Ammon News - The outcome of Tuesday's U.S. presidential election, in which over 330 million people will be represented, is expected to be determined by only a few tens of thousands of voters in some states.

This year, exit polls show that only seven out of the 50 states are considered serious contenders, as the majority are already committed to either Democratic or Republican races.

Among the seven swing states, Pennsylvania, the state with the largest population, is expected to be the deciding factor in determining the winner of the presidential race between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump.

This truth is evident in the tactics of both candidates, as they focus their paid advertising and campaign events mainly on those seven swing states.

Here is a more detailed examination of why the outcome of the presidential election relies on a small subset of American citizens.

What is the reason the election outcome is not determined by the popular vote?

The presidential race differs from federal or state elections in that it does not rely exclusively on the popular vote. The victor of each state, as well as Washington, D.C., receives the electoral college votes of that state, which are mainly determined by the population.

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In order to win the presidential election, a candidate must secure at least 270 out of the 538 electoral votes in the nation, regardless of the popular vote outcome, as demonstrated by Trump's victory in 2016.

If there is a 269-269 tie, the House of Representatives will choose the winner and each state delegation will have one vote, a situation experts believe would probably benefit ex-President Trump.

If the non-swing states vote as predicted, Vice President Harris would have 226 electoral college votes compared to Trump's 219, leaving 93 votes still up for grabs.

The swing states, can you tell me what they are?

There are seven swing states that could go to either party on Tuesday: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in the Rust Belt, and Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina in the Sun Belt.

For years, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin had been a reliable support system for Democratic candidates, known as the "blue wall." However, Trump managed to win by a small margin in all three states in 2016, aiding in his victory over Democrat Hillary Clinton.

In four years, Joe Biden won the presidency by recapturing Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania for the Democrats, and also securing surprising wins in historically Republican states Georgia and Arizona.

* How tight is this election?

It's extremely nearby. As per The New York Times’ polling tracker, all seven swing states are still evenly matched even now. Trump continues to hold a 3-point edge in Arizona, with the remaining six states showing an average margin of 1 point.

The competition appears to be more evenly matched than it was in 2020. That year, a difference of only 43,000 votes in three states, representing less than one third of a percentage point of the total vote, was sufficient to secure a second term for the Republican candidate by switching from Biden to Trump.

What makes Pennsylvania so significant?

The solution is straightforward: The state holds 19 electoral votes, surpassing all other swing states.

Pennsylvania is regarded as essential for both Harris and Trump to secure victory in the presidential race, serving as the most probable "tipping point" state to surpass the 269 electoral college votes needed.

Should Harris fail to win Pennsylvania, she will need to secure victories in either North Carolina or Georgia to have a shot at winning. Both states have chosen Democratic candidates three times in the last four decades.

On the flip side, if Trump doesn't win Pennsylvania, he must secure either Wisconsin or Michigan, both of which have only voted for a Republican candidate once since the 1980s, and that candidate was Trump eight years ago.

Both Harris and Trump have focused their campaigns on Pennsylvania more than any other state, considering it the most crucial state. According to AdImpact, the total spent on air ads in Pennsylvania surpasses Michigan by over $75 million, reaching $279.3 million through Oct. 7, making it the top state in terms of spending by campaigns and their allies.

What is the reason behind the high level of interest in a particular district in Nebraska?

48 states allocate their electoral votes winner-take-all, while Nebraska and Maine assign one electoral vote to the winner of each congressional district. In 2020, Biden claimed victory in one of Nebraska's five electoral votes, while Trump secured one of Maine's four electoral votes.

In Omaha, the 2nd Congressional District of Nebraska is a closely fought election that experts predict Harris will probably win. Both sides have invested millions of dollars in advertising in Omaha. This one vote may determine the outcome. If Harris wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and Trump wins the remaining four swing states, Nebraska's 2nd district will decide if the election ends in a tie or Harris emerges as the winner.