Ammon News - AMMONNEWS – Banan Malkawi - The increase in numbers of Palestinian refugees in Jordan reached 8 percent between 2005 and 2008, a study conducted by researcher Hibatullah Obeidat revealed.

The study, entitled "The Implications of the 'Alternative Homeland' Jordanian Option on Jordanian Security", which studied the numbers of Palestinian refugees in Jordan from 1950-2008, stated that the numbers of Palestinian refugees registered in UNRWA has reached 1,930,703.

In 1950, the number of refugees was 506,200, to increase in varying rates each decade, with a 16% increase in 1985 to a total of 929,097 before the disengagement decision with the West Bank.

In 1995, the numbers of refugees reached 1,288,197, a 39% increase from year 1990. A 22% increase was seen in year 2000, with 1,570,192 registered Palestinian refugees.

The study revealed that the numbers of Palestinian refugees in 2005 increased 14% compared to year 2000, registering 1,795,326 refugees.

The study also examined future scenarios of the Jordanian role in a solution for the Palestinian cause, including the temporary settlement option of a confederation between Jordan and the Palestinian Territories.

Obeidat studied the implications of the so-called 'Jordanian Option,' on Jordanian national security, which represents elements of Israeli policy towards the struggle over existence in Palestine.

The study found that future scenarios for a Jordanian role in resolving the Palestinian cause are being seriously considered by Israel, which find in such alternative options strategies to safeguard its interests.

Among the scenarios of confronting the "alternative homeland in Jordan" visions is the military option; based on use of military power to resist the establishment of Jordan as an alternative homeland.

Another option is economic engagement; based on a Tri-Lateral context of economic engagement with Israel where Israeli job markets would be open to Jordanians and Palestinians, which would alleviate the economic and demographic pressures on Jordan. As for its implications on Israel, the study found that the increase in gap between the three economies would funnel immigration into the strongest economy, hence opening demographic borders. This option was found viable for the Jordanian and Palestinian side, but would have a negative impact on Israeli demographic makeup, which Israel resists.

The final scenario; reparations: the study found that the alternative of reparations may return to the negotiations table, stipulating naturalizing 300,000 Palestinian refugees in return for Israel's commitment to only 54% of the occupied land (Resolution 181).

This option was also discussed in President Bush's April 14, 2004 initiative, which stresses nationalization of refugees and permanency of Israeli settlements on occupied territories.

The study concluded that the two-state solution remains the most viable for Jordanian strategy in the meantime, despite its complexity and regressing indicators of the possibility of its success.