“Menendez will not make it easy for Biden, especially that the latter needs him to get his senior foreign policy appointees confirmed [in Senate],” Senior Fellow at the Washington-based Middle East Institute Randa Slim told Al Arabiya English.
Congress and INARA
Legal ramifications of a US return to the JCPOA face the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act (INARA). Based on the original JCPOA, the US president has to present Congress with a periodic explanation of why such a deal serves national security interests. If the president fails to do so, Congress has the authority to fast-track legislation that can reimpose US sanctions that are otherwise lifted under the JCPOA.
Every 90 days, the president has to prove to Congress that he can certify the following:
- Iran is fully implementing the agreement.
- Iran has not committed a material breach of the agreement.
- Iran has not taken any action that could significantly advance its nuclear weapons program.
- Suspension of sanctions against Iran is appropriate and proportionate to measures taken by Iran concerning terminating its illicit nuclear program and vital to US national security interests.
Biden could argue that a new deal has been agreed, deeming it not subject to INARA, although the law states that the president “shall keep Congress fully informed of any initiative or negotiations with Iran concerning its nuclear program, including any new or amended agreement.”
Republicans will undoubtedly argue that Biden must comply with INARA.
“Biden will want to assert he doesn’t have to. There will be a showdown,” a Republican Senate aide told Al Arabiya English.
Separately, the various types of sanctions are bogged down in technical and legal details that the Trump administration carefully studied to make it difficult for future administrations to undo.
Nuclear sanctions coupled with terrorism sanctions and human rights abuse sanctions will be challenging to disentangle without a legal battle.
Acting Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Joey Hood previously told Al Arabiya that the US would lift “certain,” but not all, sanctions on Iran if it returned to JCPOA compliance.
Traditional US allies in the Middle East, Gulf
Biden has also been faced with increased pressure by friends and foes to strike a more comprehensive deal with Iran, including its ballistic missile program and support to militias across the Middle East.
The issues have been a major point of concern for Washington’s Gulf allies and Israel. And the regional powers reportedly continue to look on with skepticism over the lack of coordination for a second deal, as was the case in 2015.
Asked by Al Arabiya English if the US consulted with its Gulf allies and Israel, or if they would carry their concerns to next week’s talks, a State Department official refused to comment “on any private diplomatic discussions.”
Iran’s local currency and economy have been battered by the sanctions and have impeded its ability to support its proxies, such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthis.
With presidential elections in Iran slated for later this year and conservatives expected to see a candidate from their side of the political aisle become the next Iranian president, political analysts in Washington believe Tehran may try to stall any progress.
US officials have struck a downbeat tone over expectations for an imminent breakthrough after the indirect talks, although they said this was the first step toward returning to the “right path.”
Iran’s top diplomat, Mohammad Javad Zarif, said the talks would “rapidly finalize sanction-lifting and nuclear measures for choreographed removal of all sanctions, followed by Iran ceasing remedial measures.” This suggested that Iran would not make any moves, as previously declared until the US lifted sanctions.
*Al Arabiya
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