Dr. Hamad Kasasbeh

Recent developments point to the possibility of an agreement between the United States and Iran, which could open the door to broader regional calm and a more stable flow of oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz. If this happens, the impact will not remain limited to politics or maritime security.

It will extend to global markets, especially energy, food, and international trade. Stability in this vital passage could reduce market fears, lower shipping and insurance costs, and push oil and gas prices toward decline or, at least, toward more predictable levels.

The importance of this shift lies in the fact that energy is not separate from the rest of the economy. Oil and gas do not affect fuel prices only. They affect transportation, industry, agriculture, storage, fertilizer production, and global trade. Therefore, any calm in energy markets can gradually reduce the costs of food and production worldwide. It can also give the global economy a chance to recover after a period of pressure that raised living and production costs in many countries.

However, the key question is not only what will happen in global markets, but how countries will deal with this shift. Stability in energy and food prices may reduce inflation, improve investor confidence, and give companies a better ability to plan. It may also create room later for lower financing costs if price pressures ease. Yet the benefits of this relief will not be automatic. Countries with clear plans and quick action will be better able to turn lower global costs into growth and job opportunities.

For Jordan, the impact of global energy and food price fluctuations has been clear because of the nature of the Jordanian economy and its strong reliance on imports for energy, several basic goods, and production inputs. Therefore, the pressures felt by citizens and the private sector were not caused only by local factors. A large part of them came from global increases in oil, gas, food, and shipping costs. The state dealt with this phase within limited margins, while working to maintain stability, ensure the availability of basic goods, and reduce the impact of shocks as much as possible.

From here, the move from a phase of rising prices to a phase of stability opens a different opportunity for Jordan. What is needed today is not only to wait for prices to fall, but to ensure that this decline turns into a clear domestic impact. If energy, food, and shipping costs decline, this should be reflected in transportation and production costs, in the prices of some goods, and in the purchasing power of citizens. A lower import bill may also ease pressure on the trade balance, reduce part of imported inflation, and give the economy more room to move.

Still, transferring this impact to the local economy requires a clear vision and careful institutional follow-up. In many cases, local prices rise quickly when global prices rise, but they do not fall at the same speed when global prices decline. Therefore, the coming phase needs close market monitoring, stronger competition, and more efficient supply chains, so that citizens and producers can feel the effect of global stability. The goal is not only to see better numbers in international markets, but to see this reflected in the cost of food, energy, transportation, and production inputs inside Jordan.

Here, the importance of productive sectors becomes clear. Industry, agriculture, services, and small and medium-sized enterprises can benefit from lower operating, transportation, and financing costs. But the real impact happens when this leads to higher production, better quality, and a stronger ability for Jordanian products to compete in local and foreign markets. This requires easier financing, faster procedures, and stable legislation.

The construction sector could also be one of the main beneficiaries of this shift. Construction is affected by fuel, transportation, machinery operation, imported materials, and bank financing. If these costs stabilize or decline, demand for housing, commercial projects, and infrastructure may improve. But turning this into real activity requires faster licensing, more active public projects, and financing directed toward projects that can create direct and indirect job opportunities.

Attracting investment and accelerating major projects is no less important than the issue of prices. Investors look for a stable environment, clear costs, secure supply chains, and predictable laws. If global energy and shipping risks decline, Jordan can strengthen its position as a safe destination for investment in water, energy, transportation, industry, tourism, and logistics. The moment of global stability should also be used to accelerate ready major projects, because they can support growth and reduce the long-term costs of the economy.

In conclusion, opening the Strait of Hormuz and stabilizing oil and gas trade may create a global opening in energy and food prices. But for Jordan, the real value lies in making good use of this opportunity. Jordan faced the period of rising prices under difficult conditions and limited margins.

The phase of stability, however, requires turning lower global costs into domestic benefits. Only then can the opening of the strait move from being a global headline to becoming a Jordanian opportunity for growth, employment, and improved living standards.