Hasan Dajah

A year has passed since the regime change in Syria, an event that reshaped the political and security landscape of the region and had far-reaching repercussions for neighboring countries, most notably Jordan, which shares a long border with Syria and intertwined social, economic, and security ties. It was clear from the outset that the transformations in Syria would not remain confined within its geographical borders, but would directly impact Jordan's security and stability, given the geographical proximity, population overlap, and interdependence on numerous issues.

One year after the change, Syria is undergoing a process of restructuring on both the political and security levels. The state continues to suffer from weak institutional structures as a result of years of conflict, which limits its ability to regain full control over its territory and leaves vast areas vulnerable to the presence of local forces with varying loyalties. This reality creates ongoing challenges to Syrian national security, as the threats are multifaceted, ranging from irregular armed groups and smuggling networks to complex foreign interventions. All of this makes stabilizing Syria a goal that requires more time and concerted efforts.

Adding to the complexity of the situation is the continued Syrian economic crisis, with no clear end in sight. This exacerbates the suffering of the population and generates renewed waves of internal and external displacement. Economic pressures are typically linked to social and security instability, making the environment within Syria fragile and susceptible to disruption by any sudden change. Furthermore, the Syrian borders continue to experience instability in some areas, making them potential conduits for smuggling weapons, drugs, and other illicit goods. This phenomenon has become one of the most prominent challenges facing Syrian national security, given its connection to organized networks that are beyond the state's capacity to easily combat.

These challenges are not confined to Syria's borders but naturally extend to Jordan, which was directly affected during the first year of the regime change. The security of the Jordanian-Syrian border has become a matter requiring constant monitoring and increased precautionary measures, especially given the repeated attempts at infiltration and smuggling that exploit security gaps on the Syrian side of the border. Drug trafficking, in particular, has emerged as a growing threat affecting Jordanian national security and straining the capabilities of its security apparatus in monitoring and combating these illicit activities.

Furthermore, Jordan continues to grapple with the repercussions of the Syrian crisis through the refugee influx, which places constant pressure on its economic and service infrastructure. Another year of instability in Syria means millions of Syrians will remain displaced, imposing significant burdens on Jordan's education, health, infrastructure, and labor sectors. The possibility of new waves of displacement remains if the situation deteriorates in any part of Syria, a scenario that further exacerbates the already precarious situation in Jordan.

The repercussions are not limited to security and social aspects but extend to the economic and political spheres as well. Trade between Jordan and Syria has traditionally relied on border stability and the unobstructed operation of land routes, but the ongoing unrest within Syria has hindered the return of trade relations to normal levels. Jordan has thus lost a significant portion of the trade that connected its markets to Turkey, Lebanon and Europe via Syrian territory, which in turn has impacted several sectors of the Jordanian economy.

On the political front, the changes in Syria have had a clear impact on the balance of power in the region. The shifting alliances and the multitude of regional and international actors within Syria have created a complex political environment that presents both opportunities and challenges for Jordan. Jordan finds itself compelled to closely monitor developments on the Syrian scene to ensure that no new political arrangements emerge that conflict with its interests or threaten its stability.

The passage of a year since the change in Syria clearly demonstrates that Syrian and Jordanian national security constitute an interconnected system that cannot be addressed in isolation. Continued instability in Syria means continued security pressures on Jordan, whether across the border, through the refugee crisis, or via indirect economic and social impacts. These pressures are compounded by repeated Israeli interventions in southern Syria and its attempts to influence the balance of power there, which threaten border stability and create vacuums that could be exploited by smuggling networks or uncontrolled groups. Furthermore, the emergence of separatist movements in some areas, such as Suwaida, increases the risk of the Syrian state's disintegration, potentially exposing Jordan to the possibility of unstable entities emerging near its northern border. Therefore, stability in Syria constitutes a crucial line of defense for Jordan, as it reduces cross-border risks and revitalizes economic and social relations between the two countries.

Thus, it can be said that the first year after the change revealed the extent of the interdependence between the two sides and demonstrated that the future of security in the region depends on Syria's ability to restore its stability and Jordan's capacity to deal flexibly with regional changes. Mutual cooperation, activating communication channels, and supporting efforts to rebuild the Syrian state all represent a logical path to strengthening security and stability in both countries, serving their shared interests in confronting the challenges posed by the new reality.

Hasan Dajah is professor of strategic studies at Al-Hussein Bin Talal University