Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

Two incidents, geographically distant yet ideologically aligned, occurred in striking simultaneity: a terrorist attack in Australia’s largest city, Sydney, targeting a civilian gathering during a Jewish holiday celebration, and an attack in the Syrian city of Palmyra that targeted US soldiers, carried out by a member of the Syrian security services. Together, these events have once again brought to the forefront the issue of dealing with individuals with jihadist backgrounds, the risks of relying on them entirely, and the direct security repercussions such reliance entails.

The coincidence of these attacks with preparations to confront Daesh in Syria raises serious questions about the capacity of the current Syrian administration to play an effective role in this confrontation, as well as the nature and scale of the resulting security risks, both inside Syria and beyond its borders.

Daesh’s renewed activity comes amid an expected escalation against it on the Syrian front. The group is likely to intensify its operations, not only to confront the authorities in Damascus, but also to weaken them and expose their fragility. Such operations may no longer be confined to the group’s traditional areas of influence in the Syrian desert or the southern regions, but could extend into urban centers, in an attempt to project a political message and a direct threat, signaling Daesh’s desire to transcend the logic of operating from peripheral spaces.

This trajectory increases the likelihood of reactivating jihadist networks, particularly if escalation leads to weakened local authority and fragmented security control. Fragmentation, local unrest and the absence of centralized authority all facilitate the resurgence of jihadist cells, especially those inherently driven by cross-border regional ambitions. In such an environment, these groups may resort to temporary cooperation with local militias to secure weapons or operational bases, transforming the landscape into a prolonged conflict with the potential to expand into neighboring geographies.

At the international level, the most significant implication of the Sydney attack lies in the fact that the “lone wolf” model remains Daesh’s most effective operational tool. These actors, however, are not necessarily isolated individuals, but are often organised and externally guided. Information revealed that the perpetrators had received training in the Philippines, along with instructions regarding the method, timing, and location of the attack. Through this, Daesh seeks to convey a clear message of its resurgence and its ability to operate across vast and disparate geographical spaces.

In its renewed ideological discourse, Daesh is also attempting to exploit the recent rise in antisemitism, while maintaining its core objectives unchanged: targeting states, religious sites, and civilian gatherings. This approach reflects the group’s intent to reaffirm its capacity to strike internationally, particularly as a direct confrontation with its strongholds in Syria approaches.

With the reactivation of sleeper cells and the spread of global security threats, the world is entering a new phase of security challenges that go beyond traditional threat patterns or simple operations. The diversification of targeting methods appears increasingly likely, as ISIS seeks to exploit the divisions and contradictions that have emerged over the past two years, along with the political and social transformations experienced by several societies.

The group is also capitalizing on the expansion of the “enemy list” within current US discourse, which now encompasses a wide range of actors, from Hezbollah and Hamas to the Muslim Brotherhood and others, providing Daesh with a rhetorical environment conducive to justifying its movements and building temporary alliances.

While reactivating the international coalition against Daesh may appear to be the natural response, the absence of effective actors on the ground, particularly in Syria, makes a decisive outcome highly difficult, increasing the likelihood of a prolonged conflict and expanding repercussions. Betting on the Syrian government to play a decisive role remains uncertain, given internal complexities and the challenges of relying fully on its forces.

Reopening the file of confrontation with ISIS inevitably raises the probability of terrorist attacks, as the group is likely to rely on surprise and media amplification, carrying out operations in symbolically significant locations to project an image of its ability to strike influential capitals. This propaganda-driven approach has long been central to Daesh’s strategy, exploiting symbolic occasions to maximize fear and psychological impact.