Beyond the age of oil: Can Jordan be among the winners?
Oil symbolized economic power and geopolitical influence throughout the twentieth century. Every disruption in oil supply translated into soaring prices, slower global growth, and heightened uncertainty in financial markets. Yet the recent conflict following the US and Israeli military strikes on Iran delivered a different lesson. Despite the disruption of more than ten million barrels of oil per day through the Strait of Hormuz, along with nearly one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas trade, oil prices never reached the levels many analysts had anticipated. Instead, they peaked at around $104 per barrel before gradually retreating.
This does not mean the world escaped the crisis unscathed. Poorer Asian economies bore much of the burden through rising diesel prices and the prospect of higher food costs resulting from disruptions in fertilizer trade. The broader message, however, is that the global economy has become far less vulnerable to oil shocks than it was only a few decades ago.
Several factors explain this resilience, including diversified transportation routes, the use of strategic petroleum reserves, and the reallocation of energy imports. Yet the most significant factor has been the gradual transformation of the global energy mix. Renewable energy—and solar power in particular—has become a central pillar of the world's energy system. Recent reports indicate that renewables have surpassed coal for the first time in more than a century as the world's largest source of electricity generation, while solar power alone accounted for roughly three-quarters of the increase in global electricity demand. Solar's contribution to electricity generation has expanded nearly nineteen-fold over the past decade.
Oil remains the world's most heavily traded commodity, but its relative importance continues to decline. During the oil embargo of the 1970s, petroleum supplied nearly half of global energy demand. Today, according to the International Energy Agency, its share has fallen below 30 percent. This does not signal the end of the oil era, but it does indicate that the world is steadily moving toward a more diversified energy system with less dependence on a single fuel.
The story of solar energy demonstrates that major economic transformations are driven not only by natural resources, but also by visionary policies, innovation, and long-term investment. Since the first practical solar cell was developed in the 1950s, leadership in the industry has shifted from the United States to Japan, then Germany, and ultimately China, which successfully transformed innovation into mass production while dramatically reducing costs. Consequently, solar power has become one of the world's most competitive sources of electricity.
Will we merely observe this transition, or will we become one of its beneficiaries? In my view, Jordan's opportunity may be greater than many realize. If the twentieth century rewarded countries blessed with oil reserves, the twenty-first century may reward those capable of transforming abundant sunshine and wind into high-value industries and exports.
Jordan possesses several competitive advantages that position it well for this transition. It enjoys some of the world's highest levels of solar irradiation, promising wind resources, a strategic logistics hub in Aqaba, and an established phosphate and fertilizer industry. Together, these assets provide a strong foundation for developing a new economy centered on green hydrogen, green ammonia, and their downstream industries. This vision is already beginning to materialize through the approval of Jordan's first major green ammonia investment project in Aqaba, valued at more than US$1 billion, marking the country's entry into the global green fuels market.
However, success will not come simply from having sunshine and wind. Jordan's real competitive advantage lies not in exporting energy itself, but in transforming it into value-added industries. This means developing an integrated industrial ecosystem encompassing green hydrogen production, green ammonia manufacturing, low-carbon fertilizers, energy-intensive manufacturing powered by clean electricity, and advanced logistics and technology services. The greatest economic value will come from factories, supply chains, skilled employment, and high-value exports, not from exporting raw energy alone.
The world has undeniably entered a new era in which oil is no longer the undisputed king of energy markets. The defining question of the coming decades will no longer be who owns the largest oil reserves, but rather who can produce clean energy at the lowest cost and convert it into industries, exports, and quality jobs.
For Jordan, the opportunity is evident, but realizing it requires a clear execution strategy built around five integrated pillars. First, expanding renewable electricity generation to provide internationally competitive energy prices for industry. Second, accelerating green hydrogen and green ammonia projects in Aqaba while integrating them with Jordan's phosphate and fertilizer sectors. Third, establishing green industrial zones capable of attracting low-carbon manufacturing and export-oriented industries. Fourth, investing in research, education, and workforce development to build the human capital needed for the emerging green economy. Finally, forging long-term strategic partnerships with Europe and Asia, which are expected to become among the world's largest importers of green hydrogen and clean fuels over the coming decades.
Success in the transition should be measured by its ability to transform clean energy into higher value-added production, advanced industries, new exports, and highly productive employment. Just as oil formed the backbone of the global economy during the twentieth century, clean energy and green industries could become the defining economic drivers of the twenty-first.
If Jordan succeeds in seizing this moment by providing a stable investment climate and aligning its energy ambitions with a coherent industrial policy, it will not merely follow the global energy transition—it could emerge as one of its principal beneficiaries. In such a future, sunshine and wind will no longer be viewed simply as natural resources, but as strategic economic assets capable of driving growth, raising productivity, expanding exports, creating quality jobs, and placing Jordan on acompetitive and sustainable development path for decades to come.
The writer is a Former Jordanian Minister of State for Economic Affairs.
Oil symbolized economic power and geopolitical influence throughout the twentieth century. Every disruption in oil supply translated into soaring prices, slower global growth, and heightened uncertainty in financial markets. Yet the recent conflict following the US and Israeli military strikes on Iran delivered a different lesson. Despite the disruption of more than ten million barrels of oil per day through the Strait of Hormuz, along with nearly one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas trade, oil prices never reached the levels many analysts had anticipated. Instead, they peaked at around $104 per barrel before gradually retreating.
This does not mean the world escaped the crisis unscathed. Poorer Asian economies bore much of the burden through rising diesel prices and the prospect of higher food costs resulting from disruptions in fertilizer trade. The broader message, however, is that the global economy has become far less vulnerable to oil shocks than it was only a few decades ago.
Several factors explain this resilience, including diversified transportation routes, the use of strategic petroleum reserves, and the reallocation of energy imports. Yet the most significant factor has been the gradual transformation of the global energy mix. Renewable energy—and solar power in particular—has become a central pillar of the world's energy system. Recent reports indicate that renewables have surpassed coal for the first time in more than a century as the world's largest source of electricity generation, while solar power alone accounted for roughly three-quarters of the increase in global electricity demand. Solar's contribution to electricity generation has expanded nearly nineteen-fold over the past decade.
Oil remains the world's most heavily traded commodity, but its relative importance continues to decline. During the oil embargo of the 1970s, petroleum supplied nearly half of global energy demand. Today, according to the International Energy Agency, its share has fallen below 30 percent. This does not signal the end of the oil era, but it does indicate that the world is steadily moving toward a more diversified energy system with less dependence on a single fuel.
The story of solar energy demonstrates that major economic transformations are driven not only by natural resources, but also by visionary policies, innovation, and long-term investment. Since the first practical solar cell was developed in the 1950s, leadership in the industry has shifted from the United States to Japan, then Germany, and ultimately China, which successfully transformed innovation into mass production while dramatically reducing costs. Consequently, solar power has become one of the world's most competitive sources of electricity.
Will we merely observe this transition, or will we become one of its beneficiaries? In my view, Jordan's opportunity may be greater than many realize. If the twentieth century rewarded countries blessed with oil reserves, the twenty-first century may reward those capable of transforming abundant sunshine and wind into high-value industries and exports.
Jordan possesses several competitive advantages that position it well for this transition. It enjoys some of the world's highest levels of solar irradiation, promising wind resources, a strategic logistics hub in Aqaba, and an established phosphate and fertilizer industry. Together, these assets provide a strong foundation for developing a new economy centered on green hydrogen, green ammonia, and their downstream industries. This vision is already beginning to materialize through the approval of Jordan's first major green ammonia investment project in Aqaba, valued at more than US$1 billion, marking the country's entry into the global green fuels market.
However, success will not come simply from having sunshine and wind. Jordan's real competitive advantage lies not in exporting energy itself, but in transforming it into value-added industries. This means developing an integrated industrial ecosystem encompassing green hydrogen production, green ammonia manufacturing, low-carbon fertilizers, energy-intensive manufacturing powered by clean electricity, and advanced logistics and technology services. The greatest economic value will come from factories, supply chains, skilled employment, and high-value exports, not from exporting raw energy alone.
The world has undeniably entered a new era in which oil is no longer the undisputed king of energy markets. The defining question of the coming decades will no longer be who owns the largest oil reserves, but rather who can produce clean energy at the lowest cost and convert it into industries, exports, and quality jobs.
For Jordan, the opportunity is evident, but realizing it requires a clear execution strategy built around five integrated pillars. First, expanding renewable electricity generation to provide internationally competitive energy prices for industry. Second, accelerating green hydrogen and green ammonia projects in Aqaba while integrating them with Jordan's phosphate and fertilizer sectors. Third, establishing green industrial zones capable of attracting low-carbon manufacturing and export-oriented industries. Fourth, investing in research, education, and workforce development to build the human capital needed for the emerging green economy. Finally, forging long-term strategic partnerships with Europe and Asia, which are expected to become among the world's largest importers of green hydrogen and clean fuels over the coming decades.
Success in the transition should be measured by its ability to transform clean energy into higher value-added production, advanced industries, new exports, and highly productive employment. Just as oil formed the backbone of the global economy during the twentieth century, clean energy and green industries could become the defining economic drivers of the twenty-first.
If Jordan succeeds in seizing this moment by providing a stable investment climate and aligning its energy ambitions with a coherent industrial policy, it will not merely follow the global energy transition—it could emerge as one of its principal beneficiaries. In such a future, sunshine and wind will no longer be viewed simply as natural resources, but as strategic economic assets capable of driving growth, raising productivity, expanding exports, creating quality jobs, and placing Jordan on acompetitive and sustainable development path for decades to come.
The writer is a Former Jordanian Minister of State for Economic Affairs.
Oil symbolized economic power and geopolitical influence throughout the twentieth century. Every disruption in oil supply translated into soaring prices, slower global growth, and heightened uncertainty in financial markets. Yet the recent conflict following the US and Israeli military strikes on Iran delivered a different lesson. Despite the disruption of more than ten million barrels of oil per day through the Strait of Hormuz, along with nearly one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas trade, oil prices never reached the levels many analysts had anticipated. Instead, they peaked at around $104 per barrel before gradually retreating.
This does not mean the world escaped the crisis unscathed. Poorer Asian economies bore much of the burden through rising diesel prices and the prospect of higher food costs resulting from disruptions in fertilizer trade. The broader message, however, is that the global economy has become far less vulnerable to oil shocks than it was only a few decades ago.
Several factors explain this resilience, including diversified transportation routes, the use of strategic petroleum reserves, and the reallocation of energy imports. Yet the most significant factor has been the gradual transformation of the global energy mix. Renewable energy—and solar power in particular—has become a central pillar of the world's energy system. Recent reports indicate that renewables have surpassed coal for the first time in more than a century as the world's largest source of electricity generation, while solar power alone accounted for roughly three-quarters of the increase in global electricity demand. Solar's contribution to electricity generation has expanded nearly nineteen-fold over the past decade.
Oil remains the world's most heavily traded commodity, but its relative importance continues to decline. During the oil embargo of the 1970s, petroleum supplied nearly half of global energy demand. Today, according to the International Energy Agency, its share has fallen below 30 percent. This does not signal the end of the oil era, but it does indicate that the world is steadily moving toward a more diversified energy system with less dependence on a single fuel.
The story of solar energy demonstrates that major economic transformations are driven not only by natural resources, but also by visionary policies, innovation, and long-term investment. Since the first practical solar cell was developed in the 1950s, leadership in the industry has shifted from the United States to Japan, then Germany, and ultimately China, which successfully transformed innovation into mass production while dramatically reducing costs. Consequently, solar power has become one of the world's most competitive sources of electricity.
Will we merely observe this transition, or will we become one of its beneficiaries? In my view, Jordan's opportunity may be greater than many realize. If the twentieth century rewarded countries blessed with oil reserves, the twenty-first century may reward those capable of transforming abundant sunshine and wind into high-value industries and exports.
Jordan possesses several competitive advantages that position it well for this transition. It enjoys some of the world's highest levels of solar irradiation, promising wind resources, a strategic logistics hub in Aqaba, and an established phosphate and fertilizer industry. Together, these assets provide a strong foundation for developing a new economy centered on green hydrogen, green ammonia, and their downstream industries. This vision is already beginning to materialize through the approval of Jordan's first major green ammonia investment project in Aqaba, valued at more than US$1 billion, marking the country's entry into the global green fuels market.
However, success will not come simply from having sunshine and wind. Jordan's real competitive advantage lies not in exporting energy itself, but in transforming it into value-added industries. This means developing an integrated industrial ecosystem encompassing green hydrogen production, green ammonia manufacturing, low-carbon fertilizers, energy-intensive manufacturing powered by clean electricity, and advanced logistics and technology services. The greatest economic value will come from factories, supply chains, skilled employment, and high-value exports, not from exporting raw energy alone.
The world has undeniably entered a new era in which oil is no longer the undisputed king of energy markets. The defining question of the coming decades will no longer be who owns the largest oil reserves, but rather who can produce clean energy at the lowest cost and convert it into industries, exports, and quality jobs.
For Jordan, the opportunity is evident, but realizing it requires a clear execution strategy built around five integrated pillars. First, expanding renewable electricity generation to provide internationally competitive energy prices for industry. Second, accelerating green hydrogen and green ammonia projects in Aqaba while integrating them with Jordan's phosphate and fertilizer sectors. Third, establishing green industrial zones capable of attracting low-carbon manufacturing and export-oriented industries. Fourth, investing in research, education, and workforce development to build the human capital needed for the emerging green economy. Finally, forging long-term strategic partnerships with Europe and Asia, which are expected to become among the world's largest importers of green hydrogen and clean fuels over the coming decades.
Success in the transition should be measured by its ability to transform clean energy into higher value-added production, advanced industries, new exports, and highly productive employment. Just as oil formed the backbone of the global economy during the twentieth century, clean energy and green industries could become the defining economic drivers of the twenty-first.
If Jordan succeeds in seizing this moment by providing a stable investment climate and aligning its energy ambitions with a coherent industrial policy, it will not merely follow the global energy transition—it could emerge as one of its principal beneficiaries. In such a future, sunshine and wind will no longer be viewed simply as natural resources, but as strategic economic assets capable of driving growth, raising productivity, expanding exports, creating quality jobs, and placing Jordan on acompetitive and sustainable development path for decades to come.
The writer is a Former Jordanian Minister of State for Economic Affairs.
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Beyond the age of oil: Can Jordan be among the winners?
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