ammonnews.net

By: Tamer al-Samadi Translated from Al-Hayat by Joelle El-Khoury/ Al Monitor

AMMONNEWS - The most recent debate in Jordan’s governing institutions reveals growing concerns over the escalating violence in its eastern neighbor, Iraq. This violence is taking place between government forces and Sunni protesters who have taken to the streets and squares since December 2012, to protest against what they referred to as [Sunni] marginalization since former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein was overthrown in 2003 and the Shiite majority came to power.

Jordan fears that the heated situation in Iraq could have political, economic and social implications, and pose serious security challenges to the Hashemite Kingdom, which is surrounded by the flames of a grinding war in its northern neighbor, Syria, while the flames of a sectarian war loom on its eastern border.

Jordanian Interior Minister Gen. Hussein al-Majali said yesterday [May 1] that the Iraqi authorities “closed the Trebil border linking the two countries, for internal reasons, in Iraq.” However, he did not elaborate.

Trebil is the only crossing between the two countries. It is located nearly 370 km [230 miles] from Amman and 570 km from Baghdad, close to the predominantly Sunni province of Anbar in western Iraq. Recently [April 27], Anbar province witnessed a security incident, as unknown gunmen killed five soldiers while they were passing by a sit-in in Ramadi.

Official aides in Jordan told Al-Hayat that the decision-making circle “is observing with dissatisfaction the bloody events in Iraq.” This is since it was hoping that the openness to the Maliki government — with which an economic agreement to extend an oil pipeline through Jordan for export purposes was concluded months ago — would enhance its economic situation, after the war in its northern neighbor caused all commercial crossings between the countries to close.

Jordan also fears that the worsening situation in its eastern neighbor would result in waves of Iraqi refugees flooding its territory. This would further burden Jordan, as it lacks resources and depends on foreign aid.

Over the past decades, the kingdom has taken in huge waves of Palestinian refugees, and has hosted large numbers of those fleeing from Lebanon — as a result of the 1975-1990 Lebanese civil war — and from Iraq — prior to and following the US invasion. Jordan also accommodates close to one million Syrian refugees at present.

According to a Jordanian minister who spoke on condition of anonymity, Jordan’s “legitimate” fear derives from [the possibility] that its huge border with Iraq could turn into to a new security threat.

Amman believes that the deterioration of the situation in Syria may lead to the establishment of a state, led-by al-Qaeda and radical Islamist groups, adjacent to the kingdom’s border. According to the Jordanian security institution’s interpretation, the “supposed” state would reach the Iraqi territory; however, it will be surrounded by an Alawite entity in northern Syria, and a Shiite belt at Iraq’s north-eastern front. This places it in front of a single crossing to maneuver, that is, via Jordan.

Some believe that the growing sectarianism in Iraq will confront the Hashemite Kingdom with conflicting considerations. Jordan is keen to maintain stable ties with the Maliki government in order to promote its economic interests, but it will not be able to support this government if Iraq’s Sunnis engage in an open confrontation with it. This is in addition to a similar confrontation between Maliki’s government and the Gulf countries — of which Jordan is considered a strong ally — that seek to destroy the “Shiite camp” in the region.

Jordan’s political and security institutions in Amman have deep social and security links with influential Sunni tribal figures in western Iraq. Many of these figures are given documents that allow them to openly reside on Jordanian territory, according to Adnan al-Dulaimi, a leader of the Sunni Waqf in Iraq who currently resides in Amman’s western suburb.

Maher Abu Tair, a prominent former adviser to the government, told Al-Hayat that the Iraqi government “attempted to attract its Jordanian counterpart by granting it an oil pipeline, so that it does not support the insurgence in western Iraq.” He continued: “Maliki wanted to cut the road to any Jordanian interference designed to support the supposed revolution in his country. Yet, the Jordanian position is very critical, and Jordan has
many calculations that may not be crystallized for the moment.”

The Iraqi ambassador in Amman, Jawad Abbas, told a Jordanian newspaper yesterday that “there is an exaggeration in estimating what is taking place in Iraq,” and asserted that “many Iraqi areas, such as Hawija, have calmed down, and many tribes reject violence.”