Dr. Hamad Kasasbeh

Yemen has lived with uncertainty for almost ten years. This reality is now part of the region’s daily scene. Recent developments in southern Yemen have brought the issue back into focus. Not only politically, but economically as well. The concern today goes beyond events on the ground. It is about their impact on a region already under pressure.

The Yemen file matters because it involves regional actors with real economic weight. When views differ on how this file should be managed, the effects appear quickly. Markets become cautious. Investor confidence weakens. Decisions are delayed. Uncertainty replaces optimism.

After nearly a decade since 2015, the situation in Yemen can no longer be seen as temporary. It has become a long-term reality. This reality carries a rising economic cost. Risks increase. Long-term projects slow down. Even during calm periods, investors remain hesitant.

The problem is not limited to southern Yemen itself. The bigger issue is the continuation of disagreements without a clear path forward. Whether the situation moves toward escalation or remains unclear, the result is similar. More pressure on regional economies. Less confidence. Less ability to plan for the future.

Over time, temporary concern can turn into a permanent condition. When uncertainty lasts too long, economies pay the price quietly. Financing becomes more expensive. Investments are postponed. Many projects never move forward. These losses do not appear suddenly. They build up slowly and weaken growth and job creation.

The impact is not limited to investment. Trade and shipping are also affected. Southern Yemen lies close to critical maritime routes. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is one of them. Around 6 to 7 million barrels of oil pass through it every day. A large share of global trade does as well. Any tension in this area raises shipping and insurance costs immediately. These costs then affect prices and supply chains across the region.

In the Gulf, these pressures are already visible. Investment activity slows down. Financing costs rise. Markets react more strongly to political news. This matters because Gulf economies account for more than 45% of total Arab GDP. Any disruption there does not stay local. It spreads across the wider Arab economy.

The wider regional picture makes the situation even more serious. Crises continue in Gaza and the West Bank. Sudan faces deep instability. Libya, Syria, and Iraq remain under strain. Somalia is still fragile. In such an environment, the absence of a peaceful and stable settlement in southern Yemen does not threaten the economy alone. It puts Arab national security in the Red Sea at risk by exposing maritime trade and navigation to greater danger.

In the end, developments in southern Yemen are no longer a local issue. They affect the region’s economy and its security at the same time. Continued disagreements increase costs and delay recovery. In a fragile region, reaching a lasting peaceful settlement that satisfies all parties is the smartest and least costly option. It protects economic interests. It safeguards Arab security in the Red Sea. And it limits external ambitions.