Amer Abu Alrob

With the collapse of the central government and the absence of any transitional authority, Syria faces a political vacuum that further complicates the scene. The Assad regime’s unexpected downfall and Bashar al-Assad’s escape to Russia left Syria in unprecedented chaos. Extremist armed groups, including those with radical Islamist ideologies, quickly seized control of Damascus with little resistance, ushering in a new era of uncertainty.

Immediately after the regime’s fall, the militant group “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham” took control. Alongside it, dozens of allied extremist organizations now dominate approximately 70% of Syrian territory.

The Joy of Syrians

Most Syrians celebrated, and public squares filled with people rejoicing. However, the release of prisoners, including those accused or convicted of criminal offenses, led to a chaotic situation.

There is hope that beloved Syria can move toward a better future after years of war and destruction. A stable Syria would positively impact Jordan and the region. However, many anticipate prolonged instability due to widespread arms and the dominance of extremist factions, posing significant security risks to Jordan.

The Threat to Syrian Territorial Unity

The greatest losers in this chaos will undoubtedly be the Syrian people if armed groups expand and reject opportunities for civilian forces to launch a transitional phase and rebuild state institutions.

Under the control of extremist militants, scenes of violations, revenge, and field executions have emerged, including exhuming and burning graves. These developments have raised fears among sectarian minorities.

Some minorities have taken drastic measures in response. Druze leaders in northern regions, for example, have called for Israeli annexation of their territories, expressing a desire to live as Israeli citizens. Such demands threaten the territorial integrity of Syria and encourage Tel Aviv, which has already occupied strategic locations such as Quneitra Province and Mount Hermon—a critical military vantage point bordering Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, and Israel.

It is no secret that countries like Turkey and Qatar funded and armed the groups that took over Damascus. They were also the first to send officials to meet with Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, who paraded through Damascus streets accompanied by intelligence chiefs from both nations. This indicates that Turkish influence has replaced Iranian dominance over Syria following Assad’s fall.

A New Phase of Violations

The world was shocked by scenes of field executions, the exhumation and burning of graves, and threats to pursue members of Assad’s regime and the Syrian military and security apparatus. Thousands of Shiites fled to neighboring countries amidst fears of targeted violence against specific sectarian groups. Alawite families, in particular, have been forced to flee in large numbers. Meanwhile, Syrian refugees face significant challenges at the Lebanese border, signaling a looming humanitarian crisis beyond Syria’s borders.

Damascus, along with cities like Homs and Aleppo, has witnessed field executions of former officials and military officers, as well as the looting of state institutions, most notably the Central Bank of Damascus.

Regional and Jordanian Concerns

As chaos escalates in Syria, concerns about its repercussions on Jordanian and regional security grow. Threats range from the potential division of Syria and occupation of its lands by Israel or Turkey—both of which already control parts of Syria—to the fear of a new wave of refugees exacerbating economic pressures on Jordan and neighboring countries.

The dominance of extremist groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, classified as a terrorist organization, raises fears of terrorism spilling over into neighboring states. The emergence of ISIS flags in Damascus and other Syrian areas serves as a stark reminder of the 2014 Mosul scenario, where unchecked chaos led to a catastrophic humanitarian and security crisis. Syria’s current state is even more conducive to the spread of extremism and the influx of radical fighters from around the world.

The Spread of Extremism and Terrorism

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the largest controlling faction, has a history of radicalism, sparking international fears of Syria becoming a new launching pad for global terrorism. The sight of ISIS flags in Damascus streets evokes memories of Mosul, where unchecked chaos created long-lasting humanitarian and security disasters. Syria is now even more vulnerable to becoming a hub for extremism and attracting radicals from around the globe.

The Arab and Jordanian Role

Recognizing the gravity of the situation, Jordan quickly called for an emergency meeting in Aqaba with Arab and major international states. The meeting resulted in a unified vision for Syria’s future, marking an important step.

There is a shared sense of urgency to prevent Syria’s descent into prolonged sectarian and ethnic wars. This compels Jordan and influential Arab states to act swiftly on regional and international levels. A proactive Jordanian role, in coordination with international powers, is crucial to preventing chaos from spreading across the region.

Syria after Assad stands at a critical juncture. Stability can only be achieved through concerted regional and international efforts. Otherwise, the entire region, including Jordan, will bear the cost of chaos and security breakdown.