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Ammon News - By: Hamada Faraenah Translated from Al-Ayyam (P.A.)/ Al Monitor

Jordan is not safe from having major demonstrations by partisan and bodies that oppose the government’s economic and social policies. Jordan has the factors that caused the Arab Spring wave, which started in Tunisia before moving to Egypt, Libya and Syria. The Arab Spring may keep moving to other countries, both monarchies and republics, because the same conditions exist in those countries. The people reject regimes built around a single person, family, party or ethnicity. The factors that lead to the Arab Spring are:

1. The lack of independence and sovereignty standards. The placing of foreign interests above national interests. Foreign armies and unfair foreign agreements control the Arab order. Arab countries have a high debt burden. Some regimes receive military protection from the West. All that is helping maintain the occupation of Palestine, Syria, Iraq and southern Lebanon. There are foreign military bases in the Arabian Gulf. Binding agreements have been imposed on Jordan, Egypt, Yemen, Djibouti and others.

2. The lack of democracy, pluralism and peaceful transfer of power through the ballot box.

3. The lack of social justice and the poor state of health services, housing and transportation. The unfair distribution of wealth. The high poverty rates and the widening gap between rich and poor, which causes conflict.

The above conditions do apply to Jordan. But the country has so far not experienced a popular revolution like other Arab countries. Rather, Jordan achieved positive, reasonable and balanced results for many reasons:

1. The Jordanian opposition is weak and fragmented. It took contradictory positions, such as its position on the National Dialogue Committee or on whether to participate in the parliamentary elections. The opposition is composed of the Muslim Brotherhood as well as nationalist and leftist parties. There are also the youth who mistakenly think that they are a substitute for the two traditional camps. As a result, Jordanian demonstrators have been divided and did not attract the general population. Therefore, the impact of Jordanian demonstrators was limited.

2. Most Jordanians fear the devastating effects of the Arab Spring, as happened in Libya, Syria and Iraq. Jordanians want reform and change, but most of them don’t want to see violence, like what happened in Maan for example. Jordanians are reluctant to join the protest movement, even though they do wish to see reform and gradual democratic change.

3. That the Arab Spring allowed the Muslim Brotherhood to reach power in the Gaza Strip, Egypt and Tunisia has made the Jordanians wary of making moves that would replicate the same result in their country.

4. The Jordanian leadership has been responsive to change. It did not clash with the protesters but tried to accommodate them. The king accurately read the changes sweeping the Arab world. He spoke about a constitutional monarchy, parliament and political parties — terms that used to be forbidden. He amended the constitution. As much as one-third of the constitution was changed. He issued a new electoral law. The new law allows for national electoral lists, created an independent supervisory body and redresses electoral transgressions through the courts.

Despite that, the king said that more changes will be made and that there will be further constitutional amendments. He described the election law as “not ideal.” Improving the electoral law is on the current parliament’s agenda.

Jordan is still at the heart of the change process. It has averted violence so far. Most Jordanians — including the king, the nationalists and the leftists — believe in gradual change toward a constitutional monarchy having an elected parliament, despite the forces pushing in the opposite direction. Those regressive forces include the conservatives, which are backward and reactionary, and the Muslim Brotherhood, which does not believe in religious, ethnic, ideological or partisan pluralism.