Raad Mahmoud Al-Tal

The recent US decision to impose a 15 per cent tariff on Jordanian exports has drawn considerable attention in economic circles. When compared to tariffs on competing countries such as Vietnam (46 per cent), Bangladesh (35–37 per cent), and Egypt (around 10 per cent), it initially appears that Jordan holds a relatively better competitive position in the American market. However, this initial view requires deeper analysis beyond the raw numbers, considering the nature of global competition, the dynamics of the US market, and the competitive landscape Jordan faces.

This current "price advantage" offers Jordan a brief respite, especially in the garments and textiles sector, which forms the backbone of Jordanian exports to the United States. Yet, competitors have many tools at their disposal and will not remain passive. Economies like Vietnam and Bangladesh possess massive production capacities, flexible industrial structures, and integrated supply chains, enabling them to absorb tariff impacts by lowering prices, improving efficiency, or obtaining direct and indirect government support. Their economies benefit from economies of scale and robust supply chains that provide greater flexibility in responding to market changes. Egypt, despite having lower tariffs than Jordan, still holds a relatively limited share of the U.S. market, making the tariff effects on it different in nature.

The economies of scale these countries enjoy are a strong competitive weapon. Vietnam, facing tariffs up to 46 per cent on some products, can spread costs over huge production volumes, lowering unit costs. Bangladesh, despite higher tariffs (35–37 per cent), relies on low-cost production bases and broad support for its textile sector, allowing it to quickly adjust pricing strategies to maintain market shares.

Here lies Jordan’s biggest challenge: relying on an advantage stemming from an external political decision. Today's tariffs can be changed or removed tomorrow, and competitor responses may begin to emerge within months through price cuts, logistical moves, or new export alliances.

To turn this temporary opportunity into a lasting gain, Jordan must adopt a dual-track strategy. The first track involves short-term tactical measures such as providing temporary financial support to exporters, improving logistical efficiency to reduce shipping costs, and monitoring the U.S. market to counter dumping practices, especially from countries facing higher tariffs. The second track requires long-term structural reforms, including updating production lines, developing workforce skills to meet market standards, increasing local content in products, building Jordanian brands capable of global competition, and diversifying markets to reduce reliance on the U.S. alone.

Strengthening Jordan’s negotiation capacity in international trade is equally important. This demands specialized technical, economic, and legal teams to craft new agreements and expand preferential access opportunities, thereby protecting Jordanian exporters’ interests and supporting sustainable growth in export sectors.

The equation is clear: current tariffs grant Jordan a temporary price advantage compared to Vietnam and Bangladesh, but a smaller edge relative to Egypt. However, true competition is not decided by numbers alone, but by the economy’s ability to build lasting productive and marketing advantages.

If Jordan seizes this moment to build a more efficient production base and convert current price gains into real competitive strength, the new tariff could mark the start of an expansion phase in the U.S. market and possibly beyond. Otherwise, relying solely on temporary external circumstances risks losing market share as soon as the rules change.

Raad Mahmoud Al-Tal is Chair, Department of Economics – University of Jordan – r.tal@ju.edu