I am not sure here but it appears to me that a common thread has been developing around the Middle East lately; we are seeing the Islamists being pushed back almost everywhere from their forefront popular positions since their rise at the beginning of the Arab Spring.
Is this all a coincidence? Maybe; but I can tell you from what I know of the history in the last 100 years in the Middle East, nothing happens out of a coincidence. Let us take a look here quickly to see since the beginnings of the Arab Spring how these Islamists have come to govern or are battling the existing regimes to govern:
• Arab Spring starts around later 2010 with widespread protests in many nations of the Middle East, followed shortly thereafter on 14th of January 2011 with the overthrow of Tunisian president after the immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi in protest to police corruption and miss-treatment. Islamists come to power after democratic election process.
• February 11, 2011, Egypt after the 18 days of protests overthrows Hosni Mubarak from office after 30 years of reign. Islamist come to power under Morsi after democratic election process.
• August 23, 2011 Muammar Qaddafi overthrown with the assistance of the West, Islamist manage to gain many seats and Sharia civil courts are established after Qaddafi merged the two courts in 1973.
• November 23, 2011 Yemen overthrows Salah and establishes an new constitution and unity government, however major groups of armed Islamist groups still govern many parts of the country to include those of the Ansar al-Sharia, Abyan, Shawbah, and the Shiite Houthi rebel group who have had clashes with Saudi Arabia. Although it should be highlighted that many of the Islamist groups have competing interests and all do not have the same agenda outside of the overthrow of the current government. Many of these groups, especially those of Ansar al-Sharia an al-Qaeda affiliated group have been targeted by the West and some Middle Eastern states.
• March 15, 2011 Syrian civil conflict starts, Al-Nusra Front, an affiliated al-Qaeda group, along with the competing Free Syrian Army are seeking the overthrow of the Baath Alawite government of Bashar Al-Assad; lately the two rebel groups are fighting each other.
• Minor Protests in Jordan, Oman, Morocco, Mali and even in the GCC states from time to time by Islamist groups and others seeking reform and change. As well as Shiite protests in Bahrain and sectarianism in Iraq.
Today what we see is that the Arab Spring brought with it some profound changes and many Islamists came to power, some through democratically elected ballot boxes, and some with the inadvertent help by the West. Although all seek some form of Islamic change, they vary from the fundamentalist/salafist extreme seeking a caliphate type Middle East to those of the Muslim Brotherhood who seek a milder approach to Islamic governance.
This process has alarmed many internal and external powers. Seeing what is unfolding in Syria and fearing Islamist rule, especially those that are gained by armed conflict, both of these internal and external forces have come to the conclusion that this development must stop. This fear is basically the same fear against communism in the past that of the domino effect as illustrated by the above history.
Presently the US and Western governments have elected to not step into the Syrian conflict full force as they did in Libya after that debacle, or provide heavy weaponry to the rebels in Syria for fear these might fall into the hands of the Islamists. They have publically gone on record that they and others would not like to see al-Nusra Front come to power even if the rebels lose and Assad stays in power. They seem to feel they can deal with him and Iran much more than with an Islamist regime in power.
The US and the West along with many moderate Arab Nations (some openly, others not) have also expressed some satisfaction with the military coup against the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and the overthrow of Mursi.
With such a large Muslim population, the loss of Egypt to the Islamist in a free election was devastating and secretly all wished for his quick demise. Couple this with the possibility of Syria falling to the Islamist; the domino effect across the Middle East in their eyes was bound to happen. This they feared could translate into Afghanistan, Pakistan and other predominately Muslim nations in the Caucuses and Asia.
Can one argue that the rise of Communism in the 1940’s-1980’s and Islamism are alike? It is obvious the West has learned that the tactic of stopping communism’s rise in the 40’s-80’s did not work militarily as defined by the Korean and the Vietnam conflicts.
They are aware that economics was the demise of communism and since these nations all suffer from poor economies, many inherited from past authoritarian regimes, they hope they will soon also fail as well. As such, economic and military aide was doled out in small amounts with many conditions attached, and efforts initiated for political compromise and reconciliation were either thwarted as in Syria under Geneva 1 and 2 and in Egypt where non-military aide was not so forthcoming.
One cannot fault these nations for this, as they are seeing it from their potential interests. But where does this leave the Arab Spring? Is it dead and we in the Middle East will be doomed to eternity to be ruled by authoritarian or military regimes?
Many today are hoping that this may be the demise of Islamists desires to rule and that the over-all public will see the futility of electing an Islamist regime because of the perceived poor governance and poor leadership qualities due to their failure to turn the poor economic situations around, and will instead turn to more pluralistic secularist regimes. I am not sure that this will work as long as the majority of the Arab population perceives outside interference negatively, which presently it does.
One could conclude that in either case the Middle East will not revert back prior to the Arab Spring, as Pandora ’s Box has been opened and what we end up with will depend on largely how the new developments in Egypt and Syria play out in the next few months and years.
As for you my brothers and sisters of Jordan, we must stop and start perceiving our own future and how our new system of governance will play out and how we can help ourselves and leaders to achieve our goals. We presently are relying heavily on foreign aid to prop ourselves up and more-over have yet to mobilize all parties and stakeholders in the future of our State. This we can do much easier now, then if we end up falling like our neighbors have in turmoil.
God Bless Jordan and its People
By Abdulillah
I am not sure here but it appears to me that a common thread has been developing around the Middle East lately; we are seeing the Islamists being pushed back almost everywhere from their forefront popular positions since their rise at the beginning of the Arab Spring.
Is this all a coincidence? Maybe; but I can tell you from what I know of the history in the last 100 years in the Middle East, nothing happens out of a coincidence. Let us take a look here quickly to see since the beginnings of the Arab Spring how these Islamists have come to govern or are battling the existing regimes to govern:
• Arab Spring starts around later 2010 with widespread protests in many nations of the Middle East, followed shortly thereafter on 14th of January 2011 with the overthrow of Tunisian president after the immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi in protest to police corruption and miss-treatment. Islamists come to power after democratic election process.
• February 11, 2011, Egypt after the 18 days of protests overthrows Hosni Mubarak from office after 30 years of reign. Islamist come to power under Morsi after democratic election process.
• August 23, 2011 Muammar Qaddafi overthrown with the assistance of the West, Islamist manage to gain many seats and Sharia civil courts are established after Qaddafi merged the two courts in 1973.
• November 23, 2011 Yemen overthrows Salah and establishes an new constitution and unity government, however major groups of armed Islamist groups still govern many parts of the country to include those of the Ansar al-Sharia, Abyan, Shawbah, and the Shiite Houthi rebel group who have had clashes with Saudi Arabia. Although it should be highlighted that many of the Islamist groups have competing interests and all do not have the same agenda outside of the overthrow of the current government. Many of these groups, especially those of Ansar al-Sharia an al-Qaeda affiliated group have been targeted by the West and some Middle Eastern states.
• March 15, 2011 Syrian civil conflict starts, Al-Nusra Front, an affiliated al-Qaeda group, along with the competing Free Syrian Army are seeking the overthrow of the Baath Alawite government of Bashar Al-Assad; lately the two rebel groups are fighting each other.
• Minor Protests in Jordan, Oman, Morocco, Mali and even in the GCC states from time to time by Islamist groups and others seeking reform and change. As well as Shiite protests in Bahrain and sectarianism in Iraq.
Today what we see is that the Arab Spring brought with it some profound changes and many Islamists came to power, some through democratically elected ballot boxes, and some with the inadvertent help by the West. Although all seek some form of Islamic change, they vary from the fundamentalist/salafist extreme seeking a caliphate type Middle East to those of the Muslim Brotherhood who seek a milder approach to Islamic governance.
This process has alarmed many internal and external powers. Seeing what is unfolding in Syria and fearing Islamist rule, especially those that are gained by armed conflict, both of these internal and external forces have come to the conclusion that this development must stop. This fear is basically the same fear against communism in the past that of the domino effect as illustrated by the above history.
Presently the US and Western governments have elected to not step into the Syrian conflict full force as they did in Libya after that debacle, or provide heavy weaponry to the rebels in Syria for fear these might fall into the hands of the Islamists. They have publically gone on record that they and others would not like to see al-Nusra Front come to power even if the rebels lose and Assad stays in power. They seem to feel they can deal with him and Iran much more than with an Islamist regime in power.
The US and the West along with many moderate Arab Nations (some openly, others not) have also expressed some satisfaction with the military coup against the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and the overthrow of Mursi.
With such a large Muslim population, the loss of Egypt to the Islamist in a free election was devastating and secretly all wished for his quick demise. Couple this with the possibility of Syria falling to the Islamist; the domino effect across the Middle East in their eyes was bound to happen. This they feared could translate into Afghanistan, Pakistan and other predominately Muslim nations in the Caucuses and Asia.
Can one argue that the rise of Communism in the 1940’s-1980’s and Islamism are alike? It is obvious the West has learned that the tactic of stopping communism’s rise in the 40’s-80’s did not work militarily as defined by the Korean and the Vietnam conflicts.
They are aware that economics was the demise of communism and since these nations all suffer from poor economies, many inherited from past authoritarian regimes, they hope they will soon also fail as well. As such, economic and military aide was doled out in small amounts with many conditions attached, and efforts initiated for political compromise and reconciliation were either thwarted as in Syria under Geneva 1 and 2 and in Egypt where non-military aide was not so forthcoming.
One cannot fault these nations for this, as they are seeing it from their potential interests. But where does this leave the Arab Spring? Is it dead and we in the Middle East will be doomed to eternity to be ruled by authoritarian or military regimes?
Many today are hoping that this may be the demise of Islamists desires to rule and that the over-all public will see the futility of electing an Islamist regime because of the perceived poor governance and poor leadership qualities due to their failure to turn the poor economic situations around, and will instead turn to more pluralistic secularist regimes. I am not sure that this will work as long as the majority of the Arab population perceives outside interference negatively, which presently it does.
One could conclude that in either case the Middle East will not revert back prior to the Arab Spring, as Pandora ’s Box has been opened and what we end up with will depend on largely how the new developments in Egypt and Syria play out in the next few months and years.
As for you my brothers and sisters of Jordan, we must stop and start perceiving our own future and how our new system of governance will play out and how we can help ourselves and leaders to achieve our goals. We presently are relying heavily on foreign aid to prop ourselves up and more-over have yet to mobilize all parties and stakeholders in the future of our State. This we can do much easier now, then if we end up falling like our neighbors have in turmoil.
God Bless Jordan and its People
By Abdulillah
I am not sure here but it appears to me that a common thread has been developing around the Middle East lately; we are seeing the Islamists being pushed back almost everywhere from their forefront popular positions since their rise at the beginning of the Arab Spring.
Is this all a coincidence? Maybe; but I can tell you from what I know of the history in the last 100 years in the Middle East, nothing happens out of a coincidence. Let us take a look here quickly to see since the beginnings of the Arab Spring how these Islamists have come to govern or are battling the existing regimes to govern:
• Arab Spring starts around later 2010 with widespread protests in many nations of the Middle East, followed shortly thereafter on 14th of January 2011 with the overthrow of Tunisian president after the immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi in protest to police corruption and miss-treatment. Islamists come to power after democratic election process.
• February 11, 2011, Egypt after the 18 days of protests overthrows Hosni Mubarak from office after 30 years of reign. Islamist come to power under Morsi after democratic election process.
• August 23, 2011 Muammar Qaddafi overthrown with the assistance of the West, Islamist manage to gain many seats and Sharia civil courts are established after Qaddafi merged the two courts in 1973.
• November 23, 2011 Yemen overthrows Salah and establishes an new constitution and unity government, however major groups of armed Islamist groups still govern many parts of the country to include those of the Ansar al-Sharia, Abyan, Shawbah, and the Shiite Houthi rebel group who have had clashes with Saudi Arabia. Although it should be highlighted that many of the Islamist groups have competing interests and all do not have the same agenda outside of the overthrow of the current government. Many of these groups, especially those of Ansar al-Sharia an al-Qaeda affiliated group have been targeted by the West and some Middle Eastern states.
• March 15, 2011 Syrian civil conflict starts, Al-Nusra Front, an affiliated al-Qaeda group, along with the competing Free Syrian Army are seeking the overthrow of the Baath Alawite government of Bashar Al-Assad; lately the two rebel groups are fighting each other.
• Minor Protests in Jordan, Oman, Morocco, Mali and even in the GCC states from time to time by Islamist groups and others seeking reform and change. As well as Shiite protests in Bahrain and sectarianism in Iraq.
Today what we see is that the Arab Spring brought with it some profound changes and many Islamists came to power, some through democratically elected ballot boxes, and some with the inadvertent help by the West. Although all seek some form of Islamic change, they vary from the fundamentalist/salafist extreme seeking a caliphate type Middle East to those of the Muslim Brotherhood who seek a milder approach to Islamic governance.
This process has alarmed many internal and external powers. Seeing what is unfolding in Syria and fearing Islamist rule, especially those that are gained by armed conflict, both of these internal and external forces have come to the conclusion that this development must stop. This fear is basically the same fear against communism in the past that of the domino effect as illustrated by the above history.
Presently the US and Western governments have elected to not step into the Syrian conflict full force as they did in Libya after that debacle, or provide heavy weaponry to the rebels in Syria for fear these might fall into the hands of the Islamists. They have publically gone on record that they and others would not like to see al-Nusra Front come to power even if the rebels lose and Assad stays in power. They seem to feel they can deal with him and Iran much more than with an Islamist regime in power.
The US and the West along with many moderate Arab Nations (some openly, others not) have also expressed some satisfaction with the military coup against the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and the overthrow of Mursi.
With such a large Muslim population, the loss of Egypt to the Islamist in a free election was devastating and secretly all wished for his quick demise. Couple this with the possibility of Syria falling to the Islamist; the domino effect across the Middle East in their eyes was bound to happen. This they feared could translate into Afghanistan, Pakistan and other predominately Muslim nations in the Caucuses and Asia.
Can one argue that the rise of Communism in the 1940’s-1980’s and Islamism are alike? It is obvious the West has learned that the tactic of stopping communism’s rise in the 40’s-80’s did not work militarily as defined by the Korean and the Vietnam conflicts.
They are aware that economics was the demise of communism and since these nations all suffer from poor economies, many inherited from past authoritarian regimes, they hope they will soon also fail as well. As such, economic and military aide was doled out in small amounts with many conditions attached, and efforts initiated for political compromise and reconciliation were either thwarted as in Syria under Geneva 1 and 2 and in Egypt where non-military aide was not so forthcoming.
One cannot fault these nations for this, as they are seeing it from their potential interests. But where does this leave the Arab Spring? Is it dead and we in the Middle East will be doomed to eternity to be ruled by authoritarian or military regimes?
Many today are hoping that this may be the demise of Islamists desires to rule and that the over-all public will see the futility of electing an Islamist regime because of the perceived poor governance and poor leadership qualities due to their failure to turn the poor economic situations around, and will instead turn to more pluralistic secularist regimes. I am not sure that this will work as long as the majority of the Arab population perceives outside interference negatively, which presently it does.
One could conclude that in either case the Middle East will not revert back prior to the Arab Spring, as Pandora ’s Box has been opened and what we end up with will depend on largely how the new developments in Egypt and Syria play out in the next few months and years.
As for you my brothers and sisters of Jordan, we must stop and start perceiving our own future and how our new system of governance will play out and how we can help ourselves and leaders to achieve our goals. We presently are relying heavily on foreign aid to prop ourselves up and more-over have yet to mobilize all parties and stakeholders in the future of our State. This we can do much easier now, then if we end up falling like our neighbors have in turmoil.
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