By Amer Al Sabaileh
The coming days could be witness to a terrifying rise in bloodshed in Syria in the form of targeting civilians, and seeking to destroy the image of the Syrian regime, in order to expose it as incapable of controlling its land. Increasing violence in Syria is focused on influencing the political discussion with regards to the political exit plan, which precedes the formation of the Syrian transitional government.
Russia, who has always refused to discuss any proposal far from that which was decided at the “Geneva Meeting”, could now face a real challenge in the face of change on the ground in Syria.
The United States had initiated the formation of its loyal cabal of those who oppose the Syrian regime. Actually, the US has affirmed its full support for the so called "Unified Syrian opposition", which was recently formed in Doha. The State Department deputy spokesman, Mark Toner, said:"We look forward to supporting the National Coalition as it charts a course toward the end of Assad's bloody rule and the start of the peaceful, just, democratic future that all the people of Syria deserve." "We will work’, he added, ‘with the National Coalition to ensure that our humanitarian and non-lethal assistance serves the needs of the Syrian people."
It is clear that Washington is trying to re-mould the form of the political settlement in Syria through the creation of a new opposition, which will be marketed as the sole representative of the Syrian people. This will put an end to the Russian-backed plan outlined at the Geneva Meeting, and will consequently give the Americans a real political victory in Syria.
Russia has responded by hosting some groups from the Syrian national opposition in Moscow, in order to provide a realistic vision to stop the violence, to accomplish a political transition, and above all, to maintain the Syrian state. This Russian vision is reflected in the words of the chief of national coordination of the forces of peaceful change abroad, Haytham Manna, promoting the idea of a "Geneva II". Manna considers this to be key to building a position which might be approved by the five permanent members of the Security Council, especially, the United States and Russia.
From another perspective, the Russian delegate to the United Nations, Vitaly Churkin, in a press conference on the 29th of November, assured that the time has now come for a new meeting of the working group on Syria. He also asserted that "the continued escalation will only lead to more damage" stressing "we are trying to put pressure on the government in Syria to convince them that there is no military solution to the crisis and the need for them to sit at the negotiating table with the opposition."
On the same day, at the level of international diplomacy, Lakhdar Brahimi, the UN envoy to Syria, reaffirmed the validity of the so-called Geneva Communiqué as the base from which a solution to the conflict in that Arab country should form.
The current battle in Damascus may be the final stage anticipating the calling of a cease-fire. Some reports assure that fighters in Syria have received very sophisticated communication and jamming technology. This might explain the opposition’s recent and significant progress on the ground. Other reports are tackling the ambiguous role of groups of the Syrian internal security forces in facilitating the entry of weapons and militants. Targeting Damascus International Airport sends a clear message that confrontation inside Syria will be fierce, symbolically, it would mean that entry and exit from Syria is no longer easy. With this in mind, what happens in Damascus nowadays could change the shape of the whole political settlement. The cost of maintaining the current Syrian political system has become too high, for both the allies of Syria and the Syrian Army. Therefore, moving forward in the political process might be the first step on the road to stop the violence in Syria.
Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh
http://amersabaileh.blogspot.com
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