Raad Mahmoud Al-Tal

Whenever tensions flare in the Middle East, global attention immediately shifts to oil and gas markets. Energy prices have long been viewed as the primary barometer of geopolitical instability in the region. Yet recent conflicts and the accompanying threats to maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz have highlighted another strategic vulnerability that receives far less attention but may prove equally consequential: the global fertilizer market.

While oil remains the lifeblood of industrial economies, fertilizers have become indispensable to modern food production. Today, roughly 30 percent of global fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf countries account for nearly 40 percent of global urea exports. Any disruption to production facilities, export terminals, or shipping routes therefore has implications that extend well beyond regional markets, affecting agricultural production and food security across the world.

The importance of fertilizers stems from their role as a critical input in agricultural production. Unlike many commodities, fertilizers cannot easily be substituted or deferred. Farmers must apply them at specific stages of crop development to maintain yields and productivity. Delays in supply or significant increases in prices can directly reduce agricultural output, creating ripple effects throughout the food supply chain.

This vulnerability has been demonstrated before. During the Russia–Ukraine conflict, fertilizer prices surged dramatically, with some products more than doubling in cost. Faced with soaring expenses, many farmers particularly in developing economies reduced fertilizer application rates. The consequences became evident months later through lower crop yields and tighter food supplies, contributing to rising food prices in global markets.

What makes the current situation particularly concerning is the absence of strategic fertilizer reserves comparable to those maintained for oil. Major economies have developed mechanisms to cushion short-term energy shocks, but no similar system exists for fertilizers. As a result, disruptions in fertilizer-producing regions can quickly translate into real shortages rather than merely temporary price volatility.

The economic implications extend far beyond agriculture. Fertilizers account for a substantial share of production costs for many key crops, often ranging between 30 and 50 percent. When fertilizer prices rise, farmers face higher operating costs that ultimately feed into consumer food prices. At a time when many economies are still grappling with the inflationary legacy of the pandemic and recent geopolitical conflicts, another surge in food prices could complicate efforts to stabilize inflation and reduce interest rates.

Developing countries are likely to bear the heaviest burden. Many rely heavily on imported food and agricultural inputs, making them particularly vulnerable to disruptions in global fertilizer markets. Rising food prices can erode household purchasing power, increase poverty levels, and place additional strain on government budgets as policymakers seek to protect vulnerable populations through subsidies and social assistance programs.

Unlike energy crises, however, the effects of fertilizer disruptions emerge gradually. The consequences are often delayed by months or even entire growing seasons. Farmers may initially absorb higher costs or reduce application rates, but the true impact becomes visible later through lower harvests and reduced food availability. This delayed effect creates a dangerous illusion that risks are contained when, in reality, they may be accumulating beneath the surface.

For this reason, fertilizer markets deserve greater attention from policymakers and investors alike. Food security is no longer solely an agricultural issue; it has become a strategic concern closely linked to energy security, trade flows, and geopolitical stability. Recent crises have demonstrated that vulnerabilities in one part of the global economy can quickly spread across sectors and borders.

For Jordan, the current environment presents both challenges and opportunities. The country remains exposed to fluctuations in global food prices due to its reliance on imports for a significant share of its food requirements. At the same time, Jordan’s position as a major producer of phosphate and fertilizer products provides a potential competitive advantage. Increased global demand could strengthen export revenues, support industrial growth, and enhance Jordan’s role within international agricultural supply chains.

The lesson is clear. Geopolitical risks can no longer be measured solely through the lens of oil and gas markets. While the world watches energy prices and tanker movements through strategic waterways, a less visible but equally critical threat may be developing in fertilizer markets. If oil powers the global economy, fertilizers sustain the global food system. Prolonged disruptions in their production or trade could trigger consequences that extend far beyond agriculture, affecting inflation, economic growth, and social stability worldwide.