Ammon News - AMMONNEWS - The news reports of disturbances coming from Iraq sends Jordan into a state of concern. Jordan fears a loosening of its eastern border with Iraq, and has a bitter experience regarding the border with its northern neighbor, Syria.

Inside closed rooms, Jordanian officials raise their voices, warning of the growing influence of Salafist groups inspired by al-Qaeda's approach in their territory near Iraq. This comes after the rise of such groups only a few kilometers from the border with Syria.

There is historical hostility between Amman and al-Qaeda — in particular the Iraqi branch — because the latter targeted the Jordanian capital with three simultaneous bombings in 2005. This contributed to the Jordanian security apparatus eliminating al-Qaeda leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in 2006.

Jordanian officials are holding their breath, fearing a new wave of Iraqi refugees to add to the Syrian displacement. The latter has hardly ended since the conflict broke out over three years ago, in a desert country with minimal resources that depends largely on foreign aid.

The latest dialogues that have been leaked from within Jordanian government institutions reveal a nightmare for political, security and military leaders who are monitoring the Iraqi scene closely. They are overcome with fear regarding the political, economic and social repercussions of these events on their territory. This has replaced fears about the unprecedented security challenges facing a country that is besieged from fire on all sides, especially Syria, where the conflict has been protracted and will likely escalate.

The news reports on June 16 regarding the withdrawal of Iraqi army troops from cities and town adjacent to Jordan have cast heavy shadows on the political decision-making rooms in the Jordanian capital.

Reports by the Jordan News Agency (Petra), quoting Iraqi security sources, said that Iraqi regime forces had withdrawn from western areas in Anbar province adjacent to Jordan and Syria. The withdrawals included the cities of Rawa, Aneh, al-Qaim and Kabisa.

There is a huge border crossing between Jordan and Iraq — Trebil — which lies 370 kilometers [230 miles] from Amman and 570 kilometers [354 miles] from Baghdad, near Anbar province.

Official aides say that Jordanian decision-making rooms are "monitoring the heated events near the border with Iraq with deep concern." It was hoped that the agreement signed last year with the government of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki — which involved installing an oil pipeline through the kingdom for export — would improve the economic situation in Jordan, after the war in Syria closed all commercial crossings with its northern neighbor.

One of those aides said, "The balanced being tipped in the favor of groups close to al-Qaeda in Sunni areas of Iraq close to Jordan, leads the latter to expect unpleasant surprises." The aide added, "The fear is not of Sunni tribes in Iraq, but rather of terrorist groups that don't want the best for Jordan."

The Jordanian ruling establishment has close social and security ties with influential Sunni tribal figures in western Iraq.

Many of these figures had been granted open-ended residency permits to stay in Jordan. They include Adnan al-Dulaimi, a leader of the Sunni Endowment in Iraq, in addition to well-known Sunni leader Harith al-Dhari.

Another Jordanian aide said, "The catastrophic scenario involves the formation of an ISIS state stretching from Iraq to Syria."

The Policy Council — which is headed by Jordanian King Abdullah II and includes top politicians and security and military officials — alluded to this scenario in an unannounced manner.

This council said that the collapse of the situation in Iraq and Syria would lead to a state adjacent to Jordan headed by extremist groups.

Unpublished analyses by the Jordanian security institution indicate that "this hypothetical state would extend between Syria and Iraq, and would be surrounded by an Alawite entity in the northern region of Syria, as well as a Shiite belt in the northeastern region of Iraq. This would mean its only outlet for maneuver would be Jordan, and herein lies the danger."

A Western diplomat in Amman stated, "[Redrawing] the map of Iraq, as it is wracked by sectarian tensions, would lead to a redrawing of the borders of [other] countries in the Middle East." He added, "Jordan has legitimate fears of the possibility that the influence of jihadists in Iraq and Syria would lead to the establishment of an [extremist-led] state near its borders with those two countries, which are difficult to control in normal circumstances."

The spokesman for the Jordanian government, Minister Mohammed Momani, told Al-Hayat, "All Jordanian institutions have taken the necessary precautionary measures to deal with any threat on the borders, whether with Syria or Iraq."

Since the start of the recent turmoil in Iraq, Jordan has remained silent about what is happening there, with the exception of some scare statements issued by ministers. However, in most cases, the ministers do not include their true names. One of these officials said: "We do not want to comment on the ongoing turmoil … We do not want to appear as though [we are involved] in the heart of the event."

He added, "Our lack of comments does not mean we are not interested. There are political, military and security meetings being held at the highest levels. Our task now is to deal with surprises, and there are plans that have already been completed."

As the conflict escalates on the border with Iraq, the situation does not seem better off on the border with Syria. Over the past two months, heavy fighting has erupted between the Jordanian army and armed groups near the border with Syria. During these battles, Amman used helicopters and ground forces for the first time.

These battles have pushed Jordan to be more involved in the Syrian war.

On June 16, the General Command of the Jordanian Army announced that border guards arrested 22 people trying to sneak into Jordan from Syria, including one Jordanian and 21 non-Jordanian Arabs. The General Command mentioned that some of the attempted infiltrators had sustained injuries.

In this context, a senior government official told Al-Hayat, "The leadership of the army and security services have begun to implement a Jordanian-American security plan near the border with Syria. The plan involves the redeployment of forces along the border with Syria, which extends 350 kilometers [270 miles], and strengthening various logistical reinforcements. It puts strict limits on vacation for soldiers and senior officers, especially those within military units near the heated areas."

Last month, Jordanian Prime Minister Abdullah Ensour said: "Jordan does not expect armies to advance toward the border, rather it fears and is bracing for the advance of terrorists." He stressed that Jordan was "under threat from the Syrian crisis."

Samih Maaytah, a former minister and current spokesman for the Jordanian government, said, "The Iraqi file has for a long time represented a major challenge for Jordan. But this challenge began to transform into a constant danger during the past few days. As a result, the kingdom must bear a new security and military burden, in addition to dealing with the Syrian file."

Maaytah added that “[Areas] hundreds of kilometers from the border separating Jordan from Iraq are under the threat of terrorists and arms dealers, and this is the case for the border with Syria.” He continued, “We are living a critical moment that requires us to double the number of military and security forces at the border with Iraq, i.e., taking the same procedures and precautions implemented on the border with Syria. This entails large financial costs that Jordan cannot afford alone.” Maaytah said, “Covering the entire border requires urgent international and regional support. … Our border with Iraq is also a common border with the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia, in particular, and therefore we need an unlimited support.”

The political researcher and commentator Fahd al-Khayat said, “Jordan is dealing realistically with the political situation in Iraq, opened up to the Maliki government despite the warnings, did not cut its ties with the Sunni Iraqis and also did not spare any intelligence cooperation with all parties with respect to the risk of militants in order to protect its national security. Jordan did the same thing with the parties to the Syrian equation as well.” He added, “The kingdom's approach toward the events in Iraq must not exceed the Jordanian borders.” Khayat said, “All we can do today is strengthen Amman’s military and security capabilities in anticipation of surprises coming from the east, and cut off any attempt by extremists to open freely the tripartite borders with Iraq and Syria.”

Maj. Gen. Fayez Douiri, a military expert retired from the Jordanian army, believes Jordan has finally changed the rules of engagement along the unrestrained border with Syria, and perhaps the case may be the same for Iraq, where the for first time fighter jets were used to prevent infiltration and smuggling. He recalled that the Jordanian army last week destroyed carts coming from Syria that tried to cross the Jordanian borders, and was using helicopters in a clear message to anyone who intended to enter the country and breach its security.

Moreover, Jordan also fears the worsening situation in Iraq will waves of asylum-seekers heading toward its territory, which will lead it to bear an additional burden, while it is already harboring more than 1.3 million Syrians who fled the conflict in their country that has been ongoing for more than three years now. It is worth mentioning that over the past decades the Hashemite Kingdom has accommodated huge numbers of Iraqi refugees, before and after the US invasion.

Ali Bibi, a spokesman for the UN refugee agency, UNHCR, said, “The UNHCR is working closely near the Jordanian border with Iraq, and monitoring developments firsthand, through consultation and coordination with the Jordanian government.” Bibi said, “We took all measures to deal with any possible Iraqi displacement movement, but the decision for hosting displaced Iraqis is to be taken by the government of Jordan, according to the developments.”

These developments led Jordanian parliamentarians to ask the government to close the borders with Iraq and Syria. According to MP Bassam Manasir, Jordan's obligations toward the UN remain linked to the condition of not affecting national security. He said, “The arrival of 1.3 million Syrians into Jordan and the predicted wave of Iraqi displacement pose the biggest threat to the security of the country.”


*Al-Monitor