Raad Mahmoud Al-Tal

Jordan’s real GDP in the third quarter of 2025 reached approximately JD11,137 million, reflecting a growth rate of 2.8 per cent compared to the same quarter in 2024. This figure is part of a gradually rising trend, beginning with an average growth of 2.5 per cent in 2024, rising to 2.6 per cent in Q4 2024, then 2.7 per cent in Q1 2025, and stabilising at 2.8 per cent in Q2 and Q3—a cumulative increase of 0.3 percentage points. This trajectory indicates steady and consistent growth, characterised by continuity rather than abrupt fluctuations.

At the sectoral level, preliminary data show that the fastest-growing activities in Q3 2025 compared to Q3 2024 were: Mining and quarrying (7.4 per cent), agriculture, forestry and fishing (6.3 per cent), manufacturing (5.1 per cent), electricity supply (4.6 per cent) and transport and storage (4 per cent).

Significantly, around two-thirds of Q3 growth came from productive sectors with high value added, reflecting an important structural shift in Jordan’s economy. The mining sector, despite being the fastest-growing, contributes relatively less to overall GDP due to its smaller size and lower employment impact, though it benefits from rising domestic and international demand for raw materials such as phosphate and potash. Agriculture’s strong growth reflects higher productivity and increased food exports, reinforcing food security and rural incomes. Manufacturing, while growing at a slightly lower rate, makes the largest contribution to GDP growth due to its scale, highlighting its role as the main driver of the economy.

Electricity supply and transport sectors, growing at 4.6 and 4 per cent respectively, play a supportive role by enabling industrial and agricultural activity through essential infrastructure and services. This underlines that the economy’s strength depends not just on the growth rate of individual sectors but on their size and actual contribution to overall output.

Two key insights emerge from this data. First, Jordan’s economic growth is steady and largely driven by productive sectors. Second, manufacturing represents the most critical point of strength, making industrial policy a central lever for future growth acceleration. Expanding this role requires targeted investment in logistics infrastructure, energy efficiency, workforce skills, and financial and monetary policies that encourage productive and export-oriented investment.

Policy measures should be integrated and phased. In the short term, protecting industrial momentum through targeted credit facilities, temporary tax incentives linked to technology and exports and stronger local supply chains is essential. In the medium term, the economy needs to shift from resource-based growth towards value-added growth, particularly in mining and agriculture, by linking these sectors to manufacturing and building longer, more labor-intensive production chains.

Fiscal policy remains critical. While maintaining fiscal sustainability is essential, directing more capital expenditure toward productive sectors and strategic infrastructure will generate higher long-term economic returns. Investments in logistics, renewable energy, water management, and smart agriculture can raise productivity and reduce exposure to external shocks, particularly in supply chains, food, and energy.

The labour market faces challenges. Current growth is insufficient to absorb new entrants, especially graduates. Policies must focus on vocational and technical training aligned with the needs of leading sectors, including advanced manufacturing, transport and logistics, and financial and technology services. Coordination between training programmes and the labour market can improve employability and narrow the skills gap.

Maintaining a steady growth path amid a volatile regional environment demonstrates Jordan’s structural resilience and the economy’s ability to absorb external shocks. Yet, this resilience remains partial; the current pace of growth is insufficient to address structural challenges such as youth unemployment and limited job creation.

Jordan’s Q3 2025 performance shows that the economy can sustain gradual growth despite regional uncertainties. At the same time, it highlights the limits of current growth and underscores the need for policies that deepen and diversify economic activity, generate sustainable employment and improve living standards.