Eng. Mohannad Abbas Haddadin

Since President Donald Trump took office as president of the United States less than two months ago, he sparked an economic war on the world in general and on his allies in particular, and he did not know that it would turn against him, as the US debt is still rising, reaching 36.5 trillion dollars, and the US economy slowed down last month, which harmed the policies of the US Federal, which struggled within 3 years to reduce inflation to target 2%, to start reducing interest, but Trump's decisions to impose tariffs on US imports and the uncertainty that dominated financial markets, may return the world to square one after Corona pandemic as the spectre of recession may reappear this year, fears the impact of customs duties on the demand for goods has increased among manufacturers in the West, which will push these companies to reduce production and thus weaken the demand for oil, and the rise in prices of raw materials entering the industries as a result of these duties, in addition to getting rid of illegal workers who were providing services and working in factories and companies with cheap wages, all these reasons will lead to higher commodity prices and this means a return to inflation again.

These measures have misled the financial markets, as Cryptocurrencies have lost 530 billion dollars this year, and the dollar has become the worst among currencies, and Wall Street's losses amounted to 6.5 trillion dollars in two months, as stocks have lost 3.5 trillion dollars in two weeks, and the share of technology companies was the largest in the loss, as the 6 largest technology companies recorded losses of 2.2 trillion dollars since the beginning of the year, and the highest loss is Nvidia, which lost 1.2 trillion dollars by 17 billion dollars daily, and not only that, there is the threat of a Government shutdown next week.

As for oil, it is likely to decline in the coming period as a result of the trade war by raising mutual tariffs between industrialized countries and as a result of the diplomatic movement to stop the Russian-Ukrainian war, which eases geopolitical tensions and logistical transportation of oil, as well as the possible lifting of sanctions on Russian oil, as well as the policy of some OPEC plus countries to increase their production volumes outside of agreements, and the completion of the policy of voluntary production cuts by Russia and Saudi Arabia will all affect oil prices and futures contracts.

But on the other hand, the problem of the Middle East is still in place, which may turn things upside down, Israel is evading the implementation of the second and third stages of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza,with the risk of occupying Gaza ,and trying to open new fronts in the West Bank and extends over the Syrian and Lebanese territories, and is preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, which may involve the United States and the wounds of its crumbling economy will deepening, especially since the European Union and the US neighbors Canada and Mexico are now not all on one line and all lurking for each other, not to mention the traditional enemies of the United States Russia, China, North Korea, as well as Iran, who will conduct naval exercises near the Iranian border, increasing tension.

The US bill will be a doubling of the trade war with allies and the Middle East war if Israel recklessly instigates it.

Engineer Mohannad Abbas Haddadin, is a GM of Jobkins Center for Strategic Studies and Expert, strategic and economic analyst.
jcfss@jobkins.com