Dr. Hamad Kasasbeh

The relationship between China and the United States is no longer a conventional economic rivalry. It has gradually evolved into a quiet economic war conducted without direct confrontation. In this type of conflict, military force is replaced by the use of resources, energy, and supply chains as tools of pressure. This shift in the nature of competition among major powers was highlighted by the International Monetary Fund in its 2023 reports, which pointed to the transition from trade disputes to deeper forms of economic pressure.

China enters this confrontation with a key strategic advantage: its broad control over rare earth minerals. These minerals are essential for modern industries, from advanced electronics to electric vehicles and renewable energy. According to data from the U.S. Geological Survey in 2024, China dominates the most complex stages of rare earth processing, giving it significant industrial leverage that is difficult to undermine quickly.

At the same time, China faces a structural weakness in its heavy dependence on imported oil. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration in 2024 show that more than 70 percent of China’s oil consumption comes from abroad. This makes its economy highly sensitive to price increases or supply disruptions and turns energy into an effective pressure tool in the hands of the United States.

From this perspective, U.S. strategy does not aim to completely block China’s access to oil, but rather to make that oil more expensive and more risky. The objective is not a sudden cutoff, but gradual economic pressure. This is clearly reflected in U.S. policy toward Iranian and Venezuelan oil, where sanctions are used to raise the cost of energy for China, as indicated by U.S. political and economic analyses in 2024.

This approach has pushed China in recent years to accelerate its policy of diversifying oil sources, including imports from sanctioned countries. Reports by Reuters in 2024 and 2025 indicate that Iranian and Venezuelan oil is often sold at discounted prices. However, higher transportation costs, insurance risks, and political uncertainty significantly reduce the real value of these discounts and make such supplies less stable.

With regard to Iran in particular, U.S. pressure is not limited to domestic or regional developments. It is directly aimed at preventing the emergence of any stable oil relationship between Tehran and Beijing. According to international energy market analyses covering the period from 2023 to 2025, Washington has worked to disrupt any channel that allows low-cost Iranian oil to reach China, given the direct impact this would have on lowering China’s energy costs.

Venezuela represents a different strategic case, not because of its current export volumes, but because of its vast oil reserves. OPEC data from 2023 confirm that Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves. This explains why U.S. pressure focuses on preventing this resource from becoming a long-term pillar of China’s future energy security.

Russia has also become part of this equation, emerging in recent years as an important energy supplier to China, especially following the war in Ukraine. Energy data from U.S. and international sources in 2024 indicate that discounted Russian oil has helped China cover part of its energy needs. However, this option remains constrained by sanctions and geopolitical risks and cannot serve as a stable foundation for long-term energy security.

By contrast, Arab oil—particularly from Gulf countries—occupies a different position in this conflict. According to estimates by the International Energy Agency in 2024, Gulf producers play a stabilizing role in global energy markets. They maintain strategic relations with the United States while expanding economic partnerships with China, keeping their oil largely outside direct confrontation.

In the end, the economic war between China and the United States does not reflect a temporary dispute or a short-term policy choice, but a long-term struggle over the shape of the future global economic order. The United States is not seeking direct confrontation with China, but rather to slow its economic rise by turning its dependence on energy into a lasting pressure point through higher oil costs and fewer low-cost options. China, in turn, is trying to protect its growth path by relying on its industrial strength and diversifying energy sources, even at a higher cost and with greater risks. Between these two paths, it becomes clear that global power is no longer measured by military strength, but by the ability to control vital resources, manage energy costs, and dominate the economic arteries that determine who grows, who slows down, and who leads the emerging international system.