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The size of the COVID-19 vaccine market will reach close to $20 billion by 2026, a study from an international analytics company revealed.

Measuring vaccination programs in seven major nations GlobalData’s ‘Opportunity Assessment and Forecast to 2026’ also showed that COVID-19 vaccines based on mRNA technology are dominating these seven markets this year, with a market share of 95.4 percent and $9.5 billion in sales for Pfizer/BioNTech and $3.5 billion for Moderna.

The seven countries comprised: the US, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the UK, and Japan

The research indicated that there increase from $13.6bn in 2021 to $19.5bn in 2026 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.6 percent should annual vaccination be required.

GlobalData’s report modeled three different scenarios for the use of COVID-19 vaccines, since it is unclear how long protection from the current vaccines will last. In the first scenario, COVID-19 vaccines will be required annually; in the second scenario, annual vaccination will be assumed for the high-risk population of people 65 years of age and older, while everyone below 65 years of age will need a vaccine only every two years. In the third scenario, the high-risk population of people 65 years of age and older will receive a COVID-19 vaccine every two years, while everyone below 65 years will need a vaccine only every five years.

Philipp Rosenbaum, a senior pharma analyst at GlobalData said that in the latter two scenarios, market sales will fluctuate significantly over the forecast period to 2026, since most people in these seven countries will receive a vaccine in 2021.

“The launch of a nanoparticle vaccine from Novavax and a recombinant protein vaccine from Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline will decrease the market share of mRNA vaccines, but vaccines from Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna will remain dominant,” Rosenbaum said.

“The market share of adenovirus vector-based vaccines from AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson is suspected to decrease from 3.2 percent in 2021 to 2.1 percent in 2026 due to their lower efficacy and lack of contract renewal in Europe. Barriers of growth will be low vaccination rates due to vaccine hesitancy and skepticism, which could be enhanced if more adverse events will be observed with COVID-19 vaccines,” he asserted.

Key Opinion Leaders interviewed by GlobalData for this report agreed that it will not be possible to know how long the protection from COVID-19 vaccines will last until the data comes in, but emphasized that SARS-CoV-2 variants might make booster doses necessary, the company claimed. While some leaders assume that protection will last for several years, others think that annual vaccination with COVID-19 vaccines will be necessary, similar to immunization against seasonal influenza, the data company revealed.

*Al Arabiya