Between annexation and recognition: The new battle for the West Bank
With Israel’s move to storm Gaza City and the declared intention to annex the West Bank, the region is entering its most critical transformation since the wave of changes unleashed by the October 7 attack.
Israel’s shift in its approach toward Gaza, aimed at eliminating Hamas, has gone hand in hand with major escalatory steps in the West Bank. These measures are not mere military operations but rather signs of a final process targeting the Palestinian cause itself. This dynamic is pushing Arab states to search for a political rescue formula, primarily by seeking international recognition of a Palestinian state.
The Arab position led by Saudi Arabia has recently formed the nucleus of a serious movement, while signals coming from Abu Dhabi — particularly after the visit of UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed to Riyadh and his meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman — have added another dimension. The UAE may apply a different type of pressure on Israel, especially by threatening to suspend the Abraham Accords and the economic relations tied to them, both present and future.
The Abraham Accords remain unprecedented from Israel’s perspective, and a personal achievement for Netanyahu, who long viewed peace with Arab states as a way to bypass peace with the Palestinians. Thus, any threat to freeze or revoke these agreements represents a personal blow to him and places him under immense pressure. Yet the current political scene cannot be separated from the transformations imposed by October 7, where the dominance of security concerns and a sense of existential threat among Israelis has provided justification for extraordinary measures under the banner of safeguarding Israel and preventing future risks.
Within this framework, Israel’s security strategy has focused on reestablishing border control and preventing hostile actors from exploiting adjacent geographies — a logic already applied in places like Syria. But in the cases of Gaza and the West Bank, the right-wing agenda has found the perfect opportunity to impose its political vision, which aligns closely with this security strategy. This is particularly evident in policies of reshaping geography and imposing demographic changes under security pretexts — essentially a strategy of territorial transformation and demographic displacement. As such, Israel’s current priorities seem to lean more toward consolidating new realities on the ground than pursuing peace agreements, especially those seen as optional arrangements, such as with Gulf states. Some even argue that alternative peace avenues could be explored with other Muslim countries, such as Indonesia or Azerbaijan, keeping the Abraham Accords alive even if they are shaken with the Arab states that signed them.
The dominance of security over peace in Israel gives the right-wing agenda room to carry out irreversible steps, potentially legitimizing the annexation of the West Bank — or parts of it — as a reaction to moves toward recognizing a Palestinian state. Repeated statements by Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich reflect this orientation, signaling the emergence of a new reality on the ground at the expense of any hypothetical or optional peace.
From a realistic standpoint, the scene is further complicated by Washington’s unconditional support for Israeli policies, which leaves limited space for counteraction. While a unified Arab position could indeed matter, particularly if each state were to use its own leverage, this requires deep awareness and well-coordinated efforts to employ those tools in a collective, effective manner. Ultimately, the issue lies not only in Israel’s official declarations about annexation, but in the concrete measures already being implemented on the ground — and these must become the central focus of any Arab political response moving forward.
With Israel’s move to storm Gaza City and the declared intention to annex the West Bank, the region is entering its most critical transformation since the wave of changes unleashed by the October 7 attack.
Israel’s shift in its approach toward Gaza, aimed at eliminating Hamas, has gone hand in hand with major escalatory steps in the West Bank. These measures are not mere military operations but rather signs of a final process targeting the Palestinian cause itself. This dynamic is pushing Arab states to search for a political rescue formula, primarily by seeking international recognition of a Palestinian state.
The Arab position led by Saudi Arabia has recently formed the nucleus of a serious movement, while signals coming from Abu Dhabi — particularly after the visit of UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed to Riyadh and his meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman — have added another dimension. The UAE may apply a different type of pressure on Israel, especially by threatening to suspend the Abraham Accords and the economic relations tied to them, both present and future.
The Abraham Accords remain unprecedented from Israel’s perspective, and a personal achievement for Netanyahu, who long viewed peace with Arab states as a way to bypass peace with the Palestinians. Thus, any threat to freeze or revoke these agreements represents a personal blow to him and places him under immense pressure. Yet the current political scene cannot be separated from the transformations imposed by October 7, where the dominance of security concerns and a sense of existential threat among Israelis has provided justification for extraordinary measures under the banner of safeguarding Israel and preventing future risks.
Within this framework, Israel’s security strategy has focused on reestablishing border control and preventing hostile actors from exploiting adjacent geographies — a logic already applied in places like Syria. But in the cases of Gaza and the West Bank, the right-wing agenda has found the perfect opportunity to impose its political vision, which aligns closely with this security strategy. This is particularly evident in policies of reshaping geography and imposing demographic changes under security pretexts — essentially a strategy of territorial transformation and demographic displacement. As such, Israel’s current priorities seem to lean more toward consolidating new realities on the ground than pursuing peace agreements, especially those seen as optional arrangements, such as with Gulf states. Some even argue that alternative peace avenues could be explored with other Muslim countries, such as Indonesia or Azerbaijan, keeping the Abraham Accords alive even if they are shaken with the Arab states that signed them.
The dominance of security over peace in Israel gives the right-wing agenda room to carry out irreversible steps, potentially legitimizing the annexation of the West Bank — or parts of it — as a reaction to moves toward recognizing a Palestinian state. Repeated statements by Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich reflect this orientation, signaling the emergence of a new reality on the ground at the expense of any hypothetical or optional peace.
From a realistic standpoint, the scene is further complicated by Washington’s unconditional support for Israeli policies, which leaves limited space for counteraction. While a unified Arab position could indeed matter, particularly if each state were to use its own leverage, this requires deep awareness and well-coordinated efforts to employ those tools in a collective, effective manner. Ultimately, the issue lies not only in Israel’s official declarations about annexation, but in the concrete measures already being implemented on the ground — and these must become the central focus of any Arab political response moving forward.
With Israel’s move to storm Gaza City and the declared intention to annex the West Bank, the region is entering its most critical transformation since the wave of changes unleashed by the October 7 attack.
Israel’s shift in its approach toward Gaza, aimed at eliminating Hamas, has gone hand in hand with major escalatory steps in the West Bank. These measures are not mere military operations but rather signs of a final process targeting the Palestinian cause itself. This dynamic is pushing Arab states to search for a political rescue formula, primarily by seeking international recognition of a Palestinian state.
The Arab position led by Saudi Arabia has recently formed the nucleus of a serious movement, while signals coming from Abu Dhabi — particularly after the visit of UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed to Riyadh and his meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman — have added another dimension. The UAE may apply a different type of pressure on Israel, especially by threatening to suspend the Abraham Accords and the economic relations tied to them, both present and future.
The Abraham Accords remain unprecedented from Israel’s perspective, and a personal achievement for Netanyahu, who long viewed peace with Arab states as a way to bypass peace with the Palestinians. Thus, any threat to freeze or revoke these agreements represents a personal blow to him and places him under immense pressure. Yet the current political scene cannot be separated from the transformations imposed by October 7, where the dominance of security concerns and a sense of existential threat among Israelis has provided justification for extraordinary measures under the banner of safeguarding Israel and preventing future risks.
Within this framework, Israel’s security strategy has focused on reestablishing border control and preventing hostile actors from exploiting adjacent geographies — a logic already applied in places like Syria. But in the cases of Gaza and the West Bank, the right-wing agenda has found the perfect opportunity to impose its political vision, which aligns closely with this security strategy. This is particularly evident in policies of reshaping geography and imposing demographic changes under security pretexts — essentially a strategy of territorial transformation and demographic displacement. As such, Israel’s current priorities seem to lean more toward consolidating new realities on the ground than pursuing peace agreements, especially those seen as optional arrangements, such as with Gulf states. Some even argue that alternative peace avenues could be explored with other Muslim countries, such as Indonesia or Azerbaijan, keeping the Abraham Accords alive even if they are shaken with the Arab states that signed them.
The dominance of security over peace in Israel gives the right-wing agenda room to carry out irreversible steps, potentially legitimizing the annexation of the West Bank — or parts of it — as a reaction to moves toward recognizing a Palestinian state. Repeated statements by Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich reflect this orientation, signaling the emergence of a new reality on the ground at the expense of any hypothetical or optional peace.
From a realistic standpoint, the scene is further complicated by Washington’s unconditional support for Israeli policies, which leaves limited space for counteraction. While a unified Arab position could indeed matter, particularly if each state were to use its own leverage, this requires deep awareness and well-coordinated efforts to employ those tools in a collective, effective manner. Ultimately, the issue lies not only in Israel’s official declarations about annexation, but in the concrete measures already being implemented on the ground — and these must become the central focus of any Arab political response moving forward.
comments
Between annexation and recognition: The new battle for the West Bank
comments