Dr. Hamad Kasasbeh

The key recent development in Jordan’s economy is not simply that real growth reached around 3% in the second quarter of 2026. More important is that this improvement has come as several forces begin to align: stronger productive sectors, expanding exports, major projects moving into implementation, and continued stability despite a difficult regional environment. These signals do not yet prove that Jordan has entered a high-growth cycle, but they raise a serious question: could the second half of this decade mark a shift from preserving stability to using it as a platform for higher, more productive growth?

For years, maintaining stability amid repeated shocks has been essential for Jordan. Yet stability cannot be the final objective. It protects the economy from deterioration, but it does not by itself raise per-capita income or create enough jobs unless converted into investment, productivity and exports. The next phase is therefore different: the challenge is to turn stability into a base for expanding productive capacity, improving competitiveness and increasing the private sector’s role in growth.

What gives this opportunity substance is the emerging project and investment cycle. The second Executive Programme of the Economic Modernisation Vision includes 182 initiatives and 392 projects across 25 sectors, alongside major investments and private-sector partnerships. Their value will not be measured by their number or spending alone, but by whether they lower the cost of water, energy and transport, improve infrastructure and logistics, and make new private investments viable.

This is where a potential turning point lies. Sustainable growth does not come from one public project followed by another; it emerges when the first investment generates others around it. A more efficient transport link, a major water project, or better energy infrastructure can lower costs and attract industrial and service investment. When private capital responds, the economy can move from a spending cycle to an investment cycle, and from a temporary rise in demand to a lasting increase in productive capacity.

Jordan also needs to change the quality of what it produces, not only the volume. The larger opportunity lies in increasing the share of higher-value activities: pharmaceuticals and advanced food industries, mining and related manufacturing, technology and artificial intelligence, digital services, specialised tourism, healthcare and logistics. For an economy with limited natural resources and a small domestic market, exporting value, knowledge and services is increasingly more important than simply producing larger quantities.

Human capital therefore becomes part of the growth equation rather than a separate social issue. The value of a young and educated population is not determined by the number of graduates, but by their ability to work in sectors that expand, export and use technology. If Jordan can narrow the gap between education and the skills required by new investment, its demographic challenge can become a productive advantage, while job creation becomes a result of an expanding economy.

For this reason, the indicators worth watching through the end of the decade go beyond the headline growth rate. The key questions are whether private investment is rising, exports carry more domestic value added, labour productivity is improving, firms are expanding in tradable sectors, and new jobs are translating into higher incomes. If these indicators move together, they will provide stronger evidence than GDP growth alone that the economy is changing its structure and sources of growth.

This transition will not take place without constraints. Public debt, financing costs, unemployment, limited water and energy resources, and regional risks will continue to matter. But economies do not wait for every constraint to disappear before they grow; they need their capacity to generate investment and productivity to become stronger than those constraints. Execution will therefore be decisive: the speed and quality of project delivery, removing obstacles facing investors, and linking public spending to measurable outcomes in production, exports, incomes and jobs.

The most useful question today may therefore be not whether Jordan has already entered a new growth phase, but whether it has begun to build the conditions for one. A new cycle will not be announced by a single quarterly figure. It will become visible when stability turns into investment, investment into productivity, and productivity into exports, incomes and jobs. If that sequence takes hold, the second half of this decade could mark an important transition: from an economy known for resilience to one increasingly capable of generating its own productive and sustainable growth.