Ammon News - Energy expert Hashem Aqel said on Wednesday that the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, which began to be effectively implemented on April 13, has both direct and indirect repercussions on Jordan.

Main impacts on Jordan

In statements to "Ammon News", Aqel explained that the U.S. blockade has prevented the export of around 1.5–2 million barrels per day of Iranian oil through the Strait of Hormuz "through which about 20% of global oil supplies pass".

This blockade caused prices to surge above $100 per barrel, with Brent crude reaching $102 recently, before stabilizing at around $98–100 as of April 14, Aqel added.

He noted that Jordan imports more than 95% of its oil needs (gasoline, diesel, and fuel oil), mainly from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE via the Port of Aqaba. As a result, this global price increase directly raises the import bill and increases shipping and marine insurance costs, especially if tensions extend to Gulf or Red Sea ports.

Regarding the crisis, Aqel revealed that the government has already spent an additional $210 million to replace Mediterranean gas supplies, which had been halted, with diesel and fuel oil for electricity generation.

This new increase, he said, fuels inflation, raises transportation, industrial, and agricultural costs, and puts pressure on the state budget.

Also, Aqel pointed out that Iran has threatened that "no port in the Gulf or the Sea of Oman will be safe" if its ports are blockaded, which could endanger Jordan’s main supply sources (Saudi Arabia and the UAE), potentially increasing shipping costs or causing delays at Aqaba.

Government alternatives to protect consumers

Aqel indicated that developing oil shale is one of the best available alternatives for the government at present. Other options include importing liquefied natural gas (LNG) if infrastructure in Aqaba is expanded, and signing long-term agreements with countries not directly affected—such as Russia or the United States—despite higher shipping costs.

Oil price outlook amid the current crisis

Regarding future expectations, Aqel said the short-term trend is upward due to reduced supply caused by the blockade.

He added that the current oil price as of April 14 stands at around $98–100 per barrel for Brent, noting a slight drop yesterday amid hopes of renewed negotiations.

If the blockade continues for weeks, prices could rise to $110–120 per barrel—or higher in the event of Iranian escalation. If the crisis is resolved quickly, prices may return to $90–100.

He also warned that if the Strait of Hormuz is completely closed, oil prices could exceed $150 per barrel.

Potential rise in local fuel prices

Aqel concluded that the increase in global fuel prices will naturally be reflected in local fuel prices, as the official policy partially links domestic prices to global markets with periodic reviews.