Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

Amid the latest regional developments, Jordan finds itself caught between two simultaneous and dangerous escalations, where political and security dynamics intersect: one to its north, stemming from the evolving situation in southern Syria, and the other to its west, driven by Israeli escalatory measures and threats of annexing parts of the West Bank.

Israel’s strategic calculations in southwestern Syria appear aimed at establishing a demilitarized buffer zone along the Golan Heights. The failure of the Syrian government to reach a consensual arrangement in recent months has led to the deployment of the “protection of the Druze” narrative as a pressure tool to block any military repositioning favorable to Damascus. For now, this has sustained fragmentation in the southern territories. However, this strategy carries the dangerous potential of stoking sectarian tensions and igniting a prolonged conflict.

The ongoing disintegration of southwestern Syria opens uncontested areas, which in turn become fertile ground for maneuvering and exploitation by jihadist groups and non-state actors. As is well known, the collapse of state structures in Syria in the post-Assad phase has created major security vacuums, rapidly filled by warring militias—chief among them, extremist Sunni groups that share ideology and tactics with transnational networks that have turned Syrian chaos into a base for recruitment, training, and the deployment of operational cells near Jordan’s borders. This heightens the likelihood of these zones evolving into hotbeds of sectarian strife or platforms for launching attacks against vital interests in the region, placing Jordan as a direct recipient of the consequences of the Syrian crisis on every level.

On the West Bank front, Israel’s approach is no less alarming. The growing discourse around redrawing the border with Jordan based on Israeli security doctrine coincides with on-the-ground steps to create a buffer zone, alongside declared intentions to annex parts of the West Bank. This scenario poses threats comparable to those unfolding in southern Syria and signals consequences for Jordan across geographic, demographic, security, and even political dimensions.

Israel’s push to establish “safe zones” along both its borders with Syria and Jordan suggests a shift toward profound geographic and political restructuring—one that would keep these areas under the control of forces that are either non-hostile or neutral toward Israel. This makes the nature of this escalation qualitatively distinct from previous phases, both in method and in likely outcomes.

At this critical juncture, Jordan is at the heart of a complex web of regional tensions. It faces indirect pressure from Israeli military strategy in southern Syria, rising Iranian activity in the Damascus and Anbar regions, and an expanding jihadist threat that may take fluid forms and infiltrate through ideologically aligned cross-border networks, viewing Jordan as either an alternative foothold or an extension of their sphere of influence.

In light of this, internal stability emerges as Jordan’s foremost challenge, and indeed, the defining theme of the next phase. This necessitates a qualitative shift in official discourse and a fresh, unconventional approach to managing domestic crises. While raising public awareness about the magnitude of external threats is crucial, it must be coupled with addressing the root causes of internal tension—be it through meaningful economic reform to ease citizen hardship, combating extremism, or mitigating widespread frustration. Cultivating positive internal sentiment is among the most powerful tools for strengthening national resilience against external shocks.

Accordingly, serious attention must turn inward. Strengthening Jordan’s internal front must become an absolute priority through concrete, tangible steps that citizens can feel in their daily lives—on economic, service-related, social, and political levels—to contain and prevent the spillover of escalating regional tensions.