Yusuf Mansur

Green hydrogen is no longer merely an ambitious environmental concept; it has become one of the defining pillars of the emerging global economy. While countries competed throughout the twentieth century for oil and natural gas resources, they are now competing for abundant sunshine, strong wind resources, desalinated water, strategic ports, and integrated industrial value chains. For Jordan, the key question is no longer whether green hydrogen matters, but whether it can be transformed into a genuine industry capable of expanding GDP, creating high-quality jobs, and opening new export markets.

Globally, the clean hydrogen industry is still in its infancy. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), production of low-emission hydrogen continued to expand in 2024, yet it still accounts for less than one percent of global hydrogen production. The overwhelming majority of hydrogen continues to be produced from natural gas and coal. Nevertheless, the long-term direction is unmistakable. Decarbonizing heavy industry, fertilizer production, maritime transport, aviation, steel manufacturing, and chemicals will require steadily increasing volumes of hydrogen and its derivatives.

At the same time, the IEA has recently revised downward its 2030 projections for low-emission hydrogen production, citing rising project costs and implementation delays. The implication is clear: the market is highly promising, but its development is by no means guaranteed.

Forecasts for future demand vary considerably. Depending on the pace of industrial decarbonization and climate policies, global hydrogen demand by 2050 is expected to range between 150 and 500 million tonnes annually. By 2030, however, commercially committed demand remains relatively modest. The Hydrogen Council estimates that approximately eight million tonnes per year of clean hydrogen demand could materialize across Europe, the United States, Japan, and South Korea, provided existing policy commitments are fully implemented and supported by long-term offtake agreements.

Competition within the region is intensifying.

Saudi Arabia has entered the race through the NEOM Green Hydrogen Project, a $8.4 billion industrial investment designed to produce green hydrogen and convert it into green ammonia for export.

Oman has positioned itself as another global contender, with plans that could require approximately US$33 billion in investment to reach one million tonnes of renewable hydrogen production annually by 2030.

Egypt is leveraging its strategic location around the Suez Canal and its broad industrial base to become a regional hydrogen hub. It is targeting investments that could reach US$60 billion by 2040, with official estimates suggesting that the sector could contribute US$18 billion to GDP while creating more than 100,000 jobs.

Morocco, meanwhile, enjoys a unique geographical advantage through its proximity to European markets and its exceptional solar and wind resources. It has introduced what is known as the "Morocco Offer"—a comprehensive investment platform combining land allocation, infrastructure, financial incentives, and a clear regulatory framework to attract integrated green hydrogen projects spanning renewable power generation, electrolysis, green ammonia, synthetic fuels, and downstream industrial activities.

Where, then, does Jordan fit within this increasingly competitive landscape?Jordan's comparative advantage does not lie in scale, but in specialization. The country enjoys world-class solar irradiation, growing expertise in renewable energy, the strategic Port of Aqaba, and a well-established phosphate and fertilizer industry. Together, these assets create a strong foundation for developing a competitive green ammonia industry and producing low-carbon fertilizers for international markets.

Jordan's National Green Hydrogen Strategy suggests that production costs could eventually decline to approximately US$1.8–2.2 per kilogram, assuming access to low-cost renewable electricity, adequate infrastructure, and desalinated water supplies.

Importantly, Jordan has already begun moving beyond memoranda of understanding toward concrete investments.In 2026, the Kingdom announced a US$1.6 billion project in Aqaba to produce green hydrogen and green ammonia. This was followed by another investment agreement exceeding US$1 billion to establish a facility capable of producing 100,000 tonnes of green ammonia annually, powered by solar energy and desalinated seawater.

Yet several challenges remain.Water availability is perhaps the most critical. Producing one kilogram of green hydrogen requires approximately 13 kilograms of high-purity water, making large-scale desalination in Aqaba not simply desirable but essential.

Financing represents a second challenge. Green hydrogen projects require substantial upfront capital investment as well as long-term purchase agreements capable of ensuring commercial viability.

Third, exporting hydrogen in its raw form is generally less economically attractive than converting it into higher-value products such as green ammonia, low-carbon fertilizers, or synthetic fuels, where significantly greater value added can be captured domestically.

From an economic perspective, Jordan should pursue a realistic strategy based not on competing with Saudi Arabia or Oman in production volume, but on establishing a highly specialized industrial ecosystem. Should the Kingdom succeed in attracting cumulative investments ranging between US$5 and US$10 billion over the next two decades, the sector could ultimately contribute between 2 and 4 percent of GDP, while creating 20,000 to 40,000 direct and indirect jobs across energy, engineering, construction, chemicals, logistics, and related services.

These estimates should not be interpreted as guaranteed outcomes. Rather, they represent a realistic development scenario contingent upon export contracts, desalinated water, competitively priced renewable electricity, and strong industrial integration with Jordan's phosphate, fertilizer, and port sectors.

Perhaps what Jordan needs most today is what might be called a "Jordan Offer" for green hydrogen, a comprehensive investment proposition rather than a collection of isolated projects. International investors are not searching merely for abundant sunshine. They seek dedicated industrial land, reliable desalinated water supplies, competitively priced renewable electricity, modern port infrastructure, transparent pricing mechanisms, efficient licensing procedures, regulatory certainty, and commercially viable markets for hydrogen derivatives such as green ammonia and low-carbon fertilizers.

In this sense, Jordan's success in the green hydrogen race will depend less on the resources it possesses than on its ability to package those resources into a compelling investment proposition. Just as Morocco has successfully launched the "Morocco Offer" to attract global investors, Jordan can develop its own "Jordan Offer" by capitalizing on its unique strengths: the Port of Aqaba, abundant solar resources, an internationally competitive phosphate and fertilizer industry, institutional stability, and strategic proximity to both European and regional markets.

Ultimately, green hydrogen is neither a magic solution nor simply another energy project. It is a comprehensive industrial policy capable of reshaping entire economic sectors. Jordan's success should therefore be measured not by the number of memoranda of understanding it signs, but by the number of factories it builds, the jobs it creates, and the export shipments leaving the Port of Aqaba.

With sound planning and effective execution, Jordan may never become the world's largest producer of green hydrogen. However, Jordan can certainly become one of the smartest and most competitive players.

The writer is a Former Jordanian Minister of State for Economic Affairs.