Hasan Dajah

The tense relationship between the United States and Israel on one side, and Iran on the other, constitutes one of the most prominent sources of instability in the Middle East. The Iranian nuclear program, Tehran's expanding regional influence, and Israeli and American security considerations all contribute to making the possibility of military confrontation a constant topic in strategic discussions. While the continuation of war seems inevitable, analyzing potential scenarios helps in understanding the trends of escalation or containment. Below are three main scenarios, along with the conditions and probabilities of each.

Scenario One: A Limited Military Strike Targeting the Iranian Nuclear Program: This scenario involves a focused military operation led by Israel with direct US support, targeting key Iranian nuclear facilities such as enrichment centers, infrastructure related to the nuclear program, and missile launch sites. The primary objective is to delay or disable Iran's ability to develop a nuclear weapon without escalating into a protracted, full-scale war.

The operation would include precision air and missile strikes, cyberattacks, and possibly special operations. Iran is likely to retaliate indirectly, such as by using its regional allies or carrying out attacks against Israeli or US interests.

Conditions for Verification: The Iranian nuclear program reaching a level that Israel considers the “nuclear weapons threshold.”

The failure of the diplomatic track or the collapse of any new nuclear agreement.Israel receiving political and military support from the United States.A strategic assessment that the strike will not lead to a wider regional war.

Chances of Verification:The chances of this scenario are moderate compared to others. Israel has previously carried out preemptive strikes against nuclear programs in the region, and the United States supports a limited operation to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. However, the high risks of escalation complicate the geopolitical situation in the region.

Second Scenario: A Widespread Multi-Front Regional War. In this scenario, the initial strike develops into a major regional conflict. The confrontation begins with an Israeli and US strike and a direct clash between Iran and the United States in the Gulf, which then expands to include several arenas in the Middle East. Various regional actors could become involved in this conflict, either directly or through local allies, leading to confrontations in several areas such as the Gulf, the Eastern Mediterranean, or Israel's northern border. Iran would also target US bases in the region, while the US and Israel would strike Iranian military infrastructure.

This scenario would cause significant disruption to global energy markets and trade, potentially leading to the closure of vital shipping lanes, in addition to widespread humanitarian and security risks.

Conditions for this scenario to materialize:Failure to contain the escalation following a major military strike.Direct involvement of US ground forces in the confrontation alongside local militias.A large-scale Iranian response that goes beyond limited or indirect reprisals.The involvement of other regional actors in the fighting or in support of military operations.

Chances of Verification:

The chances of this scenario are estimated to be low to medium. Most parties recognize that a full-scale regional war would be extremely costly, both politically and economically. However, the risk of miscalculation or unintended escalation could push events in this direction, especially given the current tense regional environment.

Third Scenario: A Catastrophic Scenario: The Collapse of Deterrence and a Shift to the Use of Radiological and Tactical Weapons. This scenario assumes that the “mutual deterrence” between the United States, Israel, and Iran takes a catastrophic turn after limited military operations fail to achieve their objectives. The confrontation begins with conventional strikes, cyberattacks, and economic pressure, but the continuation of the conflict and its transformation into a war of attrition leads to a gradual collapse of deterrence. As military and political pressures escalate, a dangerous escalation could occur, beginning with the use of rudimentary radiological weapons to create a deterrent shock, then opening the door to the potential use of a limited tactical nuclear weapon, which would constitute a dangerous turning point in the international order.

The repercussions of this scenario would be profound at both the regional and international levels. The mere use of a radiological or tactical nuclear weapon—even on a limited scale—would lead to a global political and security shock. The world could witness a new wave of nuclear arms races and increased pressure on states to acquire similar deterrent capabilities. Furthermore, global markets, particularly energy and international trade markets would be significantly affected because of heightened geopolitical risks. Regionally, this escalation could reshape security alliances in the Middle East, with states increasingly relying on military and technological deterrence. Concerns about the proliferation of radioactive or nuclear materials outside state control would also intensify, posing a long-term security challenge.

Conditions for Verification:The failure of conventional military operations to achieve their strategic objectives against Iran.Increased political and military pressure on the warring parties, coupled with the absence of a clear diplomatic solution.A gradual breakdown of traditional deterrence mechanisms that previously prevented the use of radiological or nuclear weapons.

The belief of one party that a qualitative escalation could impose a new deterrent reality that alters the course of the war.

Chances of Verification:The probability of this scenario is very low compared to other scenarios, because the limited use of radiological or nuclear weapons carries enormous strategic risks and could lead to uncontrollable international reactions. Furthermore, most major powers recognize that crossing this line could usher in a more dangerous phase in the international system. Nevertheless, this scenario remains a topic of discussion in strategic analysis literature as the “catastrophe scenario”-a path that may arise not from a fully planned decision, but from a series of miscalculations, mutual escalation, and crisis management failures. Therefore, international diplomatic efforts typically focus on preventing this stage and maintaining channels of communication and containment between the competing parties.

The three scenarios indicate that the possibility of war between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other remains, but it takes different forms, ranging from a limited strike to a wider regional war, or a continuation of deterrence and indirect conflict. In light of current data, the third scenario appears to be the most likely, while the first remains a viable option if the nuclear crisis reaches a critical stage. The second scenario, however, remains the least likely but poses the greatest threat to regional stability and the international order.

Hasan Dajah - Professor of Strategic Studies at Al-Hussein Bin Talal University