Ammon News - By Abdulhamid Hamid Al-Kba- Tajikistan is currently facing a decisive test of its development ambitions. In a recent meeting in the Sughd region, President Emomali Rahmon sent a clear and firm message: exporting raw minerals is no longer acceptable. Every ton of mineral resources must now be processed domestically and turned into finished products. This represents a serious effort to break free from the traditional resource-dependent economic model. What stands out is the government’s determination to push this strategy forward despite major structural challenges.

The Ministry of Energy and Water Resources stated that the President has instructed regional and local authorities to urgently improve the industrial investment climate, develop infrastructure, allocate land for new projects, and support private export-oriented initiatives.

Rahmon stressed that developing the mining sector is a national priority and that raw minerals must be processed locally before export. He also called on entrepreneurs and investors to expand manufacturing capacity and produce competitive industrial goods. As a result, attracting private investment has become a cornerstone of the country’s industrial policy, particularly in mining, construction materials, energy, chemicals, and food processing.

The core strategic shift lies in moving gradually from exporting raw minerals to producing high value-added industrial goods. To support this transition, the President has ordered the preparation of a national program for the ferrous metals industry until 2035, aiming to establish a complete industrial value chain.

According to Minister of Industry Sherali Kabir, industrial output reached 33.8 billion somoni in the first half of 2026, marking a 14.1% increase from the previous year. Tajikistan now ranks among the fastest-growing industrial economies in the Commonwealth of Independent States, with the Sughd region contributing 60.8% of total industrial production. During this period, 191 new industrial enterprises were established, creating 1,160 jobs and attracting approximately 4.9 billion somoni in investments.

This progress is also evident in foreign trade. Total trade with 127 countries reached $6.8 billion in the first half of 2026, up 43.8% year-on-year. Exports rose to $1.6 billion (+65.3%), with industrial products making up 97.4% of the total. Key destinations included Switzerland, China, Türkiye, Uzbekistan, and Belgium. Precious metals and gemstones generated $517 million, while ores and concentrates contributed $451.7 million.

None of these ambitions can be achieved without modern infrastructure. Tajikistan is currently implementing 11 major road and transport projects worth over $1.193 billion. Meanwhile, construction of the Tajik Metallurgical Complex continues, with plans to include seven industrial enterprises by 2029.

The President has explicitly linked this project to enhancing national industrial self-reliance. He argues that greater self-sufficiency in the metals sector will allow Tajikistan to carry out large-scale national projects with fewer external constraints, whether from sanctions or global crises. A full production cycle would strengthen the country’s ability to build industrial cities, strategic transport networks, power plants, and other vital infrastructure.

This approach is important as it seeks to boost domestic value addition, generate sustainable employment, reduce import dependence, and enhance exports. It also opens doors for international cooperation, especially with China.

However, significant challenges remain: limited local financing, a shortage of skilled technical workers, difficulties in attracting Western investment amid a complex geopolitical environment, and occasional electricity shortages that could hinder heavy industry. Over-reliance on Chinese investment carries both opportunities and risks. Ultimately, success will hinge on sustained political commitment and transparent implementation.

Today, Tajikistan is trying to write a new chapter in its economic history. The recent indicators — 14.1% industrial growth, $1.6 billion in exports, and $6.8 billion in total trade — offer reasons for cautious optimism.

If the country successfully implements its ferrous metals program through 2035 and builds genuine domestic industrial capacity, it could achieve meaningful economic diversification and emerge as a notable industrial player in Central Asia.

The opportunity is there, and the political will appears strong. In the end, however, implementation will be the decisive factor.


*Abdulhamid Hamid Al-Kba -Opinion Writer Specializing in Central Asia and Azerbaijan Affairs