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This report uses data from the European Centre for Disease Control. These data are updated daily and whilst there may be a short delay, they are generally consistent with Ministry reports. These data are then used to back-calculate an ‘inferred number of COVID-19 infections’ using mathematical modelling techniques (see Report 12 for further details) to estimate the number of people that have been infected and to make short-term projections for future healthcare needs.

Epidemiological Situation

Total Reported Cases  136,555  , New Reported Cases4,469   Total Reported Deaths 1,618  New Reported Deaths 71 Estimated Ref f  0.99 (95% CI: 0.83-1.13)

The figure below shows the cumulative reported deaths as a function of the time since the 10th death was reported. Dashed lines show the expected trajectory for different doubling times of the epidemic. For example, with a doubling time of 3 days, if there are currently a total of 20 deaths reported, we would expect there to be 40 deaths in total reported in 3 days-time, 80 deaths in 6 days-time, 160 deaths in 9 days-time etc. For most epidemics, in the absence of interventions, we expect a doubling time of 3-4 days for this disease.

 The curve in blue shows the predicted decrease in Ref f due to increasing immunity in the population resulting from people being infected by COVID-19. Dark blue shows the 50% CI and light blue shows the 95% CI. Individuals infected with COVID-19 are assumed to remain immune within our analysis. The upper horizontal dashed line shows the value of Ref f at the beginning of the epidemic, highlighting the impact of immunity on transmission. 3 Using the model fit, we can forecast the expected trajectory for cumulative deaths assuming the transmission level, represented by the final Rt value stays the same over the next 28 days. N.B. Jordan is forecast to be close to or surpassing our best estimates for healthcare capacity in the next 28 days.