Eng. Mohannad Abbas Haddadin

This month, the world witnessed a regional war in the Middle East that almost brought the region to the unknown, as it began with a sudden attack by Israel on Iran coordinated by the United States in light of negotiations that were being held at the table between the United States and Iran, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu had convinced US President Trump of this strike, which will lead to the collapse of the Iranian military system, so that Iran would then go to the US round of negotiations surrendering to all demands, namely the destruction of nuclear facilities and the ballistic missile program, but things were not as Israel had planned, even without an alternative plan, as Iran woke up from that the strike began with an exhausted ballistic missile attack Israeli defenses during the 12 days, until Israel appealed to the United States as a result of the ferocity of the Iranian strikes and their increasing intensity day by day and the loss achieved, not to mention the penetration of Israeli interceptors intercepting Iranian ballistic missiles, which estimated the maximum period of time a week to run out, the mission was not achieved by Israel, the most important of which was the elimination of Iranian nuclear facilities, which necessitated the intervention of the United States.

The United States most likely held hidden consultations with the Iranians and Russians before the intervention, because the message from Iran reached the United States that if it interferes, All US interests in the Middle East Economic and military region will be jeopardized, and this means the United States will enter into a long war with Iran, and everyone will lose in that war, especially the United States, as all its military bases in the region will be targeted and two major Straits will be closed, the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, and this will pose great challenges to US President Trump, and it has become a nightmare that he cannot get out of, so what will he do under the involvement of Netanyahu for him.

There is always the military, political and media front, the military front will lose everyone, especially since Iran has a ballistic missile force, and on the political front, how Will Trump save face for the United States, especially since it pledged to defend Israel, and what about the Western media and its criticism, as the specter of the Russian-Ukrainian war still haunts the US people.

Here it was necessary to resort to a play in the language of the peoples or an undeclared agreement in the language of the countries, where the United States, apparently in coordination with Russia and Iran, carried out a strike on the three nuclear reactors one day in advance, and then Iran responds to this strike, and then that war is ended, and back to square one.

To assess the situation for Iran, it considered itself victorious because its nuclear reactors were not destroyed in such a way as to prevent it from continuing enrichment, as all the advanced IR6 reactors and centrifuges are all inside the real reactors under the mountains at depths ranging from 100 to 400 meters, what was bombed with 30 tons of GBU-57 B2 bombers on the three reactors and 30 Tomahawk missiles destroyed the old surface reactors and the United States needs weeks of successive strikes to destroy those reactors in addition, Iran managed to smuggle 400 kg of enriched uranium, the enrichment rate of which reached 60%, not to mention that it was Iran that ended the war on Israel with its latest painful blow, in addition to hitting the US base in Qatar.

As for the United States, US President Trump came out on the media as a hero of this war by stopping it with a knockout blow by destroying the three Iranian reactors, Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow, and that he restored the Iranian nuclear program back decades, without giving any party an opportunity to verify this, and stood at the same distance from Israel and Iran by expressing this war to support his secrecy and his prior agreement before Iran and Russia to stop the war.

For Israel, it did not achieve the desired from the first strike, despite relying on the advanced technology it possesses, from artificial intelligence and cyber warfare, from its agents inside Iran, and from its assassinations of military leaders and scientists, as its Air Force was lost inside the vast Iranian territory and large targets that exhausted its aircraft, it was not decisive within days, and the pressure on it increased with the dragging the United States into a long war in the region, as Netanyahu wanted from this After his failure in the Gaza war to take back the prisoners, he should completely destroy the nuclear facilities in order to remain in power for years to come and to cancel all the cases filed against him.

What is the situation now?
President Trump realized that Netanyahu had implicated him and should not implicate him again, and realized that the reason for his involvement was the trials at home that would convict Netanyahu, which prompted President Trump to try to intervene in ending Netanyahu's trials, fearing that he would implicate him in the future with any uncalculated war.

The first concern after stopping Israel's war with Iran is to stop the Gaza war in exchange for ensuring that Netanyahu is not prosecuted, after which the US economic plan in the Middle East and its first steps will begin normalization between Arab countries and Israel, regardless of the Iranian nuclear program, which is no different from the Pakistani program, the neighboring country of Iran, where Trump wants to reprogram Iran by integrating it economically in the region, and this will benefit both parties, and Trump will another axis It will be a full-time transit gateway to China in the coming days.

As for Israel, it is living in fear in terms of the horror of the Iranian nuclear program, which does not yet know what the coming days have in store for it, it knows that the United States will not sacrifice all its interests in the region for this fear.

Therefore, the next stage will witness Israeli pressure on the United States to strip Iran of any nuclear rights, whether through negotiations or military empowerment, but Iran will not miss this opportunity and will soon announce that it possesses ballistic missiles loaded with radioactive uranium from that stockpile that has been hidden, in order to deter Israel from carrying out any unilateral military operation against it.

As for the US-Iranian negotiations, Trump will try to entice Iran to gradually lift the blockade from it and release frozen funds, economic support and Western investment without regime change, and offer it, in agreement with Russia, to make new nuclear reactors for peaceful purposes, and the United States will work with Russia's help by controlling the 400 kg of enriched uranium, and all this will probably take a period of time in which Goodwill prevails on both sides, everything that Israel wants will not be at the expense of the United States, Trump's slogan : "America First", as well as: "Let's Make America Great Again".

Engineer Mohannad Abbas Haddadin, is a GM of Jobkins Center for Strategic Studies and Expert, strategic and economic analyst.
jcfss@jobkins.com