Dr. Osama Gazal

The Arabs have controlled the region (The Gulf of the black gold oil), for a longer period, especially considering the spread of Islam and modern Arab states' establishment. Persians (Sassanids) controlled it for ~1000 years before the Arab conquest. The term "Persian Gulf" was commonly used historically, while "Arabian Gulf" is often used by Arab states. The name reflects the region's complex history and competing claims. Returning to the Historical overview of the strait we can find that Persians were the first major power to control the Gulf (definitely with the Strait of Hormuz), but Arabs have had a longer stretch of influence overall.

Historically, the name "Persian Gulf" stuck in Western maps, but Arab states prefer "Arabian Gulf" or "Gulf". The modern geopolitics of the Gulf involves complex regional dynamics, with Arab states like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar playing key roles. Iran's influence and tensions with Arab states, especially over issues like nuclear deals and regional power struggles, are significant factors. However, in the last 20 years, after the Iraqi regime of Saddam was destroyed, the conflict between Arab and Iran escalated into three main dimensions (Iran-Arab tensions: Proxy conflicts in Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon, Competition for resources and influence, lastly, and the most important, the Security pacts where US and European alliances with Gulf states). The Gulf has been a contested region, with various empires vying for control.


Amid the repercussions of war, the struggle for control, the imposition of influence, and the assertion of dominance by the strongest power in the region, the most potent leverage has emerged in the hands of the Persians—for now, the Hormuz. Whether this leverage remains in their grasp or is lost will depend on the unfolding course of the conflict. The Persian/Areanian Gulf has been strategically significant since ancient times, though it has experienced prolonged periods of Arab control, particularly following the collapse of the Persian Empire during the era of Caliph Omar ibn al-Khattab. With the decline of the Arab Caliphate and the rise of the Ottoman Empire, Persian influence over the region was reasserted.

Today, we are witnessing a renewed struggle for dominance and control over one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints. The Strait of Hormuz represents a formidable asset for the Persians, who seek to leverage it to exert pressure on the global stage, particularly by influencing oil prices. As one of the eight most strategically significant straits worldwide, it facilitates the transit of approximately 90% of globally traded petroleum fuels. More specifically, it ranks as the second most vital maritime passage, governing over 26% of the world's seaborne petroleum trade. Any sustained disruption or restriction of maritime movement through this strait would not only jeopardize oil and natural gas supplies. Still, it would also have profound implications for food security, both regionally and globally.

From the outset, international warnings have emphasized the necessity of maintaining the unimpeded functionality of this critical waterway through diplomatic engagement and commitment to peaceful conflict resolution. The focus has been on upholding humanitarian considerations and ensuring that the strait continues to serve its vital role in global trade. However, amid escalating military tensions and intensifying geopolitical rivalries, diplomatic channels and multilateral agreements have collapsed, and the security of international maritime routes has been severely compromised. The prevailing dynamic is now dictated by the logic of military force.

We must broaden our assessment of the potential consequences beyond the prevailing discourse centered on oil. While economists and military analysts have naturally concentrated on the hydrocarbon sector given its strategic importance and the immediate disruptions to energy markets caused by deteriorating security in the Strait of Hormuz, the repercussions extend far beyond petroleum. Despite the overwhelming military superiority of the primary adversary of the Persians—an ally of Arab states in this confrontation—the strait remains a highly advantageous asset for the Persians in this struggle. Even if the conflict remains confined to sporadic threats and patrols by small naval vessels, the strategic value of this chokepoint endures. However, the current reality involves more than posturing; it includes the mining of waters and tangible measures to maintain control over this historically contested passage.

Now we can't understand issues related to the Oil-Food Security Nexus without returning to the recent Oil Price Shocks and Food Security in the region, recognizing that these are food-import-dependent nations. The 1991 Gulf War led to a sharp increase in oil prices, which in turn raised transportation and production costs for food commodities. This resulted in higher food prices, disproportionately affecting low-income households. Countries in the Arabian Gulf region, already reliant on food imports, faced exacerbated food insecurity due to increased costs and disrupted supply chains. The current crisis calls for global food price volatility. The war-induced oil price spike contributed to global food price instability, emphasizing the vulnerability of food systems to energy market shocks.

Current oil prices already offer a glimpse into the potential impact of a full-scale closure of the strait. Yet, the threat to global food security is equally dire and will become increasingly evident over time, affecting both the region and the world at large.

Furthermore, the environmental toll is mounting, with elevated greenhouse gas emissions resulting from military operations, the destruction of vast fuel storage facilities, and the potential ignition of oil wells should the conflict escalate. The consequences will not be confined to the Gulf states and Iraq, affecting tens of millions of people, but will reverberate across the interconnected global system. Food security is at risk, agricultural productivity will decline, and production costs will surge. Farmers will face increased operational expenses and greater difficulties in exporting goods, all of which will contribute to rising prices and exacerbate food insecurity. This raises a critical question: Are the countries in the region prepared to withstand these far-reaching and debilitating indirect consequences should the conflict persist? This burden will weigh most heavily on nations with fragile economies and vulnerable food systems.

Natural disasters caused by climate change were historically several times more devastating than those caused by other factors, but the impact of these disasters has now become more balanced as a result of humanity' ability to adapt to climate change and lessen loss of life. However, the impact of these calamities on food security remains significant due to the lack of sustainable human agricultural systems. Military conflicts and wars related to the control and expansion of influence, such as those currently taking place in the Middle Eastern Gulf region, known as the Arabian or Persian Gulf today, are among the most significant human-related activities contributing to climate change, given their link to emissions that exacerbate this phenomenon.

Despite my scientific perspective and in-depth understanding of climate change, which is regarded as a natural periodic phenomenon on Earth that existed before humans and their activities, human-caused pollution has piqued the interest of numerous experts. They investigated the potential influence of higher concentrations of specific human-caused emissions on climate change using mathematical and statistical models. And because many activists in this field are not specialists but merely amateurs in the world of climate change, participating in workshops, traveling, and gaining fame, the idea of real climate change has shifted to be associated only with the gas emissions resulting from direct human activities, such as energy production from fossil fuels, or indirect activities, such as livestock and poultry farming, among other activities that many accuse of causing climate change.

Climate change is a reality, despite mistakes in mathematical and statistical models that underpin all scenario forecasts based on carbon dioxide levels, despite studies showing that carbon dioxide concentrations were far higher during ice ages. These errors result from assigning scientific topics to unqualified individuals who are only interested in money and fame and do not delve into understanding the meanings of the phenomenon of climate change in a scientifically precise manner, rather than going beyond logic and science in terms of Earth's climate history. Although their violations of logic have become sophisticated and presented through statistical and mathematical models that astonish people and even impress those managing these models into believing results that are built on non-scientific foundations, without considering a scientific historical study of Earth's climate and the real factors influencing this climate, and excluding factors related to the primary energy source for the planets of the solar system and the changes occurring in this system.

In my opinion, any model intended to imitate reality and predict the future is a failure if it does not account for sun-related phenomena and their impact on Earth's climate. However, as scientists, we must acknowledge that climate change is a reality that we face, and we must adapt as humans to the dangers of climate change, particularly during periods of drought and rainfall scarcity, as well as seasonal overlap and irregular rainfall distribution in comparison to what we and the Earth's biosphere are accustomed to. And let us not forget the risk that has gone unnoticed due to the focus on global warming and the greenhouse effect, which is associated with a fall in temperature as well as a reduction in carbon dioxide levels, resulting in reduced agricultural production and affecting food security.

Interestingly, this more genuine hazard, from which we are now clearly experiencing, demonstrates that death rates from severe cold waves greatly outnumber those from heat waves. Many specialized scientists have written on the subject, and their studies have demonstrated that the future will be worse, especially as the current solar cycle brings us into a period of low solar activity, increasing the risk of the Earth entering a little ice age.

Our readiness for food security concerns is inadequate and has not been thoroughly investigated, as we continue to rely on investment strategies in four key crops: wheat, rice, corn, and soy, to assure more efficient production, but with less diversification and greater fragility. Our agricultural policies have utterly overlooked the value of crop diversity in ensuring a more resilient and sustainable food system in the face of climate change and the hazards of disrupted supply chains, as is currently occurring because of the Strait of Hormuz issue.

With great thankfulness, the focus and debate were on human activities that produce gas emissions that are thought to exacerbate or accelerate climate change on Earth. However, there has been only timid discussion of the impact of wars in this equation, as they are regarded as one of the most prominent and dangerous reasons, not only for the direct suffering of peoples involved in conflicts or forced to participate in bitter wars between great powers seeking control and extending influence, but also for the indirect effects, which are regarded as the most difficult and dangerous in the long run. Conflicts, the desire for control, and the expansion of influence, away from the meanings of humanity and the spirit of sharing in the Earth's resources, and prioritizing the principles of diplomacy and agreements that guarantee everyone's rights, lead to an increased focus on heavy military industries and the pollution and gas emissions they produce, which are accused by mathematical and statistical model studies of causing climate change, global warming, and extreme events related to heat waves or extreme cold periods or heavy rain and hard drought periods.

The Gulf War and subsequent conflicts underscore the intricate relationship between oil prices and food security. Policymakers must consider the food security implications of oil price volatility when addressing regional stability and global food systems. Our Recommendations include:

1. Diversify energy sources to reduce dependence on oil.
2. Enhance regional food production and trade cooperation.
3. Implement policies to mitigate the impact of oil price shocks on vulnerable populations.
4. To address future challenges following the escalation of global food insecurity risks as a result of the Strait of Hormuz crisis, it is critical to first defuse the crisis and develop plans to prevent vital waterways for global food and energy supply chains from becoming threats and tools in the hands of regimes that disregard international law and respect for the integrity of global trade, exploiting such situations to exert pressure and control. Perhaps the solution is to put these critical waterways under international supervision.
5. Furthermore, it is critical to expand efforts to urge countries to strengthen their food security strategy and prepare for emergencies, whether natural disasters caused by climate change, such as droughts, or by conflict.

The Persians are known for wisdom, civilization, legacy, and a worldview with deep roots in administration and the capacity to govern and expand their power. But the problem with the Persians is not with the people who carry on this great heritage, which I personally respect and admire; rather, the problem is with the system that uses religious beliefs to control and be hostile to others, not with the ancient Persian civilization. Despite America's vast dominance, there have been several studies and projections, but has Iran opted to commit suicide? And will it take positive steps for the benefit of its people and the region, as Japanese Emperor Hirohito did after World War II, adopting a peace, development, and renunciation of foreign interventions and the nuclear issue to save the country (similar to Japan's renaissance), because continuing on the path of confrontation is very costly and will lead to Iran's destruction and return to the Stone Age.

The Middle East, particularly Jordan, faces significant food security challenges exacerbated by regional conflicts, economic vulnerabilities, and climate-related stressors. Key factors complicating food security in Jordan include:

1. Trade Disruptions: Jordan's reliance on imports for staple foods (e.g., wheat, sugar) makes it vulnerable to trade disruptions in neighboring countries, especially given the current regional instability.
2. Economic Pressures: High unemployment, inflation, and a substantial public debt burden strain household purchasing power, limiting access to food.
3. Water Scarcity: Jordan's severe water scarcity impacts agricultural production, increasing dependence on imports and vulnerability to global price shocks.
4. Refugee Crisis: Hosting a large refugee population (e.g., Syrians) strains food systems and increases demand for limited resources.
5. Climate Change: Decreasing rainfall and increasing temperatures threaten agricultural productivity, further straining food availability.
6. Global Price Volatility: Jordan's import-dependent food system is exposed to international price fluctuations, particularly for staples like wheat and oil.

Jordan's food security is intricately linked to regional stability, global market trends, and climate resilience. Addressing these challenges requires, enhancing regional trade cooperation, investing in water-efficient agriculture, implementing social protection programs for vulnerable populations, diversifying energy sources to reduce import bills. We pray for a peaceful resolution to this conflict and an end to power struggles that come at the expense of peaceful nations. May God grant the peoples of this region the strength to overcome these tribulations and crises, and to transcend the sectarian divisions and animosities that have plagued them for decades. We also pray for the protection of our leadership, our people, and our nation, Jordan, as an oasis of security, peace, love, and coexistence in a region that has long endured more than its share of global conflicts.

The Environmental Advisor, Dr. Osama Moh’d Gazal.