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Secretary of State Bets on Change in Mideast, and His Own Stature

By Jay Solomon/ The Wall Street Journal

AMMAN, Jordan—Secretary of State John Kerry, in attempting to end two volatile Mideast conflicts, is betting that recent shifts in the region’s balance of power—and his own stature—will spur the painful compromises required, say U.S. and Arab officials involved in the diplomacy.

The diplomat’s aggressive and highly personalized campaigns to forge both an Arab-Israeli peace agreement and end Syria’s civil war, however, are fraught with challenges for the region, said these officials and Mideast analysts.

Any breakdown in negotiations between the Israelis and Palestinians—which are expected to begin within weeks—would risk reigniting Palestinian militancy and opening the door for Iran and Syria to more directly engage in the Arab-Israeli conflict. Tehran and its Palestinian and Lebanese allies, Hamas and Hezbollah, already have voiced opposition to the resumption of the peace process, which was announced on Friday.

Syrian opposition leaders, meanwhile, worry Mr. Kerry’s continuing efforts to stage a regional peace conference on Syria, in coordination with Russia, have been buying time for President Bashar al-Assad to push ahead with an increasingly successful campaign to reclaim lands lost to rebel militias.

Mr. Kerry, breaking from his predecessor, Hillary Clinton, has jumped into the Arab-Israeli conflict in a bid to forge a peace pact that he says would help stabilize not just the Middle East, but the broader Islamic world. High-level peace talks between the two sides halted three years ago.

Ms. Clinton delegated the Mideast peace file to special envoys during her four-year term and rarely got involved in day-to-day issues, U.S. officials said.

Mr. Kerry, conversely, has made six trips to the region since he took over in February, and held a string of marathon one-on-one meetings with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.

Last week, Mr. Kerry shuttled by helicopter between Jordan and the West Bank to encourage and cajole Mr. Abbas and other Arab leaders to back the peace process—while concurrently holding phone conversations with Mr. Netanyahu.

Mr. Kerry’s intense focus on the peace process—and one-on-one role in other hotspots—has drawn critical attention from some officials in the White House and State Department, who said the former senator hasn’t shared his strategy and the results of many of his high-level meetings.

Mr. Kerry and his staff deny he has freelanced or avoided close coordination with the White House. Mr. Kerry also has argued that the diplomacy needs to be kept secret.

“As this important…process continues to unfold, we want to make sure that we keep it quiet, because that’s honestly the only way that it works,” Mr. Kerry said in Amman last week. “And everybody has agreed on that.”

Arab leaders have lauded Mr. Kerry’s direct involvement in the peace process. They have said that Mr. Kerry’s stature as a former presidential candidate, and the relationships he built in the Mideast while a senator, are aiding his diplomacy. “His experience talks for itself, especially when it comes to the sensitive files in our region with his long history,” said Nasser Judeh, Jordan’s foreign minister, last week.

Mr. Kerry has also held a string of meetings since March with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov—a close ally of Syria’s—to try and set the terms for the Syrian peace conference. It is envisioned to bring together members of Mr. Assad’s regime, opposition leaders and officials from Syria’s neighboring countries.

In recent weeks, however, Mr. Assad’s forces, backed by arms and funding from Iran, Hezbollah and Russia, have notched important battlefield wins in central Syria. The Obama administration has yet to fulfill its pledge to send light weapons and ammunition to the Damascus regime’s opponents.

“The Russians planned things from day-to-day” to strengthen Assad ahead of any peace conference, said Najib Ghadbian, U.S. representative for the Syrian Opposition Coalition, the main political-opposition group. “The Americans only now seem to be aware of it.”

In one view, the unrest sweeping the Middle East could end up helping Mr. Kerry’s initiative, U.S. and Arab officials said in recent days.

In just the past month, three governments that have enthusiastically supported the Hamas political movement—Egypt, Qatar and Turkey—have undergone political turbulence either in the form of leadership changes or mass political unrest.

These developments are expected to weaken Hamas diplomatically and financially, according to these officials and Mideast analysts, and give Mr. Abbas more political space to negotiate with Mr. Netanyahu.

Growing European pressure on Mr. Netanyahu also might aid the peace process, current and former U.S. officials said. Last week, the European Union said it would ban investments in Israeli institutions that operate on lands claimed by Israel after the 1967 Arab-Israeli war. Israeli officials worry the EU decision could be part of a wider divestment and delegitimization campaign targeting Israel, which could grow to include more U.S. companies and universities.

“It has been a sobering factor for Netanyahu,” former U.S. President Jimmy Carter, who brokered the 1978 Camp David Accords between Israel and Egypt, said in an interview this week. “I think this might be encouraging [the Israelis].”

Mr. Kerry, meanwhile, is continuing to pursue the Syrian peace conference in league with Moscow, State Department officials said. U.S. officials said he has relied on relationships he developed during his more than 20 years on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, in this instance with Mr. Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister.

The regional turmoil could also help the U.S. better unify the Syrian opposition’s political and military leaders, according to U.S. and Arab officials. Turkey and Qatar have been supporting some of the more radical militias inside Syria, a dynamic Obama administration officials said they hope will subside due to the recent political events in Istanbul and Doha.

Still, Syrian opposition members are growing increasingly frustrated with U.S. policy. Mr. Kerry faced criticism last week when he visited the largest Syrian refugee camp inside Jordan, which is now home to more than 115,000 displaced people.

A group of refugees questioned how the U.S. could be standing on the sidelines militarily, while Moscow, Tehran and Hezbollah have so aggressively supported Mr. Assad’s regime.

With Syria’s security forces again on the offensive, rebel leaders worry that time is running out for Mr. Kerry and the U.S. to act. “There is no single bullet that’s gone in yet from the U.S.,” said Yahya Bittar, a defected Syrian general who now leads intelligence operations for the opposition Free Syrian Army.

Mr. Kerry and other U.S. officials acknowledge that American-procured weapons haven’t yet been sent to Syrian rebels. But they dispute charges of American inaction, citing the nearly $1 billion in humanitarian aid sent to the victims of the Syrian civil war over the past two years.