Ammon News - The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation which is concerned with global health research at the University of Washington predicts a raise in the expected deaths due to COVID-19 in Jordan which may reach 5,593 deaths by the end of the year. This means six times as much the number that has been expected by the institute in the first week of October according to the Pandemic situation at that time in Jordan.

The institute suggests three scenarios that may lead to a health disaster which could exceed the health disaster that occurred in Italy, the United States of America and other countries.

The first scenario (the worst): 7,477 deaths by the end of the year. This scenario occurs in case of little safety procedures taken with regards to people or little adherence of people to those procedures. This scenario may likely occur especially with the gatherings occurred during the election.

The second scenario (the best): 4,833 deaths by the end of the year. This scenario occurs in case of imposing strict procedures such as social distancing and wearing face masks. One has to bear in mind that the institute recommends to take this action if the deaths reached 8 people per one million of the population which has not been taken by Jordan in spite of reaching 122 deaths per one million of the population. This scenario includes a commitment of 95% of the population to wear face masks such as the procedures taken by Singapore.


The third scenario (the most probable): 5,593 deaths by the end of the year. This scenario to be occurred based on the average rate of wearing face masks and commitment of social distancing. This scenario appears severe and scary, however it looks the most probable scenario to occur.

The expectations that the climax of COVID-19 deaths in Jordan will be in the first week of December as the number of deaths is expected to reach 116 per day and it may raise to reach 147 deaths.

The reality shock that no one intends to talk about is that the expected number of infection cases may reach 67 thousand cases daily.

The official statements in Jordan indicate that there are contradictions with regards to the data about the capacity and ability of the health system.