By Amer Al Sabaileh

Despite the enormous amount of pressure Jordan has faced in the last two years from all around, the Jordanian state has managed three serious challenges.

Firstly, there is the pressure from events in Egypt. Secondly, the regional implications of developments in Palestine, Hamas activism and the attempts to displace the Yarmouk refugee camp in Damascus. Finally, the third challenge has been around the attempts to topple the Syrian regime with Jordan playing a key role both logistically and operationally.

In recent years most Jordanians have not had much confidence that the state is capable of playing the strategic game to promote Jordanian interests. The established bureaucrats occupying key decision-making positions have appeared incapable of dealing with the rapid changes at both a regional and global level.

However, since the begging of the Syrian Crisis, things have started to change. Jordan has managed to deal with the new regional polarizations that have emerged with the Turkey-Qatar influence. Actually, the Jordanian state has faced and managed various kinds of pressure, regionally and internationally.

Many believe that the pressure on Jordan as a result of the changes in Egypt is from the wider Turkey-Qatar coalition who are looking to punish Jordan for its regional polices like its management of Syria and the refusal to allow Hamas back into the country.

The Jordanian responses have surprised many, especially those who bet on Jordan’s inability to react on the ground. The Egyptian Prime Minister’s visit to Amman demonstrates the effectiveness of Jordan’s tactics compelling Egypt to revise their recent policy, especially on the gas issue.

The recent attacks on the Yarmouk refugee camp were an attempt to push the Palestinians toward Jordan, which could find itself responsible for the destiny of another half a million Palestinians. It is important to mention here that Jordan has taken proactive measures to deal with this issue. Pre-emptive military intervention in Syria was a clear message from the Jordanian Army that it would not allow the displacement of Palestinians from Syria.

Another important Jordanian development is the upcoming visit of the Emir of Qatar to Ramallah. The visit is part of a strategy to undermine the Saudi backed ‘Arab peace initiative’ as Qatar is looking to place itself at the center of any coming solution. This would result in the marginalization of Jordan and the Palestinian authority. King Abdullah II’s recent visit to Ramallah was again a pre-emptive move the to save the current peace initiative and coordinate a new plan, that could be appealing to the international community, the US in particular.

King Abdullah II most probably discussed this new plan with the British Prime Minister in his latest visit to London, as the King is seeking European backing to face the Qatari-Turkish plan. In this regard, it is important not to exclude the meaning of the visit of the Iraqi prime minister Al Malki and the Kuwaiti prime minister to Amman, which clearly shows the Jordanian new regional dimension.

We should look next to Jordan to be more open with the Syrian national opposition, especially the “The National Coordination Committee for the Forces of Democratic Change”. This group could play a major role in the shaping of the coming transitional government in Syria. This would serve as insurance for Jordan against any negative consequences that could occur as a result of any potential political settlement in Syria.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh
http://amersabaileh.blogspot.com