Dr. Osama Gazal

This year marks the conclusion of a drought period that persisted longer than usual, reaching its peak during the previous rainfall season when, for example, the total seasonal precipitation in Jordan did not exceed half of the long-term annual average.

Recalling the traditional notion of the "forty-day winter period" “Deep Winter” (Al-Muraba'aniyah), rooted in popular heritage and widely regarded as accurate, there is a prevailing saying: "It is inauspicious for the rainy season to be delayed at the onset of winter, or what is termed the 'deep winter'" – commonly referred to as Al-Muraba'aniyah – meaning that if the forty-day winter begins without rain, the rainy season is weak. While this generally negatively impacts crops, it does not necessarily denote an entirely dry season, but it adversely affects our understanding that plants follow a specific biological chronology governing their life cycles.

This season, along with several preceding ones before the Four-year drought period, exhibits a delay of a week or more, consistent with the characteristics of climate change. Among its most prominent indicators, now apparent to the public, not just scientists and researchers, are the delayed onset of the rainy season (Rain may happen four to twelve days after the commencement of the “Deep Winter” Al-Muraba'aniyah period, some years in dry seasons more). seasonal overlaps or shifts, and increasing climatic extremes, particularly in arid regions such as Jordan. It is noteworthy that, based on numerous studies and models extrapolating the impacts of climate change, the Mediterranean Basin is among the world’s most affected by climate change, especially given that it inherently comprises arid areas with scarce water resources.

We hope to God that the current rainy season proves favorable and exceeds the long-term annual average rainfall. It should be noted that in Jordan, which is the most water-stressed country not only in the ME but in the world, the long-term annual average rainfall (from 1937 up to last season) does not exceed 92 mm/year. This modest figure, when compared to precipitation rates in humid countries, or if we compare it with surrounding countries within the ME. Jordan is characterized by an arid climate, with only 2.5% of its area falling under the cold, rainy Mediterranean climate (with dry summers), while the remaining area is classified under four types of arid climate. Specifically, 74% of Jordan's area is classified as an arid desert climate (BWh), with the rest falling under three other arid climate classes.

Regarding dry periods – including the recently declared end of the last drought, which peaked last year. Jordan is primarily experiencing a decline in precipitation rates of up to 0.6 mm annually. Drought periods are projected to intensify every 25 years, with routine droughts lasting 2–3 years, whereas severe droughts persist for 8–11 years, based on my analysis of drought indices from 1937 to the present (the recent drought period extended for 4 years, 2021-2024).

From a simplified scientific perspective, speaking in terms of data and long-term rainfall records, we must address a detrimental phenomenon that has recently emerged and intensified: the rise of amateur weather forecasters, particularly in the Arab world.

These individuals are characterized by sensationalism, misinformation, and misinterpretation of even readily available forecasts from reputable global weather sites, which provide predictions based on scientific foundations and genuine research, not hobbyism, entertainment, or perhaps pretensions of knowledge and fame-seeking. These authentic sites offer accurate forecasts for several days and somewhat less accurate projections extending occasionally beyond a month. What amateurs do is extract information from these sites, exaggerate it, mislead, and begin their posts with phrases that deceive and misguide readers, such as: "based on numerical models, satellite imagery, European or American models..." – all of which serve to obscure the truth. Typically, none of them have studied how to interpret the models that these sites freely provide to the public.

Unfortunately, these amateurs maintain social media pages where they disseminate their weather predictions, especially during winter. However, the majority lack the scientific expertise or necessary equipment to issue accurate meteorological forecasts. It should be noted that such unverified and inaccurate predictions can lead to severe consequences, including public disruption and material or human losses. This phenomenon, which has greatly escalated due to the pursuit of low-effort, inexpensive tools for fame and social media engagement, must be curtailed. Contributing to this is the absence of regulatory oversight and the weakness of official bodies responsible for issuing authoritative weather bulletins. Therefore, stringent laws must be enacted to regulate meteorological practices and curb the phenomenon of amateur forecasting. Additionally, public awareness must be raised regarding the nature of weather predictions, the reality of climate change, and the scientific basis of forecasting – emphasizing that despite immense scientific progress, the will of God remains above all expectations. Yet, humans must contemplate and study natural phenomena through a scientific lens, not a misguided one.

As the most recent severe drought period in Middle Eastern countries (ME) draws to a close, and positive indicators of a rainfall season within or above average emerge, we hope that beneficial rains will spread throughout the Mediterranean basin region, including Jordan, which has suffered greatly from a four-year drought. However, the indications for snow and the formation of deep low-pressure systems with cold polar-origin fronts have been inadequate up to this point; so, snowfall may occur in the northern ME. While it will be limited in southern countries such as Jordan to mountain areas with an average altitude of more than 1100 meters above sea level.

The winter phenomenon experienced in the ME region in the early 1990s would have been possible this season had it not been for the rapid movement and lack of prolonged stationing of developing low-pressure systems with polar-origin fronts over the eastern Mediterranean. Nevertheless, the possibility of low-pressure systems deepening remains contingent upon the movement of pressure centers and influential high-pressure systems over Europe and surrounding areas affecting the Mediterranean region. All of this occurs by the will of God Almighty.

Despite the increased availability of weather forecasting, unlike earthquake prediction and other natural phenomena significant margin for unexpected and sudden changes beyond statistical expectations and readings persists. However, in the case of earthquakes, this margin is considerably larger. Despite advancements in theories explaining the nature of earthquakes and monitoring of tectonic movements, science has only been able to identify areas most susceptible to seismic activity. For instance, Jordan is considered seismically safe, while Turkey is seismically active (see my article about earthquakes:
https://en.ammonnews.net/article/67112 ). Yet, human capability in predicting earthquakes cannot match the level achieved in weather forecasting. We reiterate the necessity of avoiding sensationalism, ceasing reliance on amateur weather enthusiasts, and adhering solely to official meteorological sources.

We genuinely hope this year heralds the end of a drought period that has led to diminished water availability, degradation of vegetation cover, decline in agricultural production, and increased strain on water supply management. Optimism is warranted, as indicators point toward the conclusion of this difficult and prolonged drought, which, as noted, has had markedly adverse effects. May God protect this Planet, and our ME region, and our Jordan an inspiring Hashemite leadership and a people devoted to God, the nation, and their leaders. Blessed are the efforts of all who work with sincerity and patriotism for the sake of this noble country.


*Dr. Osama MN. Gazal, PhD in Hydrogeological and Environmental Applied Engineering