Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

With the Jordanian Air Force announcing the execution of airstrikes inside Syrian territory, Jordan has clearly signaled a shift from a posture of monitoring and containment to one defined by preventive action and pre-emptive measures.

Recent operations were largely confined to specific and limited objectives, such as targeting drug warehouses that have for years fueled smuggling into Jordan, or striking terrorist sites belonging to armed groups operating along the other side of the border.

Today’s strikes, however, represent a fundamentally different approach for Jordan. While disrupting arms and drug trafficking networks remains the most visible and immediate objective, it would be misleading to reduce these operations to a purely technical or operational dimension. Two additional factors are central to understanding the significance of this move: the geography being targeted and the timing of the strikes.

The geography in question has, since the collapse of the Syrian state, become inherently political. It cannot be separated from the broader regional transformations now underway, including primarily Israel’s increasing involvement in this equation. Jordan’s actions therefore go beyond counter-smuggling operations; they constitute a clear political message rejecting the reshaping of realities along its northern border in ways that could carry long-term strategic consequences. Whether through the emergence of a de facto Druze entity or the descent of the area into prolonged instability, the outcomes directly threaten Jordan’s security environment.

Timing is equally critical. The strikes reflect a forward-looking assessment of the dangers looming in southern Syria, particularly with the anticipated opening of a confrontation with the Daesh terror group in the region. The risk is not limited to a renewed battle with the organisation itself, but extends to the possible proliferation of armed groups, widespread weapons circulation, and the descent of the area into sustained chaos. From this perspective, Jordan’s pre-emptive action sends a clear message: confrontation and engagement are no longer hypothetical options but active components of state policy.

While Jordan’s military movement delivers firm and unambiguous signals that the use of force has moved to the forefront of the national security agenda, it also anticipates a far more complex phase ahead for southern Syria. This reality demands sustained readiness, prolonged vigilance, and preparedness for escalation, including the spread of militias, potential cross-border targeting, and serious political repercussions that cannot be ignored.

Jordan has so far rejected the emerging vision for the future of Sweida, insisting instead on maintaining a direct relationship with the central authority in Damascus. It has also attempted to promote an initiative aimed at addressing the growing crisis in the province, presented as a framework for resolving the Druze issue. Yet this initiative lacked the participation of two key actors shaping today’s fragmented landscape: representatives aligned with Sheikh Hikmat Al Hijri, and Israel, which has emerged since Syria’s collapse as a central player in this geography. Israel has sought to reshape the area both militarily, through its security presence, and politically, by cultivating alliances with the Druze community.

This reality places Jordan’s position in direct contradiction with Israel’s vision for southern Syria. Amid broader disagreements across multiple issues, this divergence stands out as one of the most dangerous fault lines at this stage. Jordan increasingly finds itself facing Israel’s strategic approach to the region, a dynamic that could lead to political escalation, particularly if Israel opts for more coercive policies. Such measures could include leveraging sensitive pressure points, foremost among them water resources, which have become a key instrument of political leverage, followed potentially by gas and electricity, or even a suspension of security and intelligence coordination.

All of this unfolds at a moment when southern Syria is entering a complex security transition, while escalation in the West Bank raises the risk of a wider effort to externalise the Palestinian crisis into the regional environment.