Eng. Mohannad Abbas Haddadin

A question that is being asked now in light of a war waged by Israel against Iran suddenly after a phone call between US President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu during negotiations that were being held between the United States and Iran, the United States wants to end Iran's isolation and control over oil and gas through peaceful trade deals in which US President Trump excels as a man of deals ,but reaching this agreement was not so easy in the presence of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, who prioritized the dismantling of the Iranian nuclear reactor and the destruction of Iranian ballistic missiles as a prerequisite for any agreement between the United States and Israel, as Netanyahu exploited the influence of the lobby The Zionist regime in the United States in order to put pressure on the US president during these negotiations, the Israeli Prime Minister, during that phone call with Trump, only convinced him that he would strike Iran alone with a preemptive, decisive blow to the illusion of the US president that Iran would sit at the negotiating table acquiescing to our conditions, then the parties agreed on this blow secretly, so Trump began to dream about the conditions that he would put on Iran to bring oil and gas money to the United States and get rid of the Iranian knot in the Middle East to then devote to China, and Netanyahu, who would gain political gains his political age had spared him from future trials, and it was in his mind that if If he fails in this war, the United States and the West will support him and he will personally be a winner in both cases.

5 days after this war launched by Israel against Iran, we witnessed an Israeli appeal to the United States after the Iranian steadfastness and receiving the preemptive strike and Israel's inability to achieve its strategic goals, which is the elimination of all nuclear reactors and ballistic missiles, and we will review the reasons for this Israeli appeal to the United States:

1. Israel launched a pre-emptive strike without an alternative plan and thought that it could bring down the entire Iranian military system through assassinations of senior military leaders and scientists, in addition to striking military operations rooms, command and control, nuclear reactors, ground-based anti-defenses and logistics from airports and some rocket launchers.

2. Iran absorbed the first strike and was able to respond with a missile to Israel within 24 hours of the start of the attack on it.

3. Israeli haste in the strike, as some of the leaders who put plans on paper to attack Iran were dismissed by Netanyahu, who became arrogant through his war on Gaza and Hezbollah, and he does not know that during the Gaza war 20 months ago, Israeli aircraft carried out about 10,000 sorties and the area of Gaza was 360 square kilometers, which is very close to Israeli air bases and that the average distance from Israeli military bases to Gaza is 100 km, while Iran's area is 1,648 thousand square kilometers, more than the area of Gaza by 4,578 times, and with an average of 2,500 km from Israeli air bases, it means a distance of 25 times more and also doubles the distance calculating the return of the aircraft from their place of departure in Israel, all this exhausted the Israeli Air Force by not being able to achieve its goals within the time-bound plan, which required support from the United States to provide it with 30 refueling aircraft in addition to various combat warplanes.

4. Israel has not fought a war with countries since 1973, as its wars after that date were with parties and factions, and the country that manages the military scene of those factions and parties was Iran, which benefited from those wars despite losing some of them to read Israeli military tactics and the way it deals with dilemmas and psychological warfare.

5. The arrogance of Israel by possessing advanced technology of cyber warfare, Superior Air Force and Artificial Intelligence, which does not occupy a territory, and forgot that it is fighting a country whose global rating of power is 16 means a lower grade than Israel with a rating of 15.

6. The Iranian progression in military tactics using missiles from less accurate to more accurate, which means launching fewer missiles more effectively over time, all this has caused pressure on the Israeli Interior.

7. The Daily heavy economic losses and their consequences in the future through the immobilization of daily life in Israel.

8. The psychological state that the Israeli citizen is living from the rocket strikes and staying most of their time in shelters.

9. After 5 days, Israel could not eliminate the Iranian ballistic missiles, and it also could not destroy the most important nuclear reactor, the Fordow reactor, which may contain enriched Uranium, which was transferred to this reactor with a degree of enrichment of 60% and an estimated amount of 400 kg and with advanced centrifuges of the sixth generation, which lies under the mountains with a depth of more than 90 meters, Israeli aircraft cannot destroy it, who can destroy it only American aircraft B2, which is the upgraded version of B52 using bombs weighing up to 20 tons, by carrying a bomb GBU57, which weighs 14 tons and penetrates a rocky(concrete) distance of about 60 m.

10. The Iranian decentralized missile force and launch platforms, which have been distributed and hidden inside the rugged Iranian terrain, making them difficult to detect, in addition to the lack of advanced types of them so far being used to hit Israeli targets as an element of Iranian surprise.

11. Iran is luring Israel into a long-term war, and this is what Israel cannot afford, especially since Israel is known for fighting short wars such as the Six-Day War and others.

12. Iran's seizure of classified Israeli documents before the start of the war could benefit the conduct of the battle, as well as the exposure of spies inside Iran, the capture of the F-35 pilot and confessions that could help weaken the Israeli Air Force.

Through the above narration of some of the positive reasons for the US intervention due to Israel's inability to achieve its goals, and the involvement of the United States in this war, in addition to the intervention from NATO, as US aircraft carriers began to approach the region, all this and Trump hopes that he will not interfere and become involved and his external performance will become worse than the performance of his predecessors, who implicated the United States in wars that they all lost, not forgetting that the United States has global balances with other great countries such as China, Russia and other nuclear countries such as North Korea and Pakistan, as well as military and economic interests with its allies in the region, where US President Trump began with statements Contradictory and strange ones such as:" he knows the whereabouts of the Iranian leader, but he doesn't want to target him at the moment, " as if he were telling him your life in exchange for giving up nuclear weapons, and at times threatening to evacuate the capital Tehran to force it to concede as a psychological war he is waging on Iran and also saying:"We Own the skies of Iran".

The brave US decision comes to immediately stop the war and give the political horizon to negotiations without preconditions so that the great powers, most importantly China and Russia, join them to get out of this trap that Netanyahu wants to trap the United States in particular and the world in general.

Engineer Mohannad Abbas Haddadin, is a GM of Jobkins Center for Strategic Studies and Expert, strategic and economic analyst.
jcfss@jobkins.com