yet equally critical role. It is central to the digital sovereignty of Gulf countries. As Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 and the UAE’s digital transformation strategies accelerate, the region has become a hub for hyperscale data centres and cloud infrastructure.

The technical risk in Hormuz lies in its extreme spatial constraints. Submarine cables are forced to follow narrow routes within Omani territorial waters to avoid Iranian zones. This clustering increases the likelihood of accidental damage from ship anchors and fishing activities, both of which have intensified in recent years.

When maritime routes in the stair of Hormuz are disrupted, terrestrial alternatives become necessary. However, land-based networks such as JADI or regional cable systems face significant challenges. They are more expensive, offer lower capacity, and are subject to transit fees that can reach up to $300 million per cable. This can increase data transmission costs by as much as 300 per cent compared to sea routes.

Beyond physical damage, rerouting data through alternative paths introduces cybersecurity and data sovereignty risks. Data may pass through jurisdictions with differing regulatory and security standards, raising concerns about privacy and potential interception.

To mitigate these risks, regional players are shifting toward hybrid resilience strategies. Saudi Arabia is leveraging its geographic position as a bridge between three continents. Initiatives such as centre3 aim to integrate submarine cable landing stations with neutral data centres, connected high-capacity terrestrial fiber networks crossing the desert. This allows data entering from the Arabian Gulf to exit through the Red Sea, bypassing both Bab El Mandeb and Hormuz.

Low Earth orbit satellite constellations, including Starlink and Project Kuiper, have also emerged as critical backup solutions. While their capacity cannot fully replace submarine cables, they provide essential redundancy for government communications, military operations, and critical financial services during outages.

The future of the digital economy will not be defined by capacity alone, but by resilience. Submarine cables are no longer just infrastructure; they are instruments of sovereignty. Preparing for disruption is no longer optional. It is a core pillar of digital governance in a world that no longer fears distance but remains deeply vulnerable to chokepoints.