By Amer Al Sabaileh

Recently, I had the chance to participate in the Lebanese Army’s Strategic Research and Studies Center’s Third Regional Conference: “The Arab world 2013 and the dynamics of change, challenges in security, economy and political administration.” Many interesting points of views were shared during
this meeting by participants from a variety of backgrounds and nationalities.

Discussions of Syria were central at the conference. It was interesting to note the different approaches of the American vision, and the Russian ideas that in the end appeared much more logical. The Russian position is that the initiatives taken by some players have been central to the failure of a political solution. Moreover, that terrorism is the product of the continuous use of force to bring down the Syrian regime.

According to the Russian point of view, rebalancing Syria cannot be achieved by military intervention. Instead a multilateral dialogue is needed amongst the diverse Syrian opposition groups within and outside the country. Identifying a single group to represent the Syrian opposition is leading to the further defragmentation of those who are opposed.

A key outcome of the conference was a Russian commitment to supporting immediate negotiations between the regime and the various moderate opposition groups.

Additionally, the Russian ambassador in Beirut once again called for the UN council to adopt the Geneva Communiqué. A former American senior diplomat expressed that while the US administration acknowledges the Geneva communiqué, he also insisted that Assad must step down.

Placing a pre-condition that is contradictory to the heart of this agreement further suggests the US strategy in Syria aims to keep the crisis going to improve its negotiating position with Russia.

In the end, the Russian vision appears to be the most practical, taking into account the actual situation within Syria and delivering a clear road map for resolution to the Syrian crisis. What is also clear is that political conflicts outside Syria take precedence over conflicts inside Syria.

Dr.Amer Al Sabaileh
http://amersabaileh.blogspot.com