By Amer Al Sabaileh

The Syrian crisis is currently passing through three major critical phases that may be described as the following:

1 – Heading cautiously towards a regional war.
2 – Concerns regarding the eruption of internal chaos in neighboring countries of Syria and the Gulf.
3 – Gathering more effective cards for the political settlement.

Between Washington and Moscow

From the first day of the Syrian crisis, the US has adopted a policy of exploiting every circumstance or ally to improve its bargaining strength in negotiations with Russia. American pragmatism envelops Gulf, Arab and regional levels.

On the Gulf level, it is obvious that the US is making use of the Saudi-Qatari rivalry. Their competition has led to a deep rift in the Gulf Cooperation Council and Qatar has emerged as the apparent vital player, especially after the taming of the Khalid Masha’al line within Hamas concluding with its precipitation on Qatar. This might well enable Qatar to weaken the Saudi and Jordanian role in the Palestinian question, smoothing the way for Qatari ambitions to put an end to the Arab peace initiative and launch one of their own.

In addition, the American success in achieving diplomatic reconciliation between Turkey and Israel gave Qatar an extra winning card. Looking for allies, American patronage of the Turkish-Kurd understanding was an essential input towards creating a united Kurdish front against the Syrian regime.

Saudi-Iranian competition is another card in the US strategic game. It is helping America to put pressure on the Iraqi government to change its position on Syria. The surprising resignation of the Lebanese government will also increase tension in the region.

Tension is also mounting on the Golan front in the form of limited military provocations as a potential warning for a future regional war. If the US plays its cards right, this may suit their purposes of ensuring active participation of allies on the Syrian borders.

On the Syrian- Jordanian borders there are developments in military security, economic, social and even administrative quarters. The scenario is an attempt to put more pressure on Jordan to change its position towards Syria in order to obtain complete border control as an effective siege on Syria. It worth’s mentioning here, that during the press conference between King Abdullah II and President Obama in Amman, Obama sent an indirect message to Jordan, by saying that king Abdullah was the first to ask Bashar Al Assad to step down, as if now, the Jordanian new position should start from this point.

From the beginning of the Syrian crisis the Jordanian state has shown a responsible, balanced outlook that reflects an understanding of Jordanian strategic interests . It’s efforts through regional and international political activism have been directed towards a settlement that defends the interests of the Syrian people, Moreover, it is clear that the Jordanian role in the Arab summit was to rationalize the immature politics that accepted any kind of alternative representation for Syria. Such behavior, especially from Qatar, would lead to catastrophic consequences for both Syria and the region. It would simply lead to fragmentation of the armed opposition on Syrian territory, leading to loss of communication with armed factions and encourage what might be called “the breeding ground of autonomous armed groups”. The effects could be disastrous and difficult to contain as we are already seeing. A clear sign of this crisis came after the refusal of the FSA to recognize the interim government. This decision had a prompt impact within the FSA, as Col. Riad Al-Assad the founder of the FSA got his leg blown off in car bomb.

The Russian reaction has seemed one of calm up to now as Moscow knows that most of the American allies are incapable of taking any step that might lead to a regional war or chaos. Tensions, however, are expected to appear more in different geographical areas, from Afghanistan and Africa to the Korean peninsula. However, there may be a few surprises such as the threat of the Russian Foreign Minister, Lavov, to call of the Geneva communiqué' and the unexpected naval drills ordered by President Putin that surprised not only Russian armed forces but also neighboring countries, especially Turkey.

By Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh
http://amersabaileh.blogspot.com